Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) News and Discussions

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Yuli Ban
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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starspawn0
There are several steps separating this from what you might call "AGI" -- e.g. long-term memory (not just x number of tokens, where x is small); a sense of time (instead of just a sequence of tokens where each could be separated by an indefinite duration; this could be solved by training on voice and/or video, both of which contain a sense of time); and need for multi-modal, which might help make it learn representations quicker than just using text.

One capability that would be interesting to see in these models is self-awareness. They may already have some degree of it. What would that look like? If you ask it to answer a question, and then ask it to explain what its weakness was in doing so, and it comes back with, "I wasn't very confident with that answer. I guessed correctly." -- and then you check the neural net's internal dynamics, and find that, indeed, the probability distribution for answers was spread out in such a way as to suggest "uncertainty". If all that happens, then it would suggest that the model has some degree of self-awareness (and you'd want to check lots more examples of how its self-analyses compare with its own internal dynamics).

If models attain some level of self-awareness, then they would know what they are weak at, and suggest how to improve. They could tell you what you should be doing to make them smarter.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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What does he know that we don't....?
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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Starspawn0

Incidentally, for those who don't know, Szegedy comes from a very distinguished mathematical family, and he happens to also be a math ph.d. with significant theoretical accomplishments -- though, most people in the machine learning world know him from his other work, for example on batch-normalization and also adversarial examples. His mathematical intuition is probably deeper than most of the other people at Google (certainly including Chollet, but also Hinton, Hassabis, Jeff Dean, and others...).
Addendum: Boaz Barak (theoretical CS guy at Harvard of considerable acclaim) weighs in:
https://mobile.twitter.com/boazbaraktcs/status/1512488217177575430
I would actually be surprised if it takes 500bn parameters. I would guess that:
(1) A moderate size neural net could easily learn to distinguish between the "left" distribution (identical shapes) and "right" distribution (different shapes) and also generate new examples.
Szegedy and Barak are in a whole other league from most of the people responding in that thread (far beyond poor Melanie Mitchell).
Addendum 2: Michael Nielsen also weighed-in:
https://mobile.twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1513283862905835521
My guess is that there will be a system - indeed, very possibly one based on zero-shot learning - much better than humans at solving Bongard problems sometime very soon, if people prioritize it.
....
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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My prediction is that by 2025, we'll see personal assistants similar to Samantha from Her. And if the API is publicly available, anyone could talk to such assistants even on their phones.

Turing Test? Probably will be passed either this year or next. 2024 at the latest.
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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The results of our poll (199 votes).

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andmar74
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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My prediction is that by 2025, we'll see personal assistants similar to Samantha from Her. And if the API is publicly available, anyone could talk to such assistants even on their phones.

Turing Test? Probably will be passed either this year or next. 2024 at the latest.
Isn't Samantha AGI or very close? It's been a long time since I saw the movie, I will see it again if I can find it.

I think that's too early for the Turing test. The AI can't fool me yet. I would just ask it some tricky science questions and the answers will be gibberish or half-gibberish.
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

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6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction -- cross-post from /r/slatestarcodex.
All-DayErrDay
It's now 9 years earlier. I would say if more big (or at least big feeling) things come out in a year that it will regress to 2029 - 2031. If things stay on track it isn't a bad guess for Weak AGI. Weak AGI in my opinion is not AGI but instead superhuman/on par at enough tasks to increase human productivity significantly, still lackluster enough to not be able to fill quite a few important human roles and is on the cusp of being an AGI (with maybe 5 - 10 more years if sufficiently difficult to truly puff out any of the harder weaknesses).

But I guess what I just said doesn't actually coincide with my personal distributional timeline. Somehow for me, 10 years simultaneously feels like a good estimate for when 'Weak' AGI will be available but that true AGI won't probably be here until roughly 20 years from now. However, that doesn't actually make sense in many ways. How could you get to a weak AGI without getting to a true AGI within 3-5 years of that?

I haven't really worked it out in my mind yet. I guess it feels like AGI is just too hard to attain in 10-15 years. Yet, 20 years feels good, but I also think weak AGI in 10 years. I don't know...

After thinking, my overall bet is weak AGI by 2032, then AGI by 2039-47, and then ASI within 1 month - 3 years of AGI. My probabilities are .8, .8 and .9. So by my current estimates I think there is an 80% chance of weak AGI by 2032, 64% chance of AGI by 2047 and a 58% chance of ASI by 2050 (some biases honestly push the odds a bit lower in my mind, like instead a .60, .60, .90 distribution, and another optimistic side that says .85, .90, .95, but I'll stick to my first estimate for the time being as slightly optimistic priors).
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Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by raklian »

andmar74 wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:41 am
I think that's too early for the Turing test. The AI can't fool me yet. I would just ask it some tricky science questions and the answers will be gibberish or half-gibberish.
But wouldn't you get the same result if you ask a layperson the same questions? :D
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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