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80,000 Person Mars Colony Possible by 2040

Mars Space Colonization Elon Musk

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#61
Jakob

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The need for multi-planetary life is such BS.

Not of we wish to become an advanced civilization.



#62
JCO

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The need for multi-planetary life is such BS.

 

We will soon be able to predict any danger from space probably as much as 100 years before, and if we are talking about a nearby huge supernova, being on mars won't save us anyway. Mars is so uninhabitable that it would make a post apocalyptic earth seem like paradise to settle, so the global conflict argument collapses as well.

 

That aside, I am thrilled and excited that we are getting closer to mars. We don't do it because it is necessary, we do it because it is awesome, we do it because we are human beings and it is in our nature to be curious and wanting to conquer the cosmos.

 

I take it you have never heard of the three-body problem. http://en.wikipedia....ee-body_problem

In short it states that solving a problem for the motions of just 3 bodies interacting become so complex that predicting there accurately has no practical value. As you add additional bodies to the equation the problem becomes exponentially more complex. Even if we were able to solve the equation for the thousands of bodies that could be influence the events that could lead to an extinction event we would need to know all of the details of each bodies mass and trajectory. 

 

Then there are the events on Earth that could have significant effect on human survival. Super volcanos may sound like bad sci-fi but they do exist. Even a relatively limited geologic event on this scale would would be negatively affect every person on Earth and likely cause the death of a billion or more. The energy represented by such a geological event if far greater than that if a potential asteroid impact and well beyond our ability to control anytime in the near future.

 

The fact is that we will not be able to predict or control all possible threats and the simplest way to deal with such threats is the solution we have always used, diversify. The very act of colonizing space will make it easier to adapt and survive any possible threat. 


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#63
Ru1138

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I take it you have never heard of the three-body problem. http://en.wikipedia....ee-body_problem
In short it states that solving a problem for the motions of just 3 bodies interacting become so complex that predicting there accurately has no practical value. As you add additional bodies to the equation the problem becomes exponentially more complex. Even if we were able to solve the equation for the thousands of bodies that could be influence the events that could lead to an extinction event we would need to know all of the details of each bodies mass and trajectory.


I was going to mention the Three Body Problem, but you say it so much better than I could.


What difference does it make?


#64
Italian Ufo

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I would not enjoy living indoor all the time.



#65
TheAsianGuy_LOL

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I would not enjoy living indoor all the time.

With terraforming or much earlier with lighter space suits, you don't have too.

 

Also, again wish it will happen. I mean, Obyashi announced they are going to build a space elevator by 2050. So I hope optimism can get its way.


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#66
michael92

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The need for multi-planetary life is such BS.

 

We will soon be able to predict any danger from space probably as much as 100 years before, and if we are talking about a nearby huge supernova, being on mars won't save us anyway. Mars is so uninhabitable that it would make a post apocalyptic earth seem like paradise to settle, so the global conflict argument collapses as well.

 

That aside, I am thrilled and excited that we are getting closer to mars. We don't do it because it is necessary, we do it because it is awesome, we do it because we are human beings and it is in our nature to be curious and wanting to conquer the cosmos.

 

I take it you have never heard of the three-body problem. http://en.wikipedia....ee-body_problem

In short it states that solving a problem for the motions of just 3 bodies interacting become so complex that predicting there accurately has no practical value. As you add additional bodies to the equation the problem becomes exponentially more complex. Even if we were able to solve the equation for the thousands of bodies that could be influence the events that could lead to an extinction event we would need to know all of the details of each bodies mass and trajectory. 

 

Then there are the events on Earth that could have significant effect on human survival. Super volcanos may sound like bad sci-fi but they do exist. Even a relatively limited geologic event on this scale would would be negatively affect every person on Earth and likely cause the death of a billion or more. The energy represented by such a geological event if far greater than that if a potential asteroid impact and well beyond our ability to control anytime in the near future.

 

The fact is that we will not be able to predict or control all possible threats and the simplest way to deal with such threats is the solution we have always used, diversify. The very act of colonizing space will make it easier to adapt and survive any possible threat. 

 

 

Our 12,000 year civilization is really a tiny timeframe compared to the events of geologic activity. There have been a lot of minor extinctions in this timeline, but nothing global. We could be almost certain that no such event will happen in the next 10,000 years as in 3.5 billion years of life on earth there have been only 5 major extinctions, and still a lot of species survived.

 

I am not saying multi-planetary life doesn't have immediate advantages, I am only saying that it is not a prerequisite for survival, and I stand on my point. 

 

Mars colonization should be featured as a way to advance us as a species and conquer space, not as a bloated life insurance of our species. The first reason seems way more majestic to me.



#67
doodwtf

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Well, the thing is, if we don't colonize other planets, the mankind will go extinct very soon.


Define "very soon". Could colonies living on mars or luna really sustain themselves if everyone on earth went caput in the "very soon" future? I do think it's important to prioritize current threats to our species survival. Eventually we'll want to get our eggs out of this one basket but if new baskets are dependent at all on the first basket then the exercise is pointless. Imo we need to put more resources into detecting and mitigating imminent threats like astroids first before we put additional resources into moving our eggs out.





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