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New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sun May 16, 2021 10:10 pm
by wjfox
Here you can suggest ideas for new entries on our
timeline, or changes to existing entries.
Any references or data/trends would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks!
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:53 am
by Ozzie guy
2024 Proto AGI is created.
Yuli Ban confidently predicts proto AGI before the end of 2024, starspawn0 thinks this prediction is reasonable and it seems like much of the subreddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/thisisthewayitwillbe/ also believes in the prediction.
Yuli's most recent definition of proto AGI on this forum is the following "A proto-AGI or a Zombie AGI is really an advanced conversation model that can convince people it's intelligent, with some skills in generating images and audio to boot. Imagine LaMDA fused with DALL-E and Jukebox. It's hard to say if it's a language model, an image generation model, or an audio synthesis model because it does all three and more. Heck, you could use it for arithmetic like a natural language calculator.
However, it's not quite generally capable in all fields— I wouldn't trust it with driving a car."
Having an actually existing AGI as a starting point to grow from is an absolutely insanely large development for humanity and especially for users on this forum.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:55 am
by TrueAnimationFan
What about New Horizons entering the Oort cloud by 2590?
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:06 am
by wjfox
Set and Meet Goals wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:53 am
2024 Proto AGI is created.
Yuli Ban confidently predicts proto AGI before the end of 2024, starspawn0 thinks this prediction is reasonable and it seems like much of the subreddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/thisisthewayitwillbe/ also believes in the prediction.
Yuli's most recent definition of proto AGI on this forum is the following "A proto-AGI or a Zombie AGI is really an advanced conversation model that can convince people it's intelligent, with some skills in generating images and audio to boot. Imagine LaMDA fused with DALL-E and Jukebox. It's hard to say if it's a language model, an image generation model, or an audio synthesis model because it does all three and more. Heck, you could use it for arithmetic like a natural language calculator.
However, it's not quite generally capable in all fields— I wouldn't trust it with driving a car."
Having an actually existing AGI as a starting point to grow from is an absolutely insanely large development for humanity and especially for users on this forum.
Depends how you define AGI, but I'm not convinced it will arrive that soon, despite the recent progress with GPT, etc. There's a big difference between natural language processing and a fully-fledged AGI that can navigate 3D environments, recognise and manipulate objects, etc.
TrueAnimationFan wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:55 am
What about New Horizons entering the Oort cloud by 2590?
Yep, that's on my "To Do" list.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:02 am
by wjfox
Couple more ideas:
Early 2040s - Intercontinental passenger spaceships linking major cities in two hours
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=471
2070 – Completion of Denmark's Lynetteholm artificial island project
viewtopic.php?f=27&t=473
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:32 am
by wjfox
Having updated the VR prediction for 2039 (now 2042), the next major entry I want to rewrite is 2045. Any ideas welcome.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:48 am
by Time_Traveller
wjfox wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:32 am
Having updated the VR prediction for 2039 (now 2042), the next major entry I want to rewrite is 2045. Any ideas welcome.
Don't forget to add China's plan to achieve one-hour global arrival and flight-based ground-to-orbit and orbit-to-orbit space transportation by 2045. Originally revealed in a speech in 2020.
https://cntechpost.com/2020/09/18/china ... the-globe/
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:40 pm
by wjfox
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:30 am
by wjfox
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:26 pm
by wjfox
2057 – Smart clothing is a trillion dollar industry
^ Current prediction I'm working on.
It'll only account for about 15% of total worldwide clothing revenue, however, based on my extrapolations. So I think we'll have to wait many more decades before all clothing has embedded sensors/electronics. Even then, I think some people might choose to wear traditional clothing for personal, cultural or religious reasons, so perhaps we'll never actually reach 100%.
