New predictions for the timeline

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wjfox
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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joe00uk wrote: Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:02 pm Ice core studies have revealed that about 8,000 years ago, during the last post-glacial climatic optimum, there was a period of about a decade when temperatures rose by 7-8 degrees C.
I don't think that's true. At least, not globally.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2033 – Return of Mars samples to Earth

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa ... th-in-2033


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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2035 – World GDP exceeds $200 trillion

https://fortune.com/longform/global-gdp ... nomy-2030/


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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Interesting study on battery-powered container shipping.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/08/22/ ... the-water/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01065-y

It suggests that 40% of container vessels worldwide could be electrified “cost-effectively and with current technology,” by the end of this decade.

I could possibly extrapolate this to >50% (i.e. the majority), which I guess would occur by 2031-32.


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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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In this scenario, the battery volume is less than that of the existing ICE mechanical space at voyage lengths less than 1,300–2,000 km. The impacts of the battery system volume on TEU forfeiture decreases as ship capacity increases, reflecting innovations in ultra-large containership design that optimize carrying capacity and energy consumption better than feeder ships. b, The results with a battery energy density of 1,200 Wh l−1. In this near-future scenario, the net change in carrying capacity is positive for voyages of up to 2,000–5,000 km, depending on ship type.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Proposed prediction for the 2070s: The first healthy baby conceived synthetic human embryo (or "embryoid") is born. The event is as significant as the birth of the first "Test Tube Baby" 100 years earlier, as it allows single people to conceive children regardless of their own natural fertility status, and without need of a partner's DNA. It also inaugurates an era of unauthorized human cloning, where DNA samples of unwitting third parties are collected and then traded on black markets.

https://apnews.com/article/synthetic-mo ... 8a847d75bf
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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funkervogt wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 5:37 pm Proposed prediction for the 2070s: The first healthy baby conceived synthetic human embryo (or "embryoid") is born. The event is as significant as the birth of the first "Test Tube Baby" 100 years earlier, as it allows single people to conceive children regardless of their own natural fertility status, and without need of a partner's DNA. It also inaugurates an era of unauthorized human cloning, where DNA samples of unwitting third parties are collected and then traded on black markets.

https://apnews.com/article/synthetic-mo ... 8a847d75bf

Cool breakthrough, but how did you decide on 2070?

The reference just says "In the future, similar experiments will be done with human cells and that, at some point, will yield similar results."

I need a quote that's a little more specific, or at least provides some hint, e.g. "50 years from now", or "several decades from now", or "towards the end of this century."
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2039 - The Large Ultraviolet Optical Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) is launched

Two earlier predictions on the timeline, the ATLAST and HDST projects, will need deleting and merging into this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Ult ... d_Surveyor


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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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I'm currently working on a prediction for the Hoover Dam, which is expected to become inoperable by ~2033 due to Lake Mead's rapid decline.

Las Vegas will be spared from the water shortages that were predicted before, due to a new intake pump at a lower depth, but this won't be a solution in the longer term.

Another water source to the north-east – Lake Powell – is facing even greater decline. I may include a mention of this in the prediction.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Some very useful trends/data on renewables here:

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S25 ... 22)00410-X
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