2050–2070 – The first artificial general intelligence (AGI)
viewtopic.php?p=15256#p15256
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/b ... source=url
New predictions for the timeline
- funkervogt
- Posts: 1178
- Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:03 pm
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Given population growth trends and assuming continued cultural conservatism, Africa by 2060 or even 2050 might have more Muslims AND more Christians than any other continent. Will Christianity and Islam become more Afrocentric as a result?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/ ... continent/
https://kk.org/thetechnium/vanishing-mu ... -the-shif/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/ ... continent/
https://kk.org/thetechnium/vanishing-mu ... -the-shif/
Re: New predictions for the timeline
This seems too far. I don't think it will take that long. My cautious prediction is 2040.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
After more thinking, it seems to me that AGI might be created as late as 2059.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Re: New predictions for the timeline
2025 – Peak of the current solar cycle
Each cycle is 11 years long.
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Imag ... ction_NOAA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25
Each cycle is 11 years long.
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Imag ... ction_NOAA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25
Re: New predictions for the timeline
2027 – The EU ends Russian fossil fuel imports
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/11/ener ... index.html
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insi ... -der-leyen
2035 – Germany's electricity is from 100% renewable sources
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustai ... 022-02-28/
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/11/ener ... index.html
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insi ... -der-leyen
2035 – Germany's electricity is from 100% renewable sources
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustai ... 022-02-28/
Re: New predictions for the timeline
2035 – China is peaking as a geopolitical and economic power
viewtopic.php?p=16780
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publicati ... rise-china
viewtopic.php?p=16780
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publicati ... rise-china
Re: New predictions for the timeline
Gonna revive this prediction from the old forum, as I think the likelihood of this prediction coming true is becoming extremely high. Please see following resources. The amount of improvements this would do to quality of life, and the amount of strain it would take off the health care system are hard to overstate...
2030 - Stem Cell Therapy to Cure Diabetes
Canadian Progress
https://www.headingto2022.com/
https://www.ualberta.ca/medicine/news/2 ... efore.html
American Progress
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... f825fc3ea4
2030 - Stem Cell Therapy to Cure Diabetes
Canadian Progress
https://www.headingto2022.com/
https://www.ualberta.ca/medicine/news/2 ... efore.html
American Progress
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... f825fc3ea4
Re: New predictions for the timeline
2028 – Medical marijuana is legal in the majority of countries
Will be around 2050 for recreational use.
Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis
Will be around 2050 for recreational use.
Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis
Re: New predictions for the timeline
2084 – Transit of Earth from Mars
The last time this occurred was 1984. Humans living on Mars will be able to witness this event on 10th November 2084.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_o ... _from_Mars
46,915 AD – Transit of Uranus from Neptune
This will need a reference – it's just an image from Wikimedia.
Also, a transit may occur before this date. Some discussion here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Tran ... ts_Neptune
The last time this occurred was 1984. Humans living on Mars will be able to witness this event on 10th November 2084.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_o ... _from_Mars
46,915 AD – Transit of Uranus from Neptune
This will need a reference – it's just an image from Wikimedia.
Also, a transit may occur before this date. Some discussion here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Tran ... ts_Neptune