Hi all
A year or so ago I read some entries on Nanotechnology and their use in full-immersion VR and business / education settings - I used the entry as a basis for a story I am writing - and now I have returned to the timeline the entry appears to have been removed completely. I believe the entries I read were around the 2039 mark on the timeline. There were also entries regarding swarm-tech reaching the nano-tech scale around 2035 - but these have also now been removed.
If the entries are still on the timeline, could somebody please point me towards where they have moved to - and if they were removed, could I please know why?
Many thanks all! Love the site!
Chris
Nanotechnology & VR - entries removed?
Re: Nanotechnology & VR - entries removed?
Hi Chris.
Full-immersion VR was among the earliest predictions I wrote on the site. You're correct, it was listed at 2039. It's still available on Wayback Machine.
It was partly based on speculation by Ray Kurzweil, who explored the topic in The Singularity is Near. However, that book was written back in 2005 – and since then, having improved my knowledge as a futurist, it's become apparent to me that FIVR is more of a distant prospect. While many technological trends are indeed exponential, there's something about the brain that makes it more of a sensitive, complex topic. Few people would be willing to have billions of implants controlling their neurons in such a way, and regulatory approvals may be difficult, at least for a long time, until the technology is mature and proven to be safe.
I'm sure FIVR will happen eventually ("any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" to quote Arthur C Clarke), but it seems like more of a distant possibility than a mere 17 years away. Small-scale lab experiments might be performed on animal models by 2039, perhaps using a few thousand or million devices in certain brain regions, but a fully realised and commercialised version for humans with 100 billion+ implants is surely much further out. Likely 2075-2100 or even later. Also, it's much more likely that nanobots, or whatever the machines are going to be called, will be used for medical treatments than as entertainment options. I'm thinking brain cancer, stroke recovery, etc. Overcoming the blood-brain barrier and the body's immune defences will be a significant challenge, never mind altering the electrical states of neurons and forming coherent visual/audio/sensory patterns that are indistinguishable from real life.
In any case, we'll be able to achieve similar, highly immersive experiences in the next couple of decades, without resorting to such invasive procedures. For this reason, I deleted the FIVR entry and instead looked at the current trends in VR, then extrapolated the screen sizes, resolutions, fields of view, etc. I found that 8K VR is likely going mainstream by 2030 and 16K by 2042.
I remember the swarm tech you mentioned too. That was deleted for similar reasons, although it may be reinstated at some point if/when I can find better references and more credible trends/data.
Full-immersion VR was among the earliest predictions I wrote on the site. You're correct, it was listed at 2039. It's still available on Wayback Machine.
It was partly based on speculation by Ray Kurzweil, who explored the topic in The Singularity is Near. However, that book was written back in 2005 – and since then, having improved my knowledge as a futurist, it's become apparent to me that FIVR is more of a distant prospect. While many technological trends are indeed exponential, there's something about the brain that makes it more of a sensitive, complex topic. Few people would be willing to have billions of implants controlling their neurons in such a way, and regulatory approvals may be difficult, at least for a long time, until the technology is mature and proven to be safe.
I'm sure FIVR will happen eventually ("any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" to quote Arthur C Clarke), but it seems like more of a distant possibility than a mere 17 years away. Small-scale lab experiments might be performed on animal models by 2039, perhaps using a few thousand or million devices in certain brain regions, but a fully realised and commercialised version for humans with 100 billion+ implants is surely much further out. Likely 2075-2100 or even later. Also, it's much more likely that nanobots, or whatever the machines are going to be called, will be used for medical treatments than as entertainment options. I'm thinking brain cancer, stroke recovery, etc. Overcoming the blood-brain barrier and the body's immune defences will be a significant challenge, never mind altering the electrical states of neurons and forming coherent visual/audio/sensory patterns that are indistinguishable from real life.
In any case, we'll be able to achieve similar, highly immersive experiences in the next couple of decades, without resorting to such invasive procedures. For this reason, I deleted the FIVR entry and instead looked at the current trends in VR, then extrapolated the screen sizes, resolutions, fields of view, etc. I found that 8K VR is likely going mainstream by 2030 and 16K by 2042.
I remember the swarm tech you mentioned too. That was deleted for similar reasons, although it may be reinstated at some point if/when I can find better references and more credible trends/data.
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TremorChris
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:53 am
Re: Nanotechnology & VR - entries removed?
Thank you Wjfox for your response. I do agree that 17 years seems unrealistic for such a tricky technological development. We still only know the basics of how the human mind works.
If I may, could I message you in the future with some queries on this or related topics? I promise not to spam you.
Thanks again,
Chris
PS apologies for the delay in my response - I forgot to mark "inform me of responses"
If I may, could I message you in the future with some queries on this or related topics? I promise not to spam you.
Thanks again,
Chris
PS apologies for the delay in my response - I forgot to mark "inform me of responses"
Re: Nanotechnology & VR - entries removed?
No worries, feel free to message me here, or by email.TremorChris wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:07 pm Thank you Wjfox for your response. I do agree that 17 years seems unrealistic for such a tricky technological development. We still only know the basics of how the human mind works.
If I may, could I message you in the future with some queries on this or related topics? I promise not to spam you.
Thanks again,
Chris
PS apologies for the delay in my response - I forgot to mark "inform me of responses"
Re: Nanotechnology & VR - entries removed?
If you look at trends, PS5 has 1000x more processing speed than PS2, but it uses 5x more energy (200 vs 40 watts), that divides to 200x energy efficiency improvement over 20 years (both CPU and GPU). In 2025 we can expect 40 watts laptops with PS5 performance, meaning 1000x improvement in 25 years. This is the real rate of change, not a Kurzweilian one, which is wrong. We wouldn't even have the necessary processing capabilities in 2039 for true FIVR. 2041 mid-range GPU might be 1000x faster than mid-range 2021 GPU like the RX 6700 XT, which is about 14 teraflops after overclock and is 1000x faster than 2001 GPUs. The truth is that processing speed doubles every 2 years and that is with increased energy consumption, it doubles every 2.5 years at the same power consumption. This completely changes the calculation, if you assumed it doubles every 12 months. And of course, we won't have legalized working nanobots by 2039. Miniaturization is not that fast. But keep assured that VR in 2039 will be far better than VR in 2022.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
