COVID-19 News and Discussions

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

Edit:

It’s the sacred duty of every Catholic to protect the vulnerable and care for others during times of plague, but that conflicts with capitalism so it’s “politicizing” now for people for whom Catholicism is an aesthetic preference.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

During the 2021 Delta wave:

- One-day record for added cases peaked on Sep-11-2021, with 26,251 cases reported in one day
- Seven-day average in cases/day peaked on Sep-12-2021, with 20,911 cases/day over a seven-day average
- Active cases peaked on Sep-17-2021, with 188,108 active cases
- ICU utilization peaked on Sep-23-2021: 79% of 4,500 ICU beds, or an estimated 3,555 ICU beds in use

From this, we can draw a rough relationship:

- a 12 day lag-time between single-day case reports, and ICU utilization
- an 11 day lag-time between seven-day average case reports, and ICU utilization
- a 6 day lag-time between active cases, and ICU utilization

Taking our current situation:

- As of Jan-08-2022, there was a single-day case report of 26,211, similar to the 26,251 from Sep-11-2021 (and succeeding days have reported even higher counts).
These numbers may reflect back into ICU utilization after 12 days: Jan-20-2022

- As of Jan-10-2022, the seven-day average case-load was 20,387 cases/day, similar to the 20,911 cases/day from Sep-12-2021 (and the average is still climbing).
These numbers may reflect back into ICU utilization after 11 days: Jan-21-2022

- As of Jan-11-2022, active cases are now at 181,286. This is somewhat short of the 188,108 active cases from Sep-17-2021, but close enough (and the succeeding days should be even higher).
These numbers may reflect back into ICU utilization after six days: Jan-17-2022

That gives us our critical period: Jan-17 to Jan-22-2022.

ICU utilization as of today, Jan-11-2022, is 41% out of 3,400 beds, or an estimated 1,394 beds in use.

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I want to commit this in writing because if Omicron really is "milder", then we shouldn't see ICU utilization to hit the same levels as it did during Delta, for a roughly equivalent number of cases.

If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, and I certainly hope I am, but I want to know that all those people saying that it's Not That Bad did not know what they were talking about by declaring mild victory over Omicron in the first week of January.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

US broke the monthly cases record with three more weeks left in January