Russia Watch Thread

[Time_Traveller]

This isn't an article but has to be said, this is from Anton Gerashchenko, the Ukrainian Minister for Internal Affairs. (Feel free to move to relevant section)

“The opponents of the letter Z must understand that they will not be spared. Everything is serious here: concentration camps, re-education, sterilization!” - this was declared by Shakhnazarov on the state TV #RussiaWarCrimes

[caltrek]

Is Russia Better Off Without Putin? The Answer is Changing.
by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz
May 5, 2022

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... n-00029966

Introduction:

(Politico) As the U.S. and its allies increase their commitment to arming Ukraine, there’s growing speculation over President Joe Biden’s endgame. Although the White House has gone to great lengths to say the United States does not have a policy of promoting regime change in Russia, there’s no question that there has been much discussion in private conference rooms and over kitchen tables about whether the United States should, in fact, be rooting for Vladimir Putin to be removed as Russia’s president.

To figure out whether we would be better off without Putin, though, we first need to weigh something else: How would Putin’s departure from power affect Russia? Would a leader or system that came after him be better or worse?

For years, many within the Russia-watching community have argued that Putin’s departure would likely unleash instability inside Russia and exacerbate its foreign aggression. For instance, a new leader who needed to consolidate power could stoke nationalist or anti-Western undercurrents already present in Russia to boost public support. Or, lacking Putin’s ability to balance Russia’s competing factions, elite infighting could spark political upheaval and violence that could destabilize the country, which after all is a nuclear power. According to this line of reasoning, Putin’s critics should be careful what they wish for: a Russia without Putin could be even worse for the West.

This view held some intellectual merit prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but now that argument is growing weaker by the day. To justify the war, Putin has stoked a dark and ugly nationalism inside Russia. His propaganda has convinced many Russians of the legitimacy of his senseless “de-nazification” campaign in Ukraine, so much so that some Russians have come to view the killing of Ukrainian civilians as acceptable. Putin openly speaks of “national traitors” and the need to “cleanse” them from society. Repression has soared and Russians have taken to reporting on “anti-patriotic” activities of their fellow citizens. And it is possible that even darker days lie ahead; the worse Russia fares in Ukraine, the greater the prospect that Putin will turn to cyberattacks or chemical or nuclear weapons to avoid the perception of defeat.

caltrek: I am still skeptical that Putin's departure would automatically mean replacement by a more desirable leader. It seems to me that any such leader is going to need the support of Kremlin hard-liners. Therefore, such a leader would be highly motivated to continue to pursue the same set of hyper-aggressive policies and indulge in the same hyperbolic rhetoric and propaganda efforts. Of course, that is just my opinion and I do not pretend to personally have any inside information to the workings of the Russian government, or of Kremlin insider attitudes toward the war, etc.

[weatheriscool]

Putin speaks at Victory Day parade on Moscow's Red Square
Source: Reuters

May 9 (Reuters) - Following are quotes from a televised speech on Monday by President Vladimir Putin at Moscow's annual Victory Day parade on Red Square, translated from Russian to English by Reuters:

ON SECURITY GUARANTEES DEMANDED BY PUTIN

"Despite disagreements in international relations, Russia has always advocated the creation of a system of equal and indivisible security, a system that is vital for the entire international community.

"In December last year, we proposed the conclusion of an agreement on security guarantees. Russia called on the West to enter an honest dialogue, in search of reasonable compromise solutions, to take each other’s interests into account. It was all in vain."

"NATO countries did not want to listen to us, meaning that they in fact had entirely different plans, and we saw this. Openly, preparations were under way for another punitive operation in Donbas, the invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-05-09/

[caltrek]

Putin speaks at Victory Day parade on Moscow's Red Square
Source: Reuters

...

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-05-09/

More on that:

The Only Right Thing We Could Do: A Sliver of Good On Victory Day
by Amy Zimet
May 9, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/further/20 ... ictory-day

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) As "pitiful, paranoid dictator" Vladimir Putin tried to appropriate Victory Day by likening his atrocities in Ukraine to the Soviet defeat of Nazis in World War ll, he got hit by "an avalanche" of righteous hackers, journalists and protesters saying, as loud as they can through Russia's lies, "No to war." Amidst thousands of troops dutifully assembled in Moscow's Red Square, Putin gave a defiant, delusional speech with "a slight shine of desperation, "blasting "the deathly threat of Nazi ideology" and charging a nefarious NATO - which makes up 6% of Russia's border - is "surrounding" the "motherland." A muted parade went forward, but a planned fighter jet flyover was cancelled for "bad weather"; given it was clear and sunny, some speculated officials canned when they found out it would have been Ukrainian tractors flying over.

[Xyls]

Prepare for the disappearance of Russia

https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... of-russia/

It’s 1991 again and, now as then, Western policymakers and analysts are terrified of confronting the two big “what if” questions raised by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calamitous war with Ukraine: What if the Russian Federation is following in the Soviet Union’s footsteps and is on the verge of collapse? What if, once again, the process is driven by internal factors and there’s nothing we can do about it?

The Soviet collapse was both a surprise and an annoyance for much of the West. Few government leaders expected a superpower to disappear overnight and even fewer greeted the prospect with enthusiasm. President George H. W. Bush’s infamous “Chicken Kiev” speech, in which he warned Ukrainians against pursuing “suicidal nationalism” and thereby risking undermining the Soviet state, became emblematic of Western fears of a Soviet collapse. The speech was also testimony to the belief that Western policy could prevent such an outcome.

[Time_Traveller]

McDonald’s to sell its business in Russia after 30 years

Mon 16 May 2022

McDonald’s has initiated a process to sell its business in Russia after 30 years of operating its restaurants in the country in the light of Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

The fast food operator said the humanitarian crisis caused by Russia’s invasion and the unpredictable operating environment meant continuing operating in Russia was untenable as it was no longer “consistent with McDonald’s values”.

The company intends to “de-arch” the outlets, removing the McDonald’s name, logo, branding and menu, before they are sold. It will, however, retain its trademarks in Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... on-ukraine

[wjfox]

McDonald’s to sell its business in Russia after 30 years

Mon 16 May 2022

McDonald’s has initiated a process to sell its business in Russia after 30 years of operating its restaurants in the country in the light of Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

The fast food operator said the humanitarian crisis caused by Russia’s invasion and the unpredictable operating environment meant continuing operating in Russia was untenable as it was no longer “consistent with McDonald’s values”.

The company intends to “de-arch” the outlets, removing the McDonald’s name, logo, branding and menu, before they are sold. It will, however, retain its trademarks in Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... on-ukraine

This is actually quite important culturally, not just economically. It was a very symbolic moment when McDonald's first established itself in Russia back in January 1990. Huge crowds of people queued up in Moscow's Pushkin Square to experience part of Western cuisine. Even though I hate junk food and large corporations, it's sort of sad to see this reversal back to the Cold War era.

But if Russia wants to isolate itself, then fine... let them get on with it.

[Time_Traveller]

McDonald’s to sell its business in Russia after 30 years

Mon 16 May 2022

McDonald’s has initiated a process to sell its business in Russia after 30 years of operating its restaurants in the country in the light of Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

The fast food operator said the humanitarian crisis caused by Russia’s invasion and the unpredictable operating environment meant continuing operating in Russia was untenable as it was no longer “consistent with McDonald’s values”.

The company intends to “de-arch” the outlets, removing the McDonald’s name, logo, branding and menu, before they are sold. It will, however, retain its trademarks in Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... on-ukraine

This is actually quite important culturally, not just economically. It was a very symbolic moment when McDonald's first established itself in Russia back in January 1990. Huge crowds of people queued up in Moscow's Pushkin Square to experience part of Western cuisine. Even though I hate junk food and large corporations, it's sort of sad to see this reversal back to the Cold War era.

But if Russia wants to isolate itself, then fine... let them get on with it.

Agreed but it would be interesting on whom they are selling them to though.

[weatheriscool]

U.S. to end Russia's ability to pay off international debt
Source: pbs

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt back to international investors on Wednesday, making a Russian default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution all but inevitable.

The Treasury Department said in a notification that it does not plan to renew the license that allowed Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.

Since the first rounds of sanctions, the Treasury Department has given banks a license to process any dollar-denominated bond payments from Russia. That window expires at midnight May 25.

There had already been signs that the Biden administration was unwilling to extend the deadline. At a press conference heading into the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Koenigswinter, Germany, last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the window existed “to allow a period of time for an orderly transition to take place, and for investors to be able to sell securities.”.

Read more: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s- ... ional-debt

[caltrek]

Russian TV Host Says that Donald Trump and the MAGA Movement Demonstrate 'Hallmarks of a Fascist State'
by Cheryl Teh
May 25, 2022

Introduction:

(Yahoo!) A host on Russian state TV has slammed former President Donald Trump, describing his behavior and the MAGA symbols used in his election campaigns as "hallmarks of a fascist state."

Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov was seen in a subtitled clip posted on Twitter railing against an opinion piece published by The New York Times. The piece, titled "We Should Say It. Russia is Fascist," was published on May 19 by Yale history professor Timothy Snyder, who specializes in fascism and totalitarianism.

In the piece, Snyder argued that "a time traveler from the 1930s would have no difficulty identifying the Putin regime as fascist," citing the controversial pro-war Z symbol and Russian leader Vladimir Putin's baseless claim that the invasion of Ukraine was aimed at the "de-Nazification" of the country.

In rebutting The Times' piece, Solovyov cited Trump and the MAGA movement, claiming that they were emblems of fascism. In particular, he pointed to Trump's campaign for president and his behavior and rhetoric during his race.

"They regularly claim that Russia is a fascist country. Listen, you bastards," Solovyov said.

Read more here:https://news.yahoo.com/russian-tv-host- ... 10698.html

[weatheriscool]

Russian TV Host Says that Donald Trump and the MAGA Movement Demonstrate 'Hallmarks of a Fascist State'
by Cheryl Teh
May 25, 2022

Introduction:

(Yahoo!) A host on Russian state TV has slammed former President Donald Trump, describing his behavior and the MAGA symbols used in his election campaigns as "hallmarks of a fascist state."

Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov was seen in a subtitled clip posted on Twitter railing against an opinion piece published by The New York Times. The piece, titled "We Should Say It. Russia is Fascist," was published on May 19 by Yale history professor Timothy Snyder, who specializes in fascism and totalitarianism.

In the piece, Snyder argued that "a time traveler from the 1930s would have no difficulty identifying the Putin regime as fascist," citing the controversial pro-war Z symbol and Russian leader Vladimir Putin's baseless claim that the invasion of Ukraine was aimed at the "de-Nazification" of the country.

In rebutting The Times' piece, Solovyov cited Trump and the MAGA movement, claiming that they were emblems of fascism. In particular, he pointed to Trump's campaign for president and his behavior and rhetoric during his race.

"They regularly claim that Russia is a fascist country. Listen, you bastards," Solovyov said.

Read more here:https://news.yahoo.com/russian-tv-host- ... 10698.html

We aint the ones censoring, using violence in the street for months on end and believe me your symbols do the same and have the same goals. I aint saying their aint elements of the right that wish to control people lives and actions, but your side needs to also own up to yours...We both want to do things to people as we believe that is how life should be lived.

[wjfox]

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

By William M. Arkin On 6/2/22 at 5:00 AM EDT

Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-puti ... ys-1710357

[weatheriscool]

Putin treated for cancer in April
Source: Newsweek

"Putin was treated for “advanced cancer” in April, 2022

There was an assassination attempt on Putin’s life in March, 2022
The high-ranking officials, who [confirmed the report] represent three separate intelligence agencies [DNI, Air Force, and DIA], are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely."

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-puti ... ys-1710357

[caltrek]

Russian Agent Kovtun, Accused in Spy Poisoning, Dead at 57
June 4, 2022

Introduction:

(ABC) MOSCOW -- Russian agent Dmitry Kovtun, who was accused by the U.K. authorities in the poisoning death of former spy Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006, has died at 57.

Russian lawmaker Andrei Lugovoi, who also was accused by the U.K. in the spy's killing, announced Kovtun’s death on his messaging app channel. Lugovoi said that Kovtun died Saturday of a COVID-19-induced illness. Russian news reports said he died at a hospital in Moscow.

A British inquiry concluded that Kovtun and Lugovoi had killed Litvinenko and that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “probably approved” the operation. The European Court of Human Rights backed the British conclusion.

The Kremlin has fiercely denied any involvement.

Kovtun and Lugovoi also denied playing any role in Litvinenko’s death.

Read more here: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... 851844233

[Time_Traveller]

Metro 2033 author put on Russian government 'wanted' list for condemning invasion of Ukraine

about 1 hour ago

Metro 2033 author Dmitry Glukhovsky is facing a lengthy prison sentence in Russia over his criticism of the country's invasion of Ukraine. A Radio Free Europe(opens in new tab) report says Glukhovsky was added to the Interior Ministry's wanted list on June 7 for violating a law imposed in March that criminalizes independent reporting and protest of the Russian war in Ukraine.

Glukhovsky said in a post on Telegram(opens in new tab) (Google translated(opens in new tab)) that he is "accused of discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for a post on Instagram." That apparently refers to this post, made on March 12, shortly after the law against criticism of the war(opens in new tab) went into effect:

https://www.pcgamer.com/metro-2033-auth ... f-ukraine/

[caltrek]

What’s in a Name? Russia Rebrands McDonald’s Restaurant Chain
June 12, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) The United States fast-food giant McDonald’s announced on May 16 that it would exit the Russian market in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

On Sunday, McDonald’s restaurants reopened their doors in Moscow once again under new Russian ownership and a new name, “Vkusno-i tochka”, which translates as “Tasty and that’s it”.

The new logo:
The famous Golden Arches have been taken down and replaced with a new logo, resembling the letter “M” and comprised of symbols that represent two fries and a hamburger against a green background.

Chief Executive Oleg Paroev, McDonald’s former Russian head, said the new company had settled on the new name – a closely guarded secret – only the day before the launch on Sunday.

There was some speculation on social media about how best to translate the new name into English. “Tasty and that’s it” was broadly adopted, although another suggestion was: “Tasty. Full stop or period”.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/ ... ant-chain

caltrek’s comment: I am not sure, but I suspect that Russian elites don’t realize how powerful nostalgia can be to loyal customers. As in “remember when this place used to be called McDonalds.” Answer, “yes, yes, I met my wife there” or “yes, I hung out with my college buddies back then,” etc. It may be a case of Western Madison Avenue advertising techniques meets Orwellian mind control efforts. No clear winner there.

[caltrek]

A New Central Asia? Kazakhstan’s Drift From Moscow
by Julian McBride
June 22, 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates into brutal street-to-street combat in the Donbas region, the Kremlin has looked to gain international recognition for their proxy states before full annexation ala Crimea. Most international governing bodies have rejected any sort of recognition for the “LPR” and “DPR” save for states with longstanding despots such as Belarus, Venezuela, Eritrea, and Syria. What the Kremlin did not plan on, however, was a sharp turn from Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev who has refused to recognize Putin’s requests of backing illegitimate states in the Luhansk and Donetsk. This has followed months of belligerent talk from Russian MPs and talk show hosts of “disloyalty” from former USSR states, and it illustrates Russia’s weakening hold on Central Asia.

Russia has dominated Kazakhstan and most of Central Asia since the imperial conquests of Nicholas I. To consolidate those conquests, Russia sent Russian colonizers to change the demographics of the region, resulting in hundreds of thousands of Turkic people being forcibly deported to other regions. During the Soviet era, Kazakhstan was used as a point of deportation for Crimean Tatars, Pontian Greeks, Georgians, and others during Stalin’s brutal reign of terror. During the dissolution of the USSR, Kazakhstan was so committed to the union that it was the last state to secede; even the Russian Federation became independent before it. Moreover, earlier this year, the president of Kazakhstan had to request Russian and overall CTSO military assistance to help with a crackdown on protestors who were dissatisfied with Tokayev’s leadership, inflation, and corruption.

Yet despite this history of Russification and Russian political influence, Tokayev has also manifested a split with Moscow’s policies following the invasion of Ukraine.

The rift did not emerge for the first time last weekend. The Kazakh government, despite being protected by the Kremlin, turned down Putin’s request to send troops to Ukraine in late February.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/22062022 ... analysis/

[Time_Traveller]

Russia wants to control energy reserves of all former Soviet countries, Mike Pompeo says

June 23, 2022

Russia's war against Ukraine is a "planned genocide" and aimed at creating "a new Russian empire that seeks to become a rump Soviet Union," with extensive energy reserves, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said.

Delivering a speech at the Hudson Institute, a conservative, Washington-based think tank, on Wednesday, Pompeo said that "Putin’s illegal, assaultive war represents a planned genocide, which is the deliberate obliteration of a people, as defined in 1948 by the United Nations."

A Republican who served as secretary of state from 2018 until 2021 during Donald Trump's presidency and has hinted he will contest the next presidential election in 2024, Pompeo also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to seize the energy resources of former Soviet territories.

"If Russia is allowed dominion over the Donbas and Ukraine’s coast, Putin will next seek to control the energy resources of other independent countries that were once part of the Soviet Empire," he said.

Helping Ukraine, he continued, was essential to preventing "Russia's reconstitution of the Soviet Empire, which would dictate world fossil fuel supplies, causing economic hemorrhaging in America and throughout the globe."

https://www.politico.eu/article/mike-po ... countries/

[Vakanai]

Russia wants to control energy reserves of all former Soviet countries, Mike Pompeo says

June 23, 2022

Russia's war against Ukraine is a "planned genocide" and aimed at creating "a new Russian empire that seeks to become a rump Soviet Union," with extensive energy reserves, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said.

Delivering a speech at the Hudson Institute, a conservative, Washington-based think tank, on Wednesday, Pompeo said that "Putin’s illegal, assaultive war represents a planned genocide, which is the deliberate obliteration of a people, as defined in 1948 by the United Nations."

A Republican who served as secretary of state from 2018 until 2021 during Donald Trump's presidency and has hinted he will contest the next presidential election in 2024, Pompeo also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to seize the energy resources of former Soviet territories.

"If Russia is allowed dominion over the Donbas and Ukraine’s coast, Putin will next seek to control the energy resources of other independent countries that were once part of the Soviet Empire," he said.

Helping Ukraine, he continued, was essential to preventing "Russia's reconstitution of the Soviet Empire, which would dictate world fossil fuel supplies, causing economic hemorrhaging in America and throughout the globe."

https://www.politico.eu/article/mike-po ... countries/

More reason to switch over away from fossils.

[caltrek]

A Russian Enclave in Europe is the Latest Source of Ukraine War Tensions
by Jen Kirby
June 23, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox) Kaliningrad is the latest spot in Europe caught up in spillover tensions from the Ukraine war.

That Kaliningrad flared up is not all that surprising considering, well, geography. Kaliningrad is a chunk of Russia wedged between Lithuania and Poland, who are both members of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It is heavily militarized. Russia has deployed nuclear-capable missiles to the oblast, or administrative region, and it is the base for Russia’s Baltic Fleet, and its only year-round ice-free port. Minor close calls have happened before in the region, so when war broke out in Europe, Kaliningrad was always a point of potential volatility.

It is a reminder that Russia’s Ukraine invasion — and the West’s intense mobilization in response — always risked worsening tensions outside of Ukraine.
What set off the spat this time was Lithuania’s enforcement of EU sanctions against Russia after a months-long transition period. Because Kaliningrad isn’t directly connected to the rest of Russia, it gets most of its supplies by land routes or by sea. Lithuania’s state rail operator announced last week that it would no longer allow the transit of sanctioned goods — like steel products and construction materials — through Lithuania to Kaliningrad
.
Russia accused Lithuania of staging a blockade, with Russia’s foreign ministry warning of “practical” retaliation. “Both Lithuania and the EU have been notified through their diplomatic missions in Moscow that such actions are inadmissible and that the steps taken should be overturned and the situation put back on the legal, legitimate track,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday, according to state-run media. “If this fails to be done, then, of course, retaliatory moves will be inevitable.”

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2022/6/23/23179942 ... -tension

caltrek’s comment: The Russian government’s attitude on this is both ludicrous and hypocritical. They want all of the benefits of a well-regulated system of international trade, and none of the responsibilities.