New predictions for the timeline

Think the timeline needs editing, or have suggestions about the forum? Let us know!
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

I'm gonna email the folks behind this study on limb regeneration and get their opinions on when a human treatment might be possible:

https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... bility.htm
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2065 – Volumetric 4K telecommunication devices 8-)

https://phys.org/news/2021-12-future-3d ... ision.html


Image
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2031 – The International Space Station is retired

NASA plans to crash the ISS into the Pacific Ocean:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/02/worl ... index.html
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by funkervogt »

wjfox wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:51 pm 2065 – Volumetric 4K telecommunication devices 8-)

https://phys.org/news/2021-12-future-3d ... ision.html


Image
"Multiview HPO" = multiview horizontal parallax only

The term means:
1) Several people watching the same TV set from different angles (e.g. - watching from the left, watching straight-on from the center, watching from the right) will perceive its footage as being 3D, and
2) The picture will only look 3D if the viewers' heads are level. If one of them tilted his head 90 degrees, so his ear was flat against his shoulder, the footage would look 2D instead of 3D.

Another important limitation of multiview HPO TVs is that they can't display 3D images to viewers at every possible angle. The multiview HPO TVs that exist today (in tech research labs) can only display it to a maximum of 9 - 16 people sitting in a semicircle in front of it.

https://vcg.seas.harvard.edu/publicatio ... lays/paper

That paper you cited predicts that the TVs will be commercially available around 2040. Looks like he predicts "volumetric 4K" TVs, which will be improved versions of the multiview HPOs, will be available by about 2060.

"Light field (full parallax)" will arrive in the 2080s. "Full parallax" probably means that, unlike the multiview HPO TVs, there will be no limit on how many viewers could watch one display and see 3D footage. You could have a semicircle of 360 viewers in front of one, each seeing a tiny, half-degree wide wedge of the TV, and all would see 3D objects.

I imagine "Holography," which will arrive around 2120, will be a 3D TV that has all the kinks worked out. As in, the tech couldn't get better than that.
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

funkervogt wrote: Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:37 pm
"Multiview HPO" = multiview horizontal parallax only

The term means:
1) Several people watching the same TV set from different angles (e.g. - watching from the left, watching straight-on from the center, watching from the right) will perceive its footage as being 3D, and
2) The picture will only look 3D if the viewers' heads are level. If one of them tilted his head 90 degrees, so his ear was flat against his shoulder, the footage would look 2D instead of 3D.

Another important limitation of multiview HPO TVs is that they can't display 3D images to viewers at every possible angle. The multiview HPO TVs that exist today (in tech research labs) can only display it to a maximum of 9 - 16 people sitting in a semicircle in front of it.

https://vcg.seas.harvard.edu/publicatio ... lays/paper

That paper you cited predicts that the TVs will be commercially available around 2040. Looks like he predicts "volumetric 4K" TVs, which will be improved versions of the multiview HPOs, will be available by about 2060.

"Light field (full parallax)" will arrive in the 2080s. "Full parallax" probably means that, unlike the multiview HPO TVs, there will be no limit on how many viewers could watch one display and see 3D footage. You could have a semicircle of 360 viewers in front of one, each seeing a tiny, half-degree wide wedge of the TV, and all would see 3D objects.

I imagine "Holography," which will arrive around 2120, will be a 3D TV that has all the kinks worked out. As in, the tech couldn't get better than that.
Very helpful – thanks. :)

Using Adobe Illustrator, I've recreated the graph by Pierre-Alexandre Blanche. By zooming right into the grid, I can see the exact dates are as follows:

Multiview (HPO) = 2045
Volumetric 4K = 2065
Light field (full parallax) = 2085
Holography = 2115

Blanche's paper includes a few other details that I'll try to incorporate in each prediction.
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by funkervogt »

Using Adobe Illustrator, I've recreated the graph by Pierre-Alexandre Blanche. By zooming right into the grid, I can see the exact dates are as follows:

Multiview (HPO) = 2045
Volumetric 4K = 2065
Light field (full parallax) = 2085
Holography = 2115

Blanche's paper includes a few other details that I'll try to incorporate in each prediction.
His paper also says that he strongly believes we'll find ways to accelerate the development of those technologies.
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8730
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2041 – Completion of Sound Transit 3

[Ref 1]

[Ref 2]
User avatar
funkervogt
Posts: 1171
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by funkervogt »

I suggest you add new predictions about improved early detection of natural disasters. Once we understand how animals can sense them ahead of time, we could build machines that copied their methods. It's possible we could reliably detect earthquakes hours in advance, and notify everyone in the target area.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2022 ... -disasters
User avatar
raklian
Posts: 1747
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:46 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by raklian »

funkervogt wrote: Tue Feb 15, 2022 7:10 pm I suggest you add new predictions about improved early detection of natural disasters. Once we understand how animals can sense them ahead of time, we could build machines that copied their methods. It's possible we could reliably detect earthquakes hours in advance, and notify everyone in the target area.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2022 ... -disasters
But for that to happen, we need to learn how to communicate with animals intelligently. After all, we need to ask them how they know. :lol:
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
Post Reply