Lots of mistakes on future time line

[Aaron]

Reading through future time line , I've noticed a lot of errors,
for example incorrectly stating that we last made contact with Pioneer 10 in 2003.
Or the binary star system T pxyidis being 3200 light years away, instead of 15600 light years away approximately.
Andromeda colliding with the milky way etc.

[caltrek]

Reading through future time line , I've noticed a lot of errors,
for example incorrectly stating that we last made contact with Pioneer 10 in 2003.
Or the binary star system T pxyidis being 3200 light years away, instead of 15600 light years away approximately.
Andromeda colliding with the milky way etc.

I will leave it to WJ Fox to determine if your examples need to be acted upon. (As if I had a choice ). I did want to make a point or two, about the general difficulty of producing futuristic predictions. I have been reading a book entitled Encounters with the Future: A Forecast of Life Into the 21st Century. The book was published in 1982. One of the things that strikes me is how many predictions were just wrong or off as to the details. It underlines that predicting the future is a very difficult task. I think I find the book deficient not so much because of the errors it contains, but because of the confidence with which the predictions are for the most part presented.

It is like a conversation I had recently with our handyman. He made a point that the future is impossible to predict and therefore it is not worth arguing about one prediction versus another. I made a counterpoint that one can still make guesses about the future. He simply shrugged that off and reiterated his point.

Predicting the future is a necessary and important part of economics. It guides investment decisions. Profits can be so high because the risks of certain investments are so great. Yet investments are an important part of a growing economy. Even a stagnant versus a severely declining economy requires investment to avoid severe decline and or promote growth. Investment decisions are therefore based on educated guesses.

As for this forum, I think one of the strengths is the recognition that predictions need to be periodically examined and updated as new information and developments occur. A proper enjoyment comes with an understanding that predictions are best guesses and are subject to change and re-evaluation. COVID19 is an example. When I first came across a news article about an outbreak in China, I wondered about whether the Chinese government was over-reacting in its efforts to stop its spread. In short time and as we learned more about the disease and how it is spread, I realized that the seriousness of the problem did justify dramatic containment measures.

This is true with a lot of problems such as global climate change. Decades ago, I was skeptical about whether the problem was as severe as some suggested. Over time, I came to realize that it was a worse problem than I thought. Unfortunately, there are still policy makers who have not acknowledge the obvious and refuse to pursue mitigating policies. That is especially true at the national level here in the United States, which continues to be a major greenhouse gas emitter.

Predicting the future, as wrought as it is with pitfalls and the possibility of error, is important for preparing for that future. Future shock can be especially severe for those who take little effort in this regard.