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Population based past timeline


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#1
explorer154

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Last year I made an interesting past timeline, but I forgot about it. Now found that notebook.

In this timeline, I diveded the recorded human history in 10 periods, with the same number of people living in each period.

Since the world population was lower in past periods, the old periods were longer (It took more time for the same amount of people to accumulate). I don't remember exactly if I used just number of people, or people/years, (i.e. the number of years they lived) to calculate periods, but in both cases the point is similar.

 

The idea is, for example, now, in 10 years happens much more events, because there is much more people, and the number of years lived by humanity, in 10 years now, is much greater than in the past. So with that much more time available, now, in 10 years can happen much more change then in the past.

 

I got date for population from Wikipedia, and I made estimates for every single year in excel, from the data that was given.

 

Anyway, here are my resuts. (It's quite strinking that those periods correspond quite well with some established historical periods, which I will give in brackets)

 

I. period: 4000 BC - 389 BC       ( Early civilizations. Eastern absolute monarchies.)

II. period: 389 BC - 374 AD    (Classical antiquity. Greece and Rome)

III. period: 374 - 909       ( Early middle ages)

IV. period: 909 - 1290    (High middle ages)

V. period: 1290 - 1543      (Transition to modern era, humanism and renaissance)

VI. period: 1543 - 1742   (Early modern period)

VII. period: 1742 - 1878      (Enlightenment, scientific revolution, industrial revolution, bourgeois revolutions)

VIII period: 1878 - 1953       (World in conflict, re-structuring the world, world wars, period of strongest scientific progress. Most of the contemporary institutions and customs established)

IX period: 1953 - 1990            (Cold war, space race and arms race)

X period: 1990 - 2013         (Informational revolution, post cold war world)

 

Using the same logic, the next period, XI. should last even shorter, and bring the same amount of change as the any of the previous periods. They all usually brought the same amount of change, but now change is faster, because periods are shorter.

 

So period number XI. could be, say, 2014 - 2030 maybe... Just guessing, didn't do complete population extrapolation for that period.

 

Anyway just to make the whole idea clear once more--- in each of these periods lived the same number of people. And the assumption was that with the same number of people being present in one period, the same amount of change will occur. So even though period no. 1 lasts more than 3000 years, the same number of people lived in that period as in period No. 10 which lasted just 23 years. And the hypothesis, is that the same amount of change occurred in both periods. What used to take 3500+ years, now happens in 2 decades, just because there are more people around.



#2
Jakob

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Interesting. Though I'd suggest 2014-2029 not 2030. In this period, the internet is everywhere and AI starts to become seriously useful, culminating with human-level AI (according to FT)



#3
raxo2222

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When it will be one year periods? Or one day?

Lemme see on grapher what kind is this trend..

Apparently its faster than exponential.

Here is graph, that I made from this data above: http://www25.zippysh...97773/file.html
Graph is small free software that is used to make... graphes.

 

Its interesting idea ;)


Any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic.* - A. Clarke
Any magic sufficiently analyzed is indistinguishable from technology.** - Somewhere from Internet

*Relatively, comparing to rest of world. Go back in time with modern tech. **Lets assume its working only in fantasy/simulated world. Go forward in time with unicorns.


#4
explorer154

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When it will be one year periods? Or one day?

It all depends on world population, as the trend of population growth is slowing down, we can't expect periods to become much shorter quickly.

If population  stops growing and stabilizes at, say, 8-9 billion, we'll have succession of the same length periods, which will be around 15-20 years long.

If the population starts decreasing, periods will become longer again.



#5
StanleyAlexander

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This is an interesting idea, and seems like a good place to start, but to really quantify change you'd need to take in some more factors.  For example, once a technology is developed it enables its users to achieve a greater rate of change than was possible before.  This kind of thing may be emergent from population growth, but once it exists it doesn't depend on population growth to fuel change.


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#6
caltrek

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Interesting concept. Oh, other people have said that already. Sorry about that.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#7
funkervogt

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http://www.singulari...rts/page17.html






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