New predictions for the timeline

[wjfox]

2050–2070 – The first artificial general intelligence (AGI)

viewtopic.php?p=15256#p15256

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/b ... source=url

[funkervogt]

Given population growth trends and assuming continued cultural conservatism, Africa by 2060 or even 2050 might have more Muslims AND more Christians than any other continent. Will Christianity and Islam become more Afrocentric as a result?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/ ... continent/
https://kk.org/thetechnium/vanishing-mu ... -the-shif/

[Tadasuke]

2050–2070 – The first artificial general intelligence (AGI)

This seems too far. I don't think it will take that long. My cautious prediction is 2040.

[Tadasuke]

After more thinking, it seems to me that AGI might be created as late as 2059.

[wjfox]

2025 – Peak of the current solar cycle

Each cycle is 11 years long.

https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Imag ... ction_NOAA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25

[wjfox]

2027 – The EU ends Russian fossil fuel imports

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/11/ener ... index.html

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insi ... -der-leyen


2035 – Germany's electricity is from 100% renewable sources

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustai ... 022-02-28/

[wjfox]

2035 – China is peaking as a geopolitical and economic power

viewtopic.php?p=16780

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publicati ... rise-china

[Xyls]

Gonna revive this prediction from the old forum, as I think the likelihood of this prediction coming true is becoming extremely high. Please see following resources. The amount of improvements this would do to quality of life, and the amount of strain it would take off the health care system are hard to overstate...

2030 - Stem Cell Therapy to Cure Diabetes

Canadian Progress
https://www.headingto2022.com/

https://www.ualberta.ca/medicine/news/2 ... efore.html

American Progress
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... f825fc3ea4

[wjfox]

2028 – Medical marijuana is legal in the majority of countries

Will be around 2050 for recreational use.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis

[wjfox]

2084 – Transit of Earth from Mars

The last time this occurred was 1984. Humans living on Mars will be able to witness this event on 10th November 2084.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_o ... _from_Mars






46,915 AD – Transit of Uranus from Neptune

This will need a reference – it's just an image from Wikimedia.

Also, a transit may occur before this date. Some discussion here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Tran ... ts_Neptune

[wjfox]

Gonna have to delete the 2025 railgun prediction:

https://www.theregister.com/2021/07/07/ ... _railguns/

[Grace2Paulson]

And this is getting really interesting, it's probably worth going deeper into it.

[wjfox]

A lot of useful trends/predictions here:

https://www.delawarenorth.com/~/media/d ... igital.pdf


Archived version, in case it disappears from the web:

https://web.archive.org/web/20220510165 ... igital.pdf

[wjfox]

2023 – Launch of China's Xuntian space telescope

350 times larger field of view than Hubble.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xuntian

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-claims- ... ld-bigger/

[wjfox]

2030 – 1 TW of solar capacity is deployed annually

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/ ... y-by-2030/

[wjfox]

12,000 – 13,000 AD – The next Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maximum

The "Green Sahara" is expected to reappear during this time (depending on if/when climate change is fixed)

https://www.livescience.com/will-sahara ... green.html

[wjfox]

Hinkley delayed yet again!

From 2026 to 2027.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-61519609

And yet more billions over budget.

[wjfox]

Some very useful data here, which could be extrapolated over the next 200-300 years:

viewtopic.php?p=20701#p20701

https://ourworldindata.org/peak-agriculture-land

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/glob ... =~OWID_WRL


Edit: Related to the above –

[wjfox]

Some of these are on our timeline already, but there's a couple more which could be added:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61511546

[wjfox]

2029 – Romania joins the eurozone

This follows Croatia (2023) and Bulgaria (2024).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargeme ... largements