"Godfather of A.I." says AGI will be invented within 20 years

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funkervogt
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"Godfather of A.I." says AGI will be invented within 20 years

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Geoffrey Hinton, a computer scientist who has been called "the godfather of artificial intelligence", says it is "not inconceivable" that AI may develop to the point where it poses a threat to humanity.

The computer scientist sat down with CBS News this week about his predictions for the advancement of AI. He compared the invention of AI to electricity or the wheel.

Hinton, who works at Google and the University of Toronto, said that the development of general purpose AI is progressing sooner than people may imagine. General purpose AI is artificial intelligence with several intended and unintended purposes, including speech recognition, answering questions and translation.

"Until quite recently, I thought it was going to be like 20 to 50 years before we have general purpose AI. And now I think it may be 20 years or less," Hinton predicted. Asked specifically the chances of AI "wiping out humanity," Hinton said, "I think it's not inconceivable. That's all I'll say."
https://www.foxnews.com/tech/artificial ... onceivable
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funkervogt
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Re: "Godfather of A.I." says AGI will be invented within 20 years

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Here's something else Geoffrey Hinton said in 2016, right after the first machine defeated the human Go champion:
Q: Beyond games, then—what might come next for AI?
A: It depends who you talk to. My belief is that we’re not going to get human-level abilities until we have systems that have the same number of parameters in them as the brain. So in the brain, you have connections between the neurons called synapses, and they can change. All your knowledge is stored in those synapses. You have about 1,000-trillion synapses—10 to the 15, it’s a very big number. So that’s quite unlike the neural networks we have right now. They’re far, far smaller, the biggest ones we have right now have about a billion synapses. That’s about a million times smaller than the brain.

Q: Do you dare predict a timeline for that?
A: More than five years. I refuse to say anything beyond five years because I don’t think we can see much beyond five years. And you look at these past predictions like there’s only a market in the world for five computers [as allegedly said by IBM founder Thomas Watson] and you realize it’s not a good idea to predict too far into the future.
https://macleans.ca/society/science/the ... -go-champ/

According to this estimate, GPT-3 runs at 10^15 FLOPS. While some commenters make well-informed critiques of the methodology, they also conclude that GPT-3 is in or just under the human brain's range of computation.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TAbQHFw ... y-the-same

In spite of our lack of a general learning algorithm, or of a set of relatively simple algorithms that can make an AGI, general intelligence seems to be an emergent property of neutral networks once they reach human brain-levels of complexity.
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Re: "Godfather of A.I." says AGI will be invented within 20 years

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The first thing that godfather word made me want to do was roll my eyes. That is how cheesy it has been overused and from a right wing source too lol. Even 20 years is nothing man... ergh that is rough!
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funkervogt
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Re: "Godfather of A.I." says AGI will be invented within 20 years

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Nanotechandmorefuture wrote: Sun Apr 02, 2023 8:29 am The first thing that godfather word made me want to do was roll my eyes. That is how cheesy it has been overused and from a right wing source too lol.
Hinton's comments were actually made during an interview with CBS News, which is a left-wing source. That fact was even in the text I quoted:
The computer scientist sat down with CBS News this week about his predictions for the advancement of AI.
Fox News merely reported on something CBS News put out, so you're wrong to attribute it to the former.
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Re: "Godfather of A.I." says AGI will be invented within 20 years

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Geoffrey Hinton on the possibility of current day A.I. having subjective experiences.

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