COVID-19 News and Discussions

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

What is wrong with these people!

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Real-world data from U.K. suggests omicron is less likely than delta to send people to the hospital
Source: Washington Post

LONDON — Researchers looking at real-world coronavirus cases in Britain reported Wednesday that the omicron variant of the coronavirus appears to be less severe than the once dominant delta strain.

Early evidence from Scotland and England suggests that omicron is sending fewer people to the hospital.

That surveillance tracks well with the latest observations from South Africa, where public health officials have reported that omicron is tending to result in milder illness. Scientists had not been sure whether that finding would hold elsewhere.

“This is a qualified good news story,” said Jim McMenamin, National Covid-19 Incident Director at Public Health Scotland and one of the co-authors of the Scottish study.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... y4z20nCo_M

[caltrek]

FDA Authorizes First COVID-19 Antiviral Pill
by Nicole Wetsman
December 22, 2021

https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/22/228 ... on-omicron

Introduction:

(The Verge) On Wednesday, the Food and Drug Administration authorized the first antiviral pill to treat COVID-19, a move that gives doctors another tool to fight the disease. The treatment, made by Pfizer, curbs the risk of hospitalization and death in high-risk patients infected with the coronavirus.

The drug is authorized for people 12 years of age and older who are at a high risk of getting seriously ill if they contract the virus.

Called Paxlovid, the treatment includes 30 pills taken at home over five days. It has to be started within a few days of symptoms — which could be a challenge in the United States, where it may be difficult for many people to get a COVID-19 test, a result, and see a doctor for a prescription in that window.

Paxlovid cut the risk of hospitalization and death by 89 percent for adults with COVID-19 at high risk of developing severe disease when it was given within three days of symptoms appearing.

The FDA is also reviewing a second COVID-19 antiviral, called molnupiravir, which is made by pharmaceutical company Merck. That drug appears less effective than Paxlovid — a clinical trial found it only reduces the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 by 30 percent. France canceled its order for molnupiravir on Wednesday.

[Ken_J]

Real-world data from U.K. suggests omicron is less likely than delta to send people to the hospital
Source: Washington Post

LONDON — Researchers looking at real-world coronavirus cases in Britain reported Wednesday that the omicron variant of the coronavirus appears to be less severe than the once dominant delta strain.

Early evidence from Scotland and England suggests that omicron is sending fewer people to the hospital.

That surveillance tracks well with the latest observations from South Africa, where public health officials have reported that omicron is tending to result in milder illness. Scientists had not been sure whether that finding would hold elsewhere.

“This is a qualified good news story,” said Jim McMenamin, National Covid-19 Incident Director at Public Health Scotland and one of the co-authors of the Scottish study.

but how does it compare to the first wave. So many want this to be a nothing burger that they aren't asking if it's a soylent green burger. Less than delta means absolutely nothing if we don't have more context.

[erowind]

/\ You mean the original strain, alpha I think? Or beta? I remember the first wave of covid having a very high death rate and then subsequent strains were much much less deadly but still way more deadly than the flu and carrying risk of greater long term health complications.

I think even delta is less deadly than the original strain. I see your point though, if omicron is less deadly than delta but as deadly as beta that doesn’t really get us anywhere.

[Xyls]

/\ You mean the original strain, alpha I think? Or beta? I remember the first wave of covid having a very high death rate and then subsequent strains were much much less deadly but still way more deadly than the flu and carrying risk of greater long term health complications.

I think even delta is less deadly than the original strain. I see your point though, if omicron is less deadly than delta but as deadly as beta that doesn’t really get us anywhere.

This is incorrect, Alpha was something like 1.5x deadlier than the original wild type and Delta is up to 4x worse than Alpha... Delta hasn't been as bad because such a huge amount of people are vaccinated.

[erowind]

.

[Xyls]

This is incorrect, Alpha was something like 1.5x deadlier than the original wild type and Delta is up to 4x worse than Alpha... Delta hasn't been as bad because such a huge amount of people are vaccinated.

The data tables I found on wikipedia agree with you so yes, true, that makes sense for Delta specifically. But I'm confused then. Why were the deaths so high in the first wave (peak in April of 2020) proportional to case count then but they weren't during the next wave (peak January of 2020.) Vaccinations weren't rolled out for most people in America until after the second wave had already started declining so vaccination isn't a good explanation to my knowledge for the lower death rate.

The 2nd wave did have the most deaths of any wave thus far but it involved multitudes more cases than the first wave did. This is all in an American context. Why didn't the 2nd wave kill significantly more people than it did?

There's actually a pretty simple answer to this. Testing capacity was not there. At the beginning tests were scarce so many people were treated under the assumption that they had COVID without official confirmation ever occurring. This was particularly acute outside of nursing homes, where many people got sick and were never able to get a COVID test,they were less prioritized as the wild-type was way more skewed to dangerous outcomes for older people. Thus the actual case counts from the time were somewhat undercounted, but the wild type also was not a particularly efficient spreader and that's why most of its transmission and damage was done in areas where people could not really spread out like nursing homes/hospital settings and some workplaces like meat packing plants which led to a series of superspreader events in HIGHLY vulnerable settings. Many of the assumptions about the prevalence of COVID at the time of the first wave were done via some target seroprevalence surveys for COVID antibodies of populations to get an idea of how widespread it was.

After the spring wave most areas reduced some restrictions over the summer thinking the virus wouldn't mutate especially in the Southern US as the anti-vax disinformation campaign really got into the swing of things by the fall. The new more dangerous Alpha variant came a long exactly at the time of max travel in the US which was Thanksgiving/Christmas and many people had let down their guard or had been lulled into a sense of complacency that it wasn't as dangerous for them/was winding down especially as vaccinations were just getting under way for the elderly. Alpha was way more transmissible then the wild type was, where as masks were nearly universally effective against the wild type even in close settings. Alpha was different which led to the catastrophe after the holidays last year. Alpha too was more serious by a not huge, but also not insignificant degree... and at that point there was still a large part of the population which had no antibodies as the first wave was not hugely horrendous outside of very specific geographic areas... where as Alpha was more universal.

Delta has been horrendous for the unvaxxed but that really is only bad for about 50% of the population. They have been seriously helped out from the immunity the vaxxed have given them as it blunted the spread, and reduced severity of illness because otherwise Delta would likely have taken the American death toll to something close to 1.5 million at this point... especially with how it was managed in the Southern U.S...

Omicron looks like it is less severe the Delta (2/3 less severe at best chances) but is something like 8x more infections. These numbers are really horrendous and mathematically would put even more pressure on the system than even Delta is. Also unlike with the other waves it's not clear Omicron will actually cause Delta to disappear or will continue causing infections along with Omicron, and even after the Omicron wave is over... as it doesn't look like they grant immunity to one another. Not a great time to be an antivaxxer... Also the age profiles for Omi and Delta are different. Delta severity really skews towards middle aged and older. Where as Omicron is less severe overall, but actually more severe for young children 0-5 when this severity profile is averaged out... This is part of the reasons daycares and schools are closing...

[Xyls]

If these numbers are even remotely correct almost everyone on the planet will have an Omicron infection over the next 90 days.

[Ken_J]

There's actually a pretty simple answer to this. Testing capacity was not there. At the beginning tests were scarce so many people were treated under the assumption that they had COVID without official confirmation ever occurring. This was particularly acute outside of nursing homes, where many people got sick and were never able to get a COVID test,they were less prioritized as the wild-type was way more skewed to dangerous outcomes for older people. Thus the actual case counts from the time were somewhat undercounted, but the wild type also was not a particularly efficient spreader and that's why most of its transmission and damage was done in areas where people could not really spread out like nursing homes/hospital settings and some workplaces like meat packing plants which led to a series of superspreader events in HIGHLY vulnerable settings. Many of the assumptions about the prevalence of COVID at the time of the first wave were done via some target seroprevalence surveys for COVID antibodies of populations to get an idea of how widespread it was.

After the spring wave most areas reduced some restrictions over the summer thinking the virus wouldn't mutate especially in the Southern US as the anti-vax disinformation campaign really got into the swing of things by the fall. The new more dangerous Alpha variant came a long exactly at the time of max travel in the US which was Thanksgiving/Christmas and many people had let down their guard or had been lulled into a sense of complacency that it wasn't as dangerous for them/was winding down especially as vaccinations were just getting under way for the elderly. Alpha was way more transmissible then the wild type was, where as masks were nearly universally effective against the wild type even in close settings. Alpha was different which led to the catastrophe after the holidays last year. Alpha too was more serious by a not huge, but also not insignificant degree... and at that point there was still a large part of the population which had no antibodies as the first wave was not hugely horrendous outside of very specific geographic areas... where as Alpha was more universal.

Delta has been horrendous for the unvaxxed but that really is only bad for about 50% of the population. They have been seriously helped out from the immunity the vaxxed have given them as it blunted the spread, and reduced severity of illness because otherwise Delta would likely have taken the American death toll to something close to 1.5 million at this point... especially with how it was managed in the Southern U.S...

Omicron looks like it is less severe the Delta (2/3 less severe at best chances) but is something like 8x more infections. These numbers are really horrendous and mathematically would put even more pressure on the system than even Delta is. Also unlike with the other waves it's not clear Omicron will actually cause Delta to disappear or will continue causing infections along with Omicron, and even after the Omicron wave is over... as it doesn't look like they grant immunity to one another. Not a great time to be an antivaxxer... Also the age profiles for Omi and Delta are different. Delta severity really skews towards middle aged and older. Where as Omicron is less severe overall, but actually more severe for young children 0-5 when this severity profile is averaged out... This is part of the reasons daycares and schools are closing...

I rather suspect that a factor in the difference is that we better understand the illness and the courses that are likely to decrease the severity. The first wave caught people off guard and there were conflicting accounts as to what was causing the fatalities in those that caught it and died. Was it pneumonia, circulatory, what? There was talk for a while that NSAIDs would make it worse, then they said that doesn't seem to be the case. I remember when somebody posted something about how outcomes were improved by putting people on their stomachs in hospitals. There were questions of whether steroids would hurt or help people.

Now hospitals have had enough experience that not only do they know the likely best course for patients, but they also have a checklist of signs that things might take a turn and the likely best courses to take to get it back on course.

I wouldn't say we have it figured out just yet, because long covid is still an un-cracked nut. And the signs we are only starting to find that we may have to watch out for the consequences down the road for those that 'recovered'. For now we know more and can get better outcomes than we did the first time around. But Delta was a big step up in the bad outcomes, and partly offset by the increased knowledge and experience we gained in the first rounds. Omi feels like it's probably just as rough, we are just better out handling it, but the numbers and age groups infected my offset the gains we made.

[wjfox]

[R8Z]

[wjfox]

[andmar74]

the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Oh no. Come on! Give us a break.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omi ... a-12503005

[Cyber_Rebel]

^ Is that why Israel is already doing 4th booster shots? Bc along with the vaccine escape potential of Omicron breaking through even 3 doses, the efficacy waning quickly would mean needing another boosting...

This is a really bad feedback loop for obvious reasons. Will that mean we need 5th or 6th boosters? What happens when another problematic variant inevitably comes after Omicron? I really am losing hope for the idea of "controlling" this pandemic. With how fast it spreads and outmaneuvers us, I'm just waiting for the inevitable Rat mutated variant (Omega?) to drop.

Seriously need the universal vaccine this year. We should've had lockdowns again along with enforced safety measures, but of course, people (especially in America) wouldn't go along with it without mass unrest. So instead, we waste resources needed to vaccinate the developing countries which ie lead to more & more mutations, hence negative feedback loop.

[raklian]

^ Is that why Israel is already doing 4th booster shots? Bc along with the vaccine escape potential of Omicron breaking through even 3 doses, the efficacy waning quickly would mean needing another boosting...

This is a really bad feedback loop for obvious reasons. Will that mean we need 5th or 6th boosters? What happens when another problematic variant inevitably comes after Omicron? I really am losing hope for the idea of "controlling" this pandemic. With how fast it spreads and outmaneuvers us, I'm just waiting for the inevitable Rat mutated variant (Omega?) to drop.

Seriously need the universal vaccine this year. We should've had lockdowns again along with enforced safety measures, but of course, people (especially in America) wouldn't go along with it without mass unrest. So instead, we waste resources needed to vaccinate the developing countries which ie lead to more & more mutations, hence negative feedback loop.

Hope the US Army vaccine we heard about is the real deal.

[Yuli Ban]