Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) News and Discussions

Post Reply
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Yuli Ban »

andmar74 wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:41 am I think that's too early for the Turing test. The AI can't fool me yet. I would just ask it some tricky science questions and the answers will be gibberish or half-gibberish.
A few thoughts on this:

First of all, that's part of a somewhat unfortunate fact: whatever AI you've used is almost certainly NOT the state of the art. Even GPT-3 is no longer leader of the pack in any regard except visibility— it had been surpassed last year and especially moreso this year.
https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard
Something like PaLM or Chinchilla would be a more effective gauge of where AI stands

Of course, second of all, the Turing Test is likely already passable. This because it's already been passed multiple times by earlier chatbots
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Goostman#Reaction
This because it only needs to convince 30% of judges that it's human.

If simple scripts, Markov Chains, and LSTM networks of the 2000s and early 2010s could do it, there's no reason why a modern transformer fine-tuned on dialogue couldn't crush the Turing Test as we speak. For whatever reason, it seems no one's tried.

Of course, there are some edits done to the Turing Test to make it more meaningful. For example, upping the score it needs to pass from 30% to 90% would go a long way. Also helping would be extending the amount of time the test is held, from a few minutes to half an hour or an hour or longer.



Personally, I look upon things like Eugene Goostman passing the Turing Test much the same way I look at that AI that beat a human at Go back in 2008.

Where it only won against a low-level champion, on a small 9x9 board. Goostman was given handicaps, such as being an ESL Ukrainian 14-year-old to "excuse" grammatical errors and non-sequiturs.
In comparison, AlphaGo won with no handicaps, fair and square. A modern transformer-powered dialogue agent should also be able to win fair and square, without need for any excuses.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
User avatar
Ozzie guy
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Ozzie guy »

Kurzweil has a much stricter version of the Turing test I suppose you could call it the Kurzweil test. https://longbets.org/1/

This could not be passed now and seems a better measure of us being close to AGI although I don't think anyone will care about his version unless he lives old enough to make good on his Turing test bet.


As a personal note I think I am going to read into the Metaculus AGI predictions and change my AI predictions to just following what they say.

I get the impression that the average view of those scientists will be the most realistic view possible (and it is also flexible to change over time) and I need to stray away from optimism in favor of realism to not let my self down.
Tadasuke
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Tadasuke »

Proto-AGI may be a few years away, but I'm not seeing any substantial improvements to our daily lives thanks to AI.

Some examples from my life: Google search doesn't work better today than in 2016 (sometimes works worse), search functionality in Skyscrapercity doesn't work better than in 2002 (really), DeviantArt doesn't adapt to your preferences at all (your history, works, favourites, comments or things clicked as "see less like that in the future"), voice assistant function on smartwatches doesn't work better than a few years ago (still works terribly and is useless). I just don't see, hear or feel any exponential improvement in AI in my daily life at all, with the exception of language translators (which still can't translate from camera or photos) and YouTube recommendations.

I was so f***ing excited about AI when the 2010s were starting and here we are 12 years later and there has not been much of a difference. I'm typing this on a keyboard instead of dictating to a virtual assistant like Winston Churchill to his human assistant. IBM Watson won Jeopardy in February 2011. So little has changed since then in practically and widely used AI. I'm observing it, following it, but I can't feel the supposed big difference that exponential AI makes. All the stuff 'Two Minute Papers' shows, doesn't influence me a bit (for now). And I can't even run the advertised AI software, because I use Radeon cards, not GeForce RTX or Volta V100. And no, I'm not going to buy Nvidia, because they don't open-source and they started GPU price inflation in 2012-2013.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
User avatar
peekpok
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:51 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by peekpok »

AI in its current form isn't particularly well suited to consumer products in my opinion, although there are examples here and there of it slowly creeping into daily life. Being able to image search through your own google photos is pretty neat. I do feel that Google has gotten a bit better at question answering especially when it comes to basic questions, and voice recognition has seemed to get better as well.

But where AI is really going to be useful in the next 5-10 years is industry mostly. Things like weather prediction, agriculture, drug discovery, chip design and other stuff like that. In some cases AI can also help manage large industrial systems such as when Google used Deepmind's AI to control the cooling system for one of its data centers and reduced the energy bill by 40%. AI is going to quietly work behind the scenes making many businesses more efficient. It's hard to imagine it now, especially with the current bout of inflation that the world is suffering through, but probably over the next 10 years a variety of products and services will become inexplicably cheaper.

I briefly mentioned it before but it's worth repeating that AI is being used in computer chip design now, which means we're already starting down that path of "recursive self improvement" even if its not 100% automated. I suspect that AI will take a larger and larger role in the design and operation of new computer chips as its easy to imagine a lot of ways to improve them such as having hardware neural-network schedulers in complex CPUs and other similar types of optimizations. Also the concept of dedicated AI hardware is relatively new as most companies aside from Google have just been doing all their work with GPUs, but Tenstorrent is an up-and-coming company that is working to design small and energy efficient inference chips. This will make it much more attractive to use AI in a lot of every day machinery, mainly for the purposes of increasing efficiency. Imagine an electric car that uses a neural network to predict the driver's habits and tune the performance of the motors to save energy and extend range, for example.
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Yuli Ban »

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
User avatar
andmar74
Posts: 389
Joined: Mon May 24, 2021 9:10 am
Location: Denmark

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by andmar74 »

raklian wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:29 pm
andmar74 wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:41 am
I think that's too early for the Turing test. The AI can't fool me yet. I would just ask it some tricky science questions and the answers will be gibberish or half-gibberish.
But wouldn't you get the same result if you ask a layperson the same questions? :D
True, but there are many human mumbling nutsacks. I would prefer a human astrophysicist. He/She would crush any AI of today.
Tadasuke
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Location: Europe

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Tadasuke »

Kurzweil wrote in his book, that in 2009, a standard PC would have a 4 teraflops AI processor and 300 000 MIPS CPU (which is about equivalent to AMD Ryzen 1800X or current generation consoles CPU). And he estimated that 4 teraflops AI processor would do 25% of work. In 2019 he envisioned standard PC having 600 TIPS CPU and 8 petaflops AI processor that would do 90% of work. So we would have specialized processors for constantly evolving deep learning AIs that could help us with lots of stuff in most computers. And the share of work done by AI would grow with every year, exponentially. That's how I thought it would go, but reality is different. AI is on servers, connected with us, but it doesn't help much.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
User avatar
Ozzie guy
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Ozzie guy »

With Proto AGI being almost certain within the next 2 years and 8 months I have two questions on my mind.

Like AI will Proto AGI improve exponentially?

and more importantly

As Proto AGI improves exponentially and has generality will it improve until it is human/super human level AGI or do we need to make a new paradigm shift?
e.g. Narrow AI could not improve exponentially into proto AGI but maybe proto AGI can improve into human level AGI.


I ask this because if we don't need to create a new paradigm shift and proto AGI will improve exponentially into human level AGI we will have already "won" before 2025. We will get to sit back and watch proto AGI exponentially improve into human AGI over the course of some years.
User avatar
peekpok
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:51 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by peekpok »

The funny thing about Kurzweil is that he overestimated the performance increases due to hardware (failing to anticipate Moore's law slowdown), but seems to have underestimated how far we could get with good software. It would be funny if we invent AGI sooner than he expected on worse hardware than we were supposed to have by then.
User avatar
Yuli Ban
Posts: 4631
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: Proto-AGI/First Generation AGI News and Discussions

Post by Yuli Ban »

peekpok wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 7:15 pm The funny thing about Kurzweil is that he overestimated the performance increases due to hardware (failing to anticipate Moore's law slowdown)
Actually, this is a common misconception. Kurzweil has always prominently declared that Moore's Law was going to slow down and crash to a halt, even calling that it would take place in the 2020s.
It's more his critics and fanatics who claim that he said that Moore's Law would continue unabated and that it alone would be responsible for the Singularity.
Actually, Kurzweil's point was that 3D computing architectures would begin taking over, and he may be right. But he did indeed fail to predict software acceleration.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Post Reply