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US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts

Peak Oil Resources

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16 replies to this topic

#1
Ru1138

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http://www.theguardi...outs?CMP=twt_fd

 

I hate to say I told you so, but...

 

In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed.

 

Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this, this, this and this.

 

Well damn... this just made my day even worse.


What difference does it make?


#2
zEVerzan

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Well when the blackouts occur, there will be an energy revolution, and it may or may not be civilized.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#3
tierbook

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Interesting.... if this article is credible and makes it on to a major news site then it's likely that you would see a lot more solar in the US.



#4
Maximus

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Not sure if I should be ecstatic or scared about this. On one hand we might finally see the end of the oil age, but on the other we could also see widespread unrest if energy demands cannot be met. What a time to be living in.



#5
Ru1138

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Nobody seems to be paying attention to the elephant in the room.

 

When your oil supply is so far gone that you're suffering blackouts, there's a good chance we can wave goodbye to industrial civilization.

 

Longer term we might even go extinct.


What difference does it make?


#6
zEVerzan

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Nobody seems to be paying attention to the elephant in the room.

 

When your oil supply is so far gone that you're suffering blackouts, there's a good chance we can wave goodbye to industrial civilization.

 

Longer term we might even go extinct.

 

Probably not, I bet.

 

At that point, there would be HUGE population drops, yes.

 

But there would still be some energy left, and the oil tycoons' power would have all but disappeared since they can't meet demand. When that happens, most resources would be diverted to creating more sustainable power systems, and there would be pockets of civilization left around the world; city states, rationing solar, wind, nuclear, and hydroelectric power, devoted to rebuilding the global world.

 

It would set us back considerably, and it would be our darkest hour, but we would rebuild. Only the strongest, wisest, and most well-informed would survive such an ordeal. It would be by no means the end of humanity, but we would finally break free and get our priorities straight, and colonize the solar system even.

 

I tell you, this whole Negative Nancy thing you've got going on... it has to stop. It's so easy to despair at the first sign of trepidation, but it takes courage to believe in the power of humanity. The only reason we're here today is because humans are adaptable as f*ck. We can make it, we just have to try.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#7
Ru1138

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I tell you, this whole Negative Nancy thing you've got going on... it has to stop. It's so easy to despair at the first sign of trepidation, but it takes courage to believe in the power of humanity. The only reason we're here today is because humans are adaptable as f*ck. We can make it, we just have to try.

Sorry. It's just that some of my friends are having a rough time (one of them seems to be suicidal right now), so I can't help but feel a bit down right now.


What difference does it make?


#8
zEVerzan

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I tell you, this whole Negative Nancy thing you've got going on... it has to stop. It's so easy to despair at the first sign of trepidation, but it takes courage to believe in the power of humanity. The only reason we're here today is because humans are adaptable as f*ck. We can make it, we just have to try.

Sorry. It's just that some of my friends are having a rough time (one of them seems to be suicidal right now), so I can't help but feel a bit down right now.

 

 

I understand. Try to stay strong though. Depression is a clinical illness, so it's best to push them toward the direction of a professional.

 

In the meantime, go read in the park/backyard on a sunny day when you feel down! Exercise a bit! Have a good meal! The combination of vitamin D, exercise, and proper nutrition makes for a happy human and reduces stress, at least for me.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#9
Ru1138

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I understand. Try to stay strong though. Depression is a clinical illness, so it's best to push them toward the direction of a professional.
 
In the meantime, go read in the park/backyard on a sunny day when you feel down! Exercise a bit! Have a good meal! The combination of vitamin D, exercise, and proper nutrition makes for a happy human and reduces stress, at least for me.


Understood.


What difference does it make?


#10
Ryan94

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This whole forum are negative nancys.

"Oh humans are like, useless pathetic apes with no future. Lets all get buttfucked by our own AI and then just kill ourselves".
- The FT forum

#11
zEVerzan

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Well said, Glorious Leader.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+

#12
Unity

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This whole forum are negative nancys.

"Oh humans are like, useless pathetic apes with no future. Lets all get buttfucked by our own AI and then just kill ourselves".
- The FT forum

 

That was funny, but humor aside it provides no solutions.  Despite humor being the best medicine I would rather have a doctor.



#13
Futurist

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I tell you, this whole Negative Nancy thing you've got going on... it has to stop. It's so easy to despair at the first sign of trepidation, but it takes courage to believe in the power of humanity. The only reason we're here today is because humans are adaptable as f*ck. We can make it, we just have to try.

Sorry. It's just that some of my friends are having a rough time (one of them seems to be suicidal right now), so I can't help but feel a bit down right now.

 

 

I understand. Try to stay strong though. Depression is a clinical illness, so it's best to push them toward the direction of a professional.

 

In the meantime, go read in the park/backyard on a sunny day when you feel down! Exercise a bit! Have a good meal! The combination of vitamin D, exercise, and proper nutrition makes for a happy human and reduces stress, at least for me.

^

 

Agreed.

 

After previously, and arguably unnecessarily, severely panicking about peak oil back during the oil price spikes of the summer of 2008, I've learned that it is best to let events take their course and to ignore the doomsayers. Rather, let our politicians work their butts off figuring this out.



#14
Maximus

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If our civilization collapses because of these oil tycoons, who is up to hunt these bastards down once we regress back to the pre-industrial era? Anyone? Republicans are fair game too!



#15
tierbook

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If our civilization collapses because of these oil tycoons, who is up to hunt these bastards down once we regress back to the pre-industrial era? Anyone? Republicans are fair game too!

Up first is your prime minister....



#16
Paradosi

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If our civilization collapses because of these oil tycoons, who is up to hunt these bastards down once we regress back to the pre-industrial era? Anyone? Republicans are fair game too!

 

You make it sound like the Democrats aren't just as much corporate apologists like the Republicans, they're just less overt.

 

The two parties in the US largely differ on rhetoric, in practice they're pretty much the same entity.



#17
matthewpapa

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There will not be doom. There will not be blackouts.

 

Energy from these fuels will just become more expensive by the day until another source becomes more economical. We will not run out of energy any time soon, But we may run out of cheap energy until new energy sources become more widespread. We will learn to make do and adapt.







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