Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

80,000 Person Mars Colony Possible by 2040

Mars Space Colonization Elon Musk

  • Please log in to reply
66 replies to this topic

#21
Ru1138

Ru1138

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,190 posts
  • LocationIllinois

We can't get 80,000 people to Mars by 2040. Assuming that nobody will get there before 2020, we'd have to move 4000 people a year over there. We simply don't have that many sufficiently large spacecraft.

 

*Cough*


What difference does it make?


#22
Jakob

Jakob

    Stable Genius

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,154 posts

 

We can't get 80,000 people to Mars by 2040. Assuming that nobody will get there before 2020, we'd have to move 4000 people a year over there. We simply don't have that many sufficiently large spacecraft.

 

*Cough*

 

That's, like, one launch every 30 seconds. I'm not optimistic, but this is Elon Musk, so who knows?



#23
JCO

JCO

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,032 posts
  • LocationWA, USA

I do not think that 80,000 people will be on Mars this century. Probably next century

 

The best guess we can give to what colonization of Mars may look like is the colonization of the New World. The population records for the British colonies that became part of the united states went from 350 to over 100,000 in just 60 years. This number was most likely a count of white land owning men and did not include any information about French, Spanish or the other British colonies.

 

I believe it is entirely possible to have 80,000 humans on Mars by 2040 but I feel sure that it will be too much effort for too little return for it to be done. However I do believe we will likely have very long term or permanent habitation on Mars by 2040 - 2060. If something like the space elevator is implemented early in the later half of this century getting to Mars would become easier and safer than it was to cross the Atlantic 400 years earlier. I would be disappointed if by 2099 there were not ~100,000 people on Mars or orbiting it.

 

http://en.wikipedia....e_United_States

 

Well, the thing is, if we don't colonize other planets, the mankind will go extinct very soon.

No. Even in a nuclear war, a few million people at the very least would survive.

 

 

I do not think that going extinct 'very soon' is likely. However contrary to the popular view I do not believe that humanity is its own worst enemy. Even though I think it is almost impossible for us to cause our own extinction I do believe their are other source that could. The asteroid that is believed to be responsible for the dino's extinction and the super volcano that is thought to almost wipe out humanity 70,000 years ago. http://en.wikipedia....astrophe_theory

 

The fact is the sooner we get established in space the safer humanity's future will be.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#24
Fitzlovos

Fitzlovos

    New Member

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 3 posts

And what would these "colonies" look like?  Would they be scattered across the surface?  Orbiting the planet?  How would they safeguard against the increased radiation?  How would people function within lower gravity?  These issues would need to be addressed prior to any extensive colonization initiative.  And it's nearly impossible to expect that they'll be addressed effectively within the next twenty years. 

 

I personally believe that we will establish colonies on Mars.  These colonies will expand into cities and, eventually, metropolitan areas of significant size and considerable resources.  But I don't think that we'll see substantial progress on this front for another century or so. 



#25
JCO

JCO

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,032 posts
  • LocationWA, USA

And what would these "colonies" look like?  Would they be scattered across the surface?  Orbiting the planet?  How would they safeguard against the increased radiation?  How would people function within lower gravity?  These issues would need to be addressed prior to any extensive colonization initiative.  And it's nearly impossible to expect that they'll be addressed effectively within the next twenty years. 

 

I personally believe that we will establish colonies on Mars.  These colonies will expand into cities and, eventually, metropolitan areas of significant size and considerable resources.  But I don't think that we'll see substantial progress on this front for another century or so. 

 

I think most of the questions you suggest will be ones part of the details of the colonization effort. The first will be dictated by how other problems are solved and is irrelevant anyway. The next 2 are 'yes'. The last 2 are fairly minor issues compared bigger questions that need to be answered.

 

The biggest question that needs to be answered before we colonize Mars is how will the colony turn a profit? If you think I am being 'capitalistic' or something answer me this, how many people will go somewhere they "CAN'T" earn a living? No colony has ever survived that has not turned a profit for its sponsors. 

Another important question is how do we a self sustaining closed environment? We have never done that.

The psychological pressures may be a greater danger then the physical threats, what will we do to find out the affects of isolation and close confinement?

What sort of government and legal system will we use? What ever it is it will likely need to be international. As every country will most likely want a piece of the action if every country just brings their legal code it will eventually lead to a lot of confusion.

 

As for the prediction of it taking over a century to send at least 80 K colonist to Mars I would point out that some estimates suggest almost a quarter million Europeans may have colonized the New World in the first century after Columbus.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#26
Fitzlovos

Fitzlovos

    New Member

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 3 posts

Economic considerations are secondary to what will always be humanity's paramount concern in any exploratory endeavor--namely, survival. 

 

Colonists who traveled to the New World certainly faced a litany of challenges; disease, starvation, and conflicts with the native population are only a few of the difficulties they encountered.  Yet these problems seem inconsequential when compared to the issues one would have to address in attempting to colonize Mars.  Those who crossed the Atlantic over five hundred years ago possessed their share of courage, but they never had to worry about their organs rupturing  within minutes of leaving their crafts.  Dust, radiation, and toxic air are just the beginning.  Lower gravity and temperatures of -50 to -100 degrees Fahrenheit pose additional dangers.  It is highly unlikely we will possess the capacity to construct sustainable colonies that safeguard their populations against these hazards within the next fifty or even one hundred years, nor is it probable that within this timeframe we will be able to create structures that house, nurture, and function within a climatically-perilous lower-gravity environment. 



#27
JCO

JCO

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,032 posts
  • LocationWA, USA

Fitzlovos - Do you know why most sailor of Columbus's time chose not to learn how to swim? If they fell overboard they prefered to drown quickly to the slow death that swimming promised. At that time leaving the ship unprepared was almost certain death. 

 

We have today the technology to construct the structures you described. A nuclear sub often spend weeks submerged in an environment that is often described as more hostile than outer space. The crew spend the entire voyage a short distance from a very strong radioactive source. Nasa has demonstrated that the issues related to low or no gravity can be dealt with by simple exercise.

 

By the way the organs rupturing is just a myth, a change of less than 15 psi is not enough to cause the eyeball to rupture much less an internal organ.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#28
Spacekitty

Spacekitty

    Dusk Cypher - Instigator of Transcendence

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 295 posts
  • LocationHuman Shell Unit Version 1.0

Frankly I dont see why there would be any real economic reasons for colonising mars. I actually have faith in the nature of humanity and choose to believe that well colonise mars and succeed purely because the demand of people desiring to live on mars is so great. Take the Mars-One mission so far. Those people got over        100 000 applicants from across the world to apply.

 

We may not have the technology or the power to do it now but who knows in a couple decades when were more technologically advanced. We lso must not forget that all humans are given the power to reproduce. What you think people wont go for long without having a little fun with eachother? Children are almost a certainty when it comes to humanity unless you send sterile humans, which destroys the whole point of colonisation. Children alone would count for a significant increase in population if the goal is to increase the population.

 

And what is this about a completely closed off environment? Dont we  do that on the ISS? they use electrolysis to generate the oxygen they need all the time! and the hydrogen is good for fuel as well and im sure it can be used to generate power cant it? And instead of spacing our turds, we can save them for the bacteria needed to enrich martian soil to grow food. Albeit its a smelly situation indeed.

 

The ISS has already proven we can survive in space, and its all the proof I need of a Martian or a Lunar Colony being viable. I know its enough for a lot of other people as well. Sure you'd be struggling to get people there, but with so much support for the idea, proven by Mars-One, I think we would have some politician make a good enough excuse to get to mars and everyone  would hail the lucky bugga with praise and worship :D

 

Doesnt economic work around supply and demand in a capitalist world? Well I see very little suppply, but quite a bit of  demand. And where theres demand, supply soon follows. Just take space tourism for example?


I will instigate the singularity!


#29
OrbitalResonance

OrbitalResonance

    Cosmic Emperor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,233 posts
  • LocationDeep Space

Well, economics applies to all systems.


We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers. - Carl Sagan


#30
Spacekitty

Spacekitty

    Dusk Cypher - Instigator of Transcendence

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 295 posts
  • LocationHuman Shell Unit Version 1.0

Well, economics applies to all systems.

 

for now it does. but thats not to say it  wont in the future :D


I will instigate the singularity!


#31
OrbitalResonance

OrbitalResonance

    Cosmic Emperor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,233 posts
  • LocationDeep Space

Not really, all economics is, is the study of how society uses resources and their alternative means. So even the most advanced of utopias would qualify as working within economics. It might use altered rules, but it would still involve using resources and could thus be called economics.


We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers. - Carl Sagan


#32
Jakob

Jakob

    Stable Genius

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,154 posts

BTW it's not known whether long-term exposure to Mars-level gravity has adverse affects or not.



#33
Spacekitty

Spacekitty

    Dusk Cypher - Instigator of Transcendence

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 295 posts
  • LocationHuman Shell Unit Version 1.0

BTW it's not known whether long-term exposure to Mars-level gravity has adverse affects or not.

 

Well it has to be better than no gravity at all like on the ISS where they ward off adverse affects with excersise.

 

Space... Rascist towards the chubby


I will instigate the singularity!


#34
Fitzlovos

Fitzlovos

    New Member

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 3 posts

Fitzlovos - Do you know why most sailor of Columbus's time chose not to learn how to swim? If they fell overboard they prefered to drown quickly to the slow death that swimming promised. At that time leaving the ship unprepared was almost certain death. 
 
We have today the technology to construct the structures you described. A nuclear sub often spend weeks submerged in an environment that is often described as more hostile than outer space. The crew spend the entire voyage a short distance from a very strong radioactive source. Nasa has demonstrated that the issues related to low or no gravity can be dealt with by simple exercise.


There's a massive difference between falling overboard on a ship and not being able to breathe air or even have a chance of surviving unassisted. Simply existing on Mars can be fatal.
 

By the way the organs rupturing is just a myth, a change of less than 15 psi is not enough to cause the eyeball to rupture much less an internal organ.


No, that's not true at all.

http://www.businessi...-on-mars-2013-9

#35
Maximus

Maximus

    Spaceman

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,867 posts
  • LocationCanada

 

Well, the thing is, if we don't colonize other planets, the mankind will go extinct very soon.

No. Even in a nuclear war, a few million people at the very least would survive.

 

But civilization wouldn't. And then we would have to start all over again. Nukes start flying, and you can kiss all this amazing technology goodbye.



#36
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,391 posts
  • LocationCanada

Economic considerations are secondary to what will always be humanity's paramount concern in any exploratory endeavor--namely, survival. 

 

Colonists who traveled to the New World certainly faced a litany of challenges; disease, starvation, and conflicts with the native population are only a few of the difficulties they encountered.  Yet these problems seem inconsequential when compared to the issues one would have to address in attempting to colonize Mars.  Those who crossed the Atlantic over five hundred years ago possessed their share of courage, but they never had to worry about their organs rupturing  within minutes of leaving their crafts.  Dust, radiation, and toxic air are just the beginning.  Lower gravity and temperatures of -50 to -100 degrees Fahrenheit pose additional dangers.  It is highly unlikely we will possess the capacity to construct sustainable colonies that safeguard their populations against these hazards within the next fifty or even one hundred years, nor is it probable that within this timeframe we will be able to create structures that house, nurture, and function within a climatically-perilous lower-gravity environment. 

 

There are no obvious threats to our survival by 2040, because of this economic concerns will be paramount in any long-term colonization of the Red Planet...



#37
JCO

JCO

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,032 posts
  • LocationWA, USA

Frankly I dont see why there would be any real economic reasons for colonising mars. I actually have faith in the nature of humanity and choose to believe that well colonise mars and succeed purely because the demand of people desiring to live on mars is so great. Take the Mars-One mission so far. Those people got over        100 000 applicants from across the world to apply.

 

 

The average job application receives around 250 applications. A high demand job can easily receive more than 1,000. Applying for Mars-One I doubt requires much commitment and I would rate it more like a sweepstakes application and I am surprised that the number is so low.

 

 

 

And what is this about a completely closed off environment? Dont we  do that on the ISS? they use electrolysis to generate the oxygen they need all the time! and the hydrogen is good for fuel as well and im sure it can be used to generate power cant it? And instead of spacing our turds, we can save them for the bacteria needed to enrich martian soil to grow food. Albeit its a smelly situation indeed.

 

The ISS is not even close to a closed system. Virtually all of the occupants food is supplied from Earth. This is also the case for the CO2 scrubbers and additional oxygen is also brought. At this time the inhabitants are extremely dependant on regular supply ships. A completely closed system would not require fresh supplies on a regular basis.

 

 

By the way the organs rupturing is just a myth, a change of less than 15 psi is not enough to cause the eyeball to rupture much less an internal organ.


No, that's not true at all.

http://www.businessi...-on-mars-2013-9

 

 

The quote you are referencing is from Chris Webster, a robotics engineering scientist not a biologist. A better reference for that actual effects of decompression is here: http://en.wikipedia..../Space_exposure

The only mention of possible organ rupture is related to the lungs if the person tries to hold their breath.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#38
Heathcliff

Heathcliff

    Supremacy Guardian

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 177 posts
  • LocationMirani, QLD, AUS

I think it's possible, except the 80,000 people part. No way will there be that many people on Mars so soon.

i agree a couple hundred at the most


time is a concept not reality the sun goes up and it goes down its as simple as that.

 


#39
Raklian

Raklian

    An Immortal In The Making

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,116 posts
  • LocationRaleigh, NC

What if at the very last minute, we added 80,000 all of sudden? hmm


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#40
Cosmic Cat

Cosmic Cat

    Hibernating

  • Validating
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,345 posts
  • Location-

I do not think that 80,000 people will be on Mars this century. Probably next century

 
The best guess we can give to what colonization of Mars may look like is the colonization of the New World. The population records for the British colonies that became part of the united states went from 350 to over 100,000 in just 60 years. This number was most likely a count of white land owning men and did not include any information about French, Spanish or the other British colonies.
 
I believe it is entirely possible to have 80,000 humans on Mars by 2040 but I feel sure that it will be too much effort for too little return for it to be done. However I do believe we will likely have very long term or permanent habitation on Mars by 2040 - 2060. If something like the space elevator is implemented early in the later half of this century getting to Mars would become easier and safer than it was to cross the Atlantic 400 years earlier. I would be disappointed if by 2099 there were not ~100,000 people on Mars or orbiting it.
 
http://en.wikipedia....e_United_States

Well they did have breathable air and arable land. Not to forget, there were already occupants when the British, spaniards, and french set their flag so it was very easy to adapt to the new environment. It would be very hard and expensive to house 80,000 with enough food, oxygen, and water to become self sufficient a couple light minutes away from earth on a literal cold, barren wasteland where the only way you could walk outside is with an exosuit.

A good example of when we might have situations where 80,000 can house in a matter of decades is if were Mars was Terminus. I feel it's the inhospitable environment that will set the challenge of housing a large town on a planet. In Terminus, there were at least safe temperatures and atmosphere. In mars those things are non-existent until we can provide a steady terraforming program. I think we need flexible and open access to the environment before we are able to settle in large numbers in a short period of time.





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Mars, Space Colonization, Elon Musk

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users