New predictions for the timeline

[firestar464]

2075- Human meat consumption finally starts to decline

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023 ... k-oecd-fao

[wjfox]

2075- Human meat consumption finally starts to decline

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023 ... k-oecd-fao

That's a great one – thanks.

[wjfox]

2028 – Launch of the NEO Surveyor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEO_Surveyor

[FuturismFan]

Again, I feel like waste heat isn't a problem unless we produce far more waste heat than we do today, and I'd need to see some good reasoning on why it would greatly surpass today's peaks.

https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/vi ... f=3&t=2976

So imagine a world that is, for example, covered in large amounts of computronium and/or other infrastructure needed to sustain a God-like superintelligence, along with billions or maybe even trillions of humans, robots, etc. That's going to generate a stupendous amount of heat. Literally enough to boil the oceans.

Yeah, no. We don't need to cover that much of the earth in computronium to support a God-like super intelligence - seems like we're getting a glimpse of what's needed for that now, and it's far less than that. In a decade or so we'll have AGI probably with not much more waste heat than we're producing now, and humanity is on track to start going towards smaller population size so not trillions (longevity/immortality but stop reduction but if we reach that goal we'll probably start discussing population control when no one dies), and I doubt we'll have that many robots if we're spending more time in virtual realities, mostly just to maintain us.

I agree with you that AGIs won’t require extreme amounts of waste heat. Human brains only use about 12 watts of power. Even comparing DDR4 (1.2 V) to DDR5 (1.1 V), it’s clear that technology is becoming more efficient. You can run an LLM on a home computer.

Population size is projected to eventually decrease as well.

However, if we want Star Trek-style spaceships, which are pretty much the pipe dream of every futurist, waste heat will be a massive problem.

[firestar464]

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-quantum-m ... imics.html

This article may be relevant

[Vakanai]

https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/vi ... f=3&t=2976

So imagine a world that is, for example, covered in large amounts of computronium and/or other infrastructure needed to sustain a God-like superintelligence, along with billions or maybe even trillions of humans, robots, etc. That's going to generate a stupendous amount of heat. Literally enough to boil the oceans.

Yeah, no. We don't need to cover that much of the earth in computronium to support a God-like super intelligence - seems like we're getting a glimpse of what's needed for that now, and it's far less than that. In a decade or so we'll have AGI probably with not much more waste heat than we're producing now, and humanity is on track to start going towards smaller population size so not trillions (longevity/immortality but stop reduction but if we reach that goal we'll probably start discussing population control when no one dies), and I doubt we'll have that many robots if we're spending more time in virtual realities, mostly just to maintain us.

I agree with you that AGIs won’t require extreme amounts of waste heat. Human brains only use about 12 watts of power. Even comparing DDR4 (1.2 V) to DDR5 (1.1 V), it’s clear that technology is becoming more efficient. You can run an LLM on a home computer.

Population size is projected to eventually decrease as well.

However, if we want Star Trek-style spaceships, which are pretty much the pipe dream of every futurist, waste heat will be a massive problem.

Do we want Star Trek style ships though? Sure it's cool in our heads because we love big ships, but it's not the most practical means of colonizing other planets, and even less practical for simple exploration and research frankly. I haven't heard a good argument yet on why we'd need to create that much waste heat other than impractical and overkill ideas like converting everything into computers or building bigger than needed spaceships. We will definitely produce more heat than now, but I don't see a reason why we'd need to produce the amount people are talking about.

As for the ST ships, I imagine by the time we could make ships of that size and scale we'd have already inundated much of our solar system with smaller ships meaning that asteroid/meteor/comet mining would already be under way, we'd have at least small colonies on the moon and other heavenly bodies with less gravity, and space stations orbiting other worlds, meaning most if not all the materials, construction, and general work to create such ships would happen off planet anyway - I'm not going to worry about waste heat in the Kuiper belt or Oort cloud.

Plus those ships are that size because of the crew - humans that are no different at all from us today. That's not a likely picture of the future though, with many being trans or post human. Much of the life systems/support and space needed to comfortably fit hundreds/thousands of modern purely biological humans won't be needed - most won't need life systems, won't need private bedrooms since they won't sleep, many will live in VR or be in an off/hibernation state unless needed until something comes up or the ship reaches their destination, etc. The only reason why we would build ships of that size is either the arrogant need to prove we can, or if that size is needed to house some future technology like warp drives and worm hole generators if such are even possible and require machinery of that size.

[FuturismFan]

Yeah, no. We don't need to cover that much of the earth in computronium to support a God-like super intelligence - seems like we're getting a glimpse of what's needed for that now, and it's far less than that. In a decade or so we'll have AGI probably with not much more waste heat than we're producing now, and humanity is on track to start going towards smaller population size so not trillions (longevity/immortality but stop reduction but if we reach that goal we'll probably start discussing population control when no one dies), and I doubt we'll have that many robots if we're spending more time in virtual realities, mostly just to maintain us.

I agree with you that AGIs won’t require extreme amounts of waste heat. Human brains only use about 12 watts of power. Even comparing DDR4 (1.2 V) to DDR5 (1.1 V), it’s clear that technology is becoming more efficient. You can run an LLM on a home computer.

Population size is projected to eventually decrease as well.

However, if we want Star Trek-style spaceships, which are pretty much the pipe dream of every futurist, waste heat will be a massive problem.

Do we want Star Trek style ships though? Sure it's cool in our heads because we love big ships, but it's not the most practical means of colonizing other planets, and even less practical for simple exploration and research frankly. I haven't heard a good argument yet on why we'd need to create that much waste heat other than impractical and overkill ideas like converting everything into computers or building bigger than needed spaceships. We will definitely produce more heat than now, but I don't see a reason why we'd need to produce the amount people are talking about.

As for the ST ships, I imagine by the time we could make ships of that size and scale we'd have already inundated much of our solar system with smaller ships meaning that asteroid/meteor/comet mining would already be under way, we'd have at least small colonies on the moon and other heavenly bodies with less gravity, and space stations orbiting other worlds, meaning most if not all the materials, construction, and general work to create such ships would happen off planet anyway - I'm not going to worry about waste heat in the Kuiper belt or Oort cloud.

Plus those ships are that size because of the crew - humans that are no different at all from us today. That's not a likely picture of the future though, with many being trans or post human. Much of the life systems/support and space needed to comfortably fit hundreds/thousands of modern purely biological humans won't be needed - most won't need life systems, won't need private bedrooms since they won't sleep, many will live in VR or be in an off/hibernation state unless needed until something comes up or the ship reaches their destination, etc. The only reason why we would build ships of that size is either the arrogant need to prove we can, or if that size is needed to house some future technology like warp drives and worm hole generators if such are even possible and require machinery of that size.

Not so much size - but rather lots of ships that can easily and repeatedly carry enormous amounts of cargo from ground-to-orbit in seconds (ability to achieve escape velocity with lots of cargo) from anywhere on Earth. This would produce a lot of waste heat.

Adding hypotheticals like warp drives and energy shields makes the power requirements even more extreme, but these probably wouldn’t be used in-atmosphere.

Of course, you can say that this will never happen, which is why I said it’s a pipe dream.

I don’t believe that waste heat will boil the oceans. I think that if it becomes a problem, we’ll figure out a solution.

[wjfox]

SSN-AUKUS

The SSN-AUKUS, also known as the SSN-A , is a planned class of nuclear-powered fleet submarine (SSN) intended to enter service with the United Kingdom's Royal Navy in the late 2030s and Royal Australian Navy in the 2040s. The class will replace the UK's Astute class and Australia's Collins class submarines.

[...]

The Royal Australian Navy will acquire eight SSN-AUKUS class boats that will be built at Osborne Naval Shipyard in South Australia.[27][28] The building of the first boat is to begin by the end of the 2030s with the boat delivered in the early 2040s.[27][29] Five boats are expected to be built by 2055 and the three final boats built by 2063 with a boat built every three years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN-AUKUS

[Vakanai]

Not so much size - but rather lots of ships that can easily and repeatedly carry enormous amounts of cargo from ground-to-orbit in seconds (ability to achieve escape velocity with lots of cargo) from anywhere on Earth. This would produce a lot of waste heat.

Adding hypotheticals like warp drives and energy shields makes the power requirements even more extreme, but these probably wouldn’t be used in-atmosphere.

Of course, you can say that this will never happen, which is why I said it’s a pipe dream.

I don’t believe that waste heat will boil the oceans. I think that if it becomes a problem, we’ll figure out a solution.

I don't know if we want/need that either? Never mind the waste heat discussion any more, that seems inefficient for a truly advanced civilization when it comes to exploration. Instead of a lot of cargo, we will probably use asteroid/meteor/comet mining drones to get needed materials and use advanced 3D printers and perhaps even nano-or-pico bots to assemble things out of this material. There of course will need to be cargo, but likely less than we currently imagine.

[wjfox]

Predictions for the next 50 years of astronomy

Published: August 14, 2023

What will astronomy look like in 2073? A panel of astronomers and planetary scientists give their predictions.

https://www.astronomy.com/science/the-n ... astronomy/