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Technological Unemployment News and Discussions

technological unemployment automation Luddites technism Venus Project robots basic income 4th Industrial Revolution unemployment artificial intelligence

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#241
wjfox

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Amazon has already begun automating its white-collar jobs

 

June 14, 2018

 

Algorithms have usurped Amazon’s retail decision-makers.

The e-commerce company once relied on humans to predict demand of certain products, such as anticipating and ordering a glut of the season’s hottest toys ahead of the holiday season. But a report from Bloomberg June 13 shows that the decision-making process has slowly transitioned towards automated ordering and communication with manufacturers, leaving humans in the lurch.

This trend isn’t surprising at an automation-minded company like Amazon, but it’s indicative of a wider trend in analytics-based jobs: The algorithms are coming. Whether it’s insurance adjusting or product buying like Amazon’s workers, there could be software that does an increasingly better job for a lower cost than a human salary.

 

https://qz.com/13049...te-collar-jobs/


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#242
tomasth

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So its more automation , like the cotton jin or ATM ?

 

the interesting part is

 

originally could be overridden by humans if they thought there was a mistake. But as the algorithms proved their worth, it became necessary for employees to justify why they were overriding the software

 

So any human in the loop system eventualy will have to justify overriding the software , are there fields were it will not despite superior decisions ? (weapon systems ? medical ?)



#243
wjfox

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Robots will lead to more human trafficking, slavery, report says

 

July 17th, 2018 at 9:49 am

 

Tens of millions of workers could lose their jobs to automation, particularly in southeast Asia, over the next 20 years.

 

Garment workers among those most at risk of losing their jobs, finding few low-skill alternatives and facing exploitation, according to the Verisk Maplecroft report.

 

The rise of robot manufacturing will dramatically alter the labor market in southeast Asia and result in a spike in human trafficking, slavery and other labor abuses, according to a report released Thursday.

 

The “Human Rights Outlook 2018″ report from corporate risk-analysis consultancy Verisk Maplecroft plays out the scenarios of a United Nations prediction that 56 percent of workers in Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam will lose their jobs to automated alternatives over the next two decades.

 

Those countries are specifically at risk for increased slavery and human trafficking due to the “dependence of the workforce on low-skilled jobs and existing high levels of labor rights violations,” the report said.

 

http://www.impactlab...ry-report-says/

 

 

IMG_7854.jpg



#244
tomasth

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Why increace in slavery and human trafficking and labor rights violations , if robots do the work instead ? Isn't the point of robot introduction , the replacement of low-skilled workers ?


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#245
starspawn0

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Perhaps because, as cheap as robots are, they aren't cheaper than slaves.

#246
starspawn0

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One assumption that people make, in arguing that technological unemployment won't be an issue in the future, is that human wants and needs are infinite -- there is no limit to what we desire. I am not sure that claim holds up, for a number of reasons that I would like to discuss:


1. It has been shown that people can be manipulated by propoganda, so it's not necessarily their needs that we are talking about, but what marketers and propagandists want them to buy:

https://www.gsb.stan...mass-persuasion

This kind of runs counter to what people in marketing science say. They write and speak about underlying user wants and needs, and that the advertisement is just about tapping into those desires that are already there -- that they aren't making people buy things they don't already want.



2. People only have a finite number of hours in the day, so can only experience a limited number of things. An hour spent watching Netflix, say, is an hour NOT spent playing with the computer. They can try to do both at once; but will not get full value out of the computer or Netflix.

So, as time goes on, and new products are created, old ones necessarily must die, due to the limits of human attention.

Now, given that robots are able to replace more and more human labor, in order for employment to remain high, it must be the case that the things we purchase become harder and harder to make over time (requiring humans and robots, in combination, to make), including insubstantial products like "service" -- it's not merely that somebody has a new idea, and everyone goes for that; it's that the new thing is much harder to make than a few generations ago.

But if things become harder and harder to make, and become more and more complicated, we start to bump up against fundamental human cognitive limits to tell whether one product is really better than another. Can you tell the difference between a 12 megapixel image and a 24 megapixel image, and does it add much extra value to go with 24 megapixels?

Once we reach those limits, the human labor force will be in serious trouble -- unless we upgrade our brains or something, so that we can perceive the subtle differences between the things we purchase.

I think we are already bumping up against these fundamental limits of human cognition in a few product categories.


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#247
Alislaws

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Why increace in slavery and human trafficking and labor rights violations , if robots do the work instead ? Isn't the point of robot introduction , the replacement of low-skilled workers ?

 

Essentially, if things go badly these countries will likely have large numbers of completely desperate people, and that will make all sorts of horrible exploitative things way easier.

 

Even for those who can still find work, work conditions at the jobs that remain will get worse, pay will drop and generally every possible corner will be cut to keep people competitive with the machines. If they don't like it, there will be thousands of jobless people ready to take their place. which is why working conditions will get worse. 

 

Not so sure about the mechanisms that will lead to increased slavery and human trafficking. Except that increased desperation leads to increased crime.



#248
tomasth

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Consumer damands increase

cognitive limits to tell whether one product is really better than another

 

That is why there are tools that help , microscope goes beyond human eye.

 

Consumer can always ask more.



#249
Alislaws

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Consumer damands increase

cognitive limits to tell whether one product is really better than another

 

That is why there are tools that help , microscope goes beyond human eye.

 

Consumer can always ask more.

If you have 2 phones, A and B

 

A price= $500, B price =$1000

 

The difference between the phones is screen quality and resolution. You need a microscope to tell the difference between phone A and phone B.

 

Which one do you buy?

 

For most people it would be the cheaper one, since they couldn't tell the difference. For only a few people the expensive/better one would be worth it, just to have the better one. 



#250
tomasth

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The microscope example was for the worker. If the product that is harder to make you need a microscope or any super human capability enhancement , then you will use it.

 

The consumer  will ask for a better and better product , even if it requires super human abilities to understand , as long as he get something out of it.

 

If a high resolution phone is a status symbol , a consumer will pay for the expensive one.

 

 

Maybe in the future an AI will do most of the production , and the only things consumers will pay for , is something that is totaly unknowable to them , but it distinguish them from other consumers in importent ways.



#251
Nerd

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Robots will lead to more human trafficking, slavery, report says

 

July 17th, 2018 at 9:49 am

 

Tens of millions of workers could lose their jobs to automation, particularly in southeast Asia, over the next 20 years.

 

Garment workers among those most at risk of losing their jobs, finding few low-skill alternatives and facing exploitation, according to the Verisk Maplecroft report.

 

The rise of robot manufacturing will dramatically alter the labor market in southeast Asia and result in a spike in human trafficking, slavery and other labor abuses, according to a report released Thursday.

 

The “Human Rights Outlook 2018″ report from corporate risk-analysis consultancy Verisk Maplecroft plays out the scenarios of a United Nations prediction that 56 percent of workers in Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam will lose their jobs to automated alternatives over the next two decades.

 

Those countries are specifically at risk for increased slavery and human trafficking due to the “dependence of the workforce on low-skilled jobs and existing high levels of labor rights violations,” the report said.

 

http://www.impactlab...ry-report-says/

 

 

IMG_7854.jpg

What if automation took over most jobs, but we still let people have jobs if they want to?

 

Someone doesn't want a job = Use a robot instead

 

Someone wants the job = Use them instead of a robot



#252
wjfox

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Fear not humans: Artificial intelligence to create millions of jobs, predicts PwC

 

21 Jul, 2018

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs as they displace over the next 20 years, according to a report by audit firm PwC which focused mainly on the United Kingdom.

The research found that while AI could displace roughly seven million jobs in the country, it could also create 7.2 million roles, resulting in a modest net boost of around 200,000 jobs. It has also estimated that about 20 percent of jobs would be automated over the next 20 years and no sector would be unaffected.

Technologies such as robotics, drones and driverless vehicles would replace human workers in some areas, but also create many additional jobs as productivity and real incomes rise and new and better products are developed.

 

https://www.rt.com/b...e-creates-jobs/

 

 

DceoEM_X0AA9YWv.jpg

 

 

---

 

 

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs as they displace over the next 20 years

 

 

*rolls eyes*

 

Yeah, right...


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#253
Sciencerocks

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I personally think it's a very good thing that jobs will disappear. We need to free people from drudgery and wage slavery, and move towards a post-scarcity economy. In the next couple of centuries I foresee a world that resembles the "Culture" novels by Iain M Banks.

 

 I agree 100%. We need to use A.i and robotics to take over the labor that allows humanity to be free of wage slavery....Maybe we can develop an economy that allows all to be truly free.


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#254
funkervogt

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Fear not humans: Artificial intelligence to create millions of jobs, predicts PwC

 

21 Jul, 2018

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs as they displace over the next 20 years, according to a report by audit firm PwC which focused mainly on the United Kingdom.

The research found that while AI could displace roughly seven million jobs in the country, it could also create 7.2 million roles, resulting in a modest net boost of around 200,000 jobs. It has also estimated that about 20 percent of jobs would be automated over the next 20 years and no sector would be unaffected.

Technologies such as robotics, drones and driverless vehicles would replace human workers in some areas, but also create many additional jobs as productivity and real incomes rise and new and better products are developed.

 

https://www.rt.com/b...e-creates-jobs/

 

 

DceoEM_X0AA9YWv.jpg

 

 

---

 

 

 

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs as they displace over the next 20 years

 

 

*rolls eyes*

 

Yeah, right...

Over the next 20 years, we could break even overall. But someday...



#255
Alislaws

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Something like 5.8 million people in the UK employed in the:

 

Wholesale, retail & repair of motor vehicles

And

Transport & storage

 

Industries (the ONS Data I found does not break it down by much detail) but I'd say at least 80% of jobs in these areas would be automatable when driverless cars enter widespread use.

 

Also the 7 million people who lose the jobs will not be particularly skilled, and the 7 million new jobs will all be highly skilled. 


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#256
wjfox

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Many populations fear big job loss from automation: survey

 

13 September 2018 - 20H30

 

NEW YORK (AFP) -

The public is broadly fearful that automation will lead to significant job losses, with many populations skeptical the technologies will boost economic efficiency, according to a survey of 10 countries released Thursday.

The survey, by the Pew Research Center, revealed some variation among the countries polled, with Greece, South Africa and Argentina expressing the highest degree of certainty on the displacement of human workers by technology.

But large majorities in all 10 countries agreed that automation would "definitely" or "probably" lead to significant job losses. The lowest percentage was the United States, with 65 percent, the report said.

Large majorities in all 10 countries also agreed people would have a hard time finding work and that inequality would worsen due to automation and artificial intelligence.

 

https://www.france24...tomation-survey



#257
Nerd

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Fear not humans: Artificial intelligence to create millions of jobs, predicts PwC

 

21 Jul, 2018

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs as they displace over the next 20 years, according to a report by audit firm PwC which focused mainly on the United Kingdom.

The research found that while AI could displace roughly seven million jobs in the country, it could also create 7.2 million roles, resulting in a modest net boost of around 200,000 jobs. It has also estimated that about 20 percent of jobs would be automated over the next 20 years and no sector would be unaffected.

Technologies such as robotics, drones and driverless vehicles would replace human workers in some areas, but also create many additional jobs as productivity and real incomes rise and new and better products are developed.

 

https://www.rt.com/b...e-creates-jobs/

 

 

DceoEM_X0AA9YWv.jpg

 

 

---

 

 

 

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will generate as many jobs as they displace over the next 20 years

 

 

*rolls eyes*

 

Yeah, right...

Over the next 20 years, we could break even overall. But someday...

 

I wish people would have  bit of imagination with this stuff. Instead of defaulting to,"this thing is bad because X always works this way", think of ways around it, or ways to have robot and human jobs exist at the same time. 

 

I don't get why this is so scary to people too, like what's wrong with not having a job? You get more free time and shit. I like how it's acceptable in society to complain about your job, but once you complain about having to have  job at all, you're stupid and lazy and stuff. Which, tbf, I am and I hate myself for it.



#258
wjfox

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I don't get why this is so scary to people too, like what's wrong with not having a job?

 

Because the Right hates and fears the poor, unemployed, etc. and will oppose a basic income.



#259
bgates276

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The thing is, if people don't have money to spend, because they have lost their jobs, and it is due to automation, who are the companies going to sell their products to? That's right, no one. The companies, in order to stay in business, will therefore be forced to lower their prices to still make things affordable for people. And if machines can do it so cheaply, why wouldn't that be the case? Isn't that, afterall what we want? To eventually not have jobs, and to make things affordable? If people truly believe that automation will provide abundance, than a UBI is pointless.

 

The end goal of any system should be to make things more efficient. Will giving people 'free money' make things more efficient? No, it will have the opposite effect. We will experience inflation. The value of the dollar will go down. Instead of absolute monetary worth as measured in fiat currency, people should be thinking more in terms of 'financial position', which is more relative, and which indeed is what accounting, business, and economics is all about. 

 

Think about this for second, if you are eligible for a UBI, but so is everyone else, has your position really improved? No, the only thing that has happened is that your metric of worth (Ie. money) has decreased in value.   



#260
tomasth

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The biggest problem is if it will be too gradual and too un alarming.

There is a lot of uncertinty about many things regarding global warming , even more so with Technological Unemployment.

 

Its going to be more of the same , as mundane as it could be , which is how tragedies happen.

 

Why fo for UBI (or any other way to address this) if its only a few jobs and there are new ones ?

By the time that it apear to be a problem its too far gone.







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: technological unemployment, automation, Luddites, technism, Venus Project, robots, basic income, 4th Industrial Revolution, unemployment, artificial intelligence

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