New predictions for the timeline

Think the timeline needs editing, or have suggestions about the forum? Let us know!
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

A reader sent me this –

Hey Will, I recently learned about Flood basalt formations occurring from massive volcanic eruptions and I think the next one should be included in the future timeline. I know you have included the next supervolcanic eruption at 900,000 AD and mentioned "potential future technologies developed by humanity (or its descendants) by then, such as the ability to control tectonic plates and the underlying mantle." so I think would make sense to include that in the next 10-50 million years we could see a case of the kind of eruption which has been linked to prior mass extinctions. I think it would make sense for this to be included in the future timeline with a range the same way you have mentioned that for 30 to 40 million years in the future at some point during this period, an asteroid 10-20 km in size comes on a direct collision course with Earth. The median interval calculated for the flood basalt eruptions is 23 million years apart (11 eruptions in the past 250 million years). The Earth could even experience two of this type of eruption during this time frame. To put this in perspective: a Flood basalt eruption caused the End-Permian Extinction which is the Earth's most severe known extinction event. Thanks.
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

Maybe worth updating our Christianity predictions for the U.S.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/christiani ... -research/
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

Late 2030s/early 2040s - NASA's current timeline for crewed missions to Mars:

User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2024 - Recreational cannabis is legalised in Germany

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63404181
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2,000,000 AD – Earth is in danger of cometary impacts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholz%27s_Star


User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

This article has a long-term projection of global GDP growth, suggesting a slowdown later this century.

A bit dated (Jan 2015), but some interesting stuff nevertheless. I'll try to find better/more recent references alongside this.

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... h-be-saved


Image
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

At some point, I'd like to do a long-term forecast on the automation of construction. Maybe something in our Data & Trends section first, then a prediction or two on the timeline.

Couple of references I could use and extrapolate from:

Size of the global construction market in 2021, with forecasts from 2021 to 2030
https://www.statista.com/statistics/129 ... forecasts/

3D Printing Construction Market Size, 2022-2030
https://www.researchandmarkets.com/repo ... =chdo54prd
Jakob
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:12 pm

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by Jakob »

wjfox wrote: Sun Nov 06, 2022 12:22 pm 2,000,000 AD – Earth is in danger of cometary impacts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholz%27s_Star


In 2 million years there either won't be humans, or humans will be advanced enough to shrug off anything short of a big-G God deciding to end reality. So nothing to worry about.
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2023 - The Aurora supercomputer is deployed

Will be 2 exaFLOPS, nearly twice the speed of Frontier, and the second exascale machine in the U.S.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_(supercomputer)
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8663
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

The driverless hover-taxis in Dubai prediction will need moving to 2026:

https://www.timeoutabudhabi.com/news/du ... oming-soon

Edit: In fact it's unclear if these will be autonomous.
Post Reply