Putin's strategy to wear down the West in an economic war of attrition might work.
Yes, but it is a little bit like, "I will show you" (cuts off his own finger) and "take that" (cuts off another of his own fingers).
Sure, he might survive the experience and even gain some territory...but at what expense?
Ukrainian "brothers and sisters" dead. Russian soldiers dead. A loss of trust in a good part of the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, whether I like it or not, arms manufacturers in the West gain profits...as do oil companies in the United States and (presumably) Norway, etc.
Last edited by caltrek on Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Russia's military losses in the Ukraine War are about $34 billion so far. If the War ended today, Russia could replace its losses over the next five years if it raised its defense budget by 12%, which would be a tolerable strain on its economy and taxpayers. It could replace its armored vehicle losses by upgrading old tanks that have been in storage for decades, and by increasing production rates of new vehicles at existing factories.
Russia famously keeps huge quantities of Soviet-era weapons in storage for use in case of WWIII. It could replace its losses in the Ukraine War by tapping those reserves, which would remain quite large even after. That said, the stock of old equipment isn't infinite, and if the next six months of fighting is as destructive as the first six months, Russia's warehouses will start scraping the bottom of the barrel. Moreover, the time and money required to rebuild its military to pre-February 2022 levels will get larger for Russia.
If the West doesn't lose its nerve, it could win the war of attrition against Russia, and 2022 could turn out to be an inflection point in the latter's long-term national trajectory.
'Orwell is Weeping': Kremlin Propagandists say Russia is Providing 'Security Guarantees' for 'the Whole World' by Brandon Gage
August 22, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) Kremlin propagandists on Russian state television issued a new narrative this week about President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine that has cost tens of thousands of lives and placed Europe on the potential brink of multiple nuclear disasters.
Russia's notoriously Orwellian disinformation frequently oozes with genocidal rhetoric and is often self-contradictory.
But the proclamations that panelists on Russia 1 spewed out on Tuesday – which only appear on the network with Putin's approval – stretch even the most extreme dystopian gaslighting to preposterous new lengths.
"Security guarantees for the Ukrainians, the population of Ukraine, our soldiers are creating these security guarantees, as well as our officers and the militia in Donbas. These are the security guarantees for the people of Ukraine. I am absolutely certain of everything I just said," declared Russian Federation Councilman Konstantin Dolgov.
Here's a good article on why Russia's economy has endured the Western sanctions surprisingly well. The three basic reasons are:
1) Competent central bank leadership
2) Superior willingness of average Russians to endure economic hardships
3) High oil and natural gas prices https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why- ... 44672.html
Rebekah Jones wins Democratic primary, will take on Matt Gaetz for U.S. House seat
Source: Penascola News Journal
Democrat Rebekah Jones will face U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz in the battle for Florida's 1st Congressional District race, according to early results.
...
Jones came to national prominence during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic after she was fired from her position with the Florida Department of Health. Jones said she was fired for speaking out about what she said was the state's manipulation of COVID-19 data, while state officials said she was fired for insubordination.
Jones was granted whistleblower status by the Florida Office of Inspector General as it investigates Jones' claims.
After her firing, Jones became an outspoken critic of Gov. Ron DeSantis and his administration's COVID-19 response.
Former impeachment counsel wins crowded Democratic primary in New York's 10th District
Source: The Hill
Dan Goldman, an attorney who served as the lead counsel in the first impeachment trial against former President Trump, is projected to win the Democratic primary in New York’s 10th Congressional District.
The Associated Press called the race at 12:39 a.m. Wednesday.
Goldman was among a dozen candidates seeking the Democratic nod in the New York House district.
Other Democrats vying for seat included Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who represents the 17th Congressional District but ran in the 10th to avoid a primary fight with another member of Congress; New York state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, New York City Council Member Carlina Rivera and former New York City Comptroller Liz Holtzman.
Goldman, a Levi Strauss & Co. heir, poured millions of dollars into his election bid, and he had received a coveted endorsement from The New York Times editorial board. Some candidates sought to portray the former federal prosecutor as attempting to “purchase” his seat and not being liberal enough for their party.
Florida Primary Updates: Charlie Crist will face Gov. Ron DeSantis in November
Source: Orlando Sentinel
U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist defeated Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in their battle for the Democratic nomination for Florida’s governor, the Associated Press reported.
With 77% of the expected vote counted, the Associated Press reported at 8 p.m. that Crist had 60.2% of the vote to 35.1% for Fried.
Fried conceded the race before supporters in South Florida. Read our full story here.
In selecting Crist, Florida Democrats sided with a candidate backed by many in the party’s establishment who viewed him as the safest choice. The 66-year-old has already served one term as governor, running as a Republican at the time before gravitating toward Democrats. His moderate stances could appeal to voters in Florida’s teeming suburbs as Democrats seek to reverse a losing pattern in a state that was once seen as a perennial political battleground.
'Dwindling Human Resources': Kremlin Propagandists Begging for 'Professionals' to Immigrate to Russia
by Alex Henderson
August 26, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has not only inflicted considerable misery and destruction in Ukraine — it has also caused economic hardship in Russia, with aggressive economic sanctions being imposed by the Biden Administration and its European allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Moreover, the invasion has had the unintended consequence of expanding NATO; Sweden and Finland, obviously troubled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, applied for NATO membership after many years of staying out of the 73-year-old alliance.
Another consequence of the invasion, according to Daily Beast reporter Julia Davis, is “dwindling human resources” in Russia. As a result, Davis reports in an article published on August 26, pro-Kremlin propagandists are encouraging immigration to the country.
“Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to bring Russia millions of new citizens, as well as the country’s fertile land, flush with mineral and energy resources,” Davis explains. “Instead, the war has caused monumental losses on the battlefield, and the exodus of the best and the brightest from Russia. Now, dwindling human resources are causing the Kremlin and its pliant mouthpieces to brainstorm about replenishing the gaping holes in Russia’s general population, workforce and military.”
Davis continues, “Appearing on the state TV show ‘Who’s Against?’ on Tuesday, (August 23), Anna Revyakina, deputy chairwoman of the Public Chamber of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic in occupied Ukraine, voiced her ideas about attracting potential immigrants to Russia. She suggested that instead of worrying about the wave of European visa bans on Russians who want to travel abroad, Moscow should do more to attract foreigners to Russia.”
Six Months In, How are Sanctions Impacting Russia’s Economy? by Ellen Ioanes
August 28, 2022
Introduction:
(Vox) Six months into Russia’s war in Ukraine, severe economic sanctions initiated by the US and the EU seem to be having the twofold effect of stifling Russia’s economy and encouraging divestment by large corporations, with the US-based Citibank the latest to announce its formal withdrawal from the Russian market.
Citibank on Thursday issued a press release stating its intention to wind down its consumer and local commercial banking enterprises in Russia as part of a longer-term “global strategic refresh” first announced in April 2021. “We have explored multiple strategic options to sell these businesses over the past several months. It’s clear that the wind-down path makes the most sense given the many complicating factors in the environment,” CEO of Legacy Franchises Titi Cole said in the release, though as of July the bank was still attempting to negotiate a sale of its local commercial and consumer banking sectors to local Russian companies, the Financial Times reported at the time. Sanctions complicated the sale to at least one potential buyer, Rosbank; owner Vladimir Potanin was recently sanctioned by the UK.
Citibank’s announcement, and the decision to wind down its operations rather than continue to pursue sales, is somewhat of an indicator that sanctions and bans are having their intended effect. “Months ago, the United States banned all new investment in Russia’s economy,” senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy Eddie Fishman told Vox via email. “So any US companies that remain in Russia are barely keeping the lights on.”
However, that doesn’t mean the Russian economy has collapsed; Russia’s central bank has been adjusting the country’s monetary policy to keep the ruble afloat, and it’s currently the strongest it’s been against the dollar since 2018, CNN reported Sunday. After a crash early in the war, when the US froze $600 billion in foreign currency reserves, the central bank took aggressive action, hiking interest rates to control inflation. That seems to have paid off, with inflation apparently leveling out after an April high of 18 percent.
Russian Prosecutors Ask for 24-year Sentence for Ex-reporter August 30, 2022
Introduction:
MOSCOW (AP via Courthouse News) — Russian prosecutors at the trial of a former journalist asked the court Tuesday to hand him a 24-year prison sentence on treason charges.
Ivan Safronov. who worked as a journalist for a decade before becoming an adviser to the head of the Russian space corporation Roscosmos, has been in custody since his July 2020 arrest in Moscow. He has rejected the charges of passing military secrets to Czech intelligence and insisted on his innocence.
Safronov's case reflects the challenges faced by Russian journalists, which have grown even tougher amid Moscow's military action in Ukraine.
Safronov, who covered military and security issues for the leading Russian business daily Kommersant before joining Roscosmos, stated that he had collected all the information from open sources in the course of his work and did nothing illegal. He has argued that the investigators have failed to spell out the treason charges and explain what secrets he had allegedly revealed.
Many Russian journalists and human rights activists have pushed for Safronov’s release, and some have alleged that the authorities may have wanted to take revenge for his reporting that exposed Russian military incidents and shady arms deals.
caltrek wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 4:23 pm 'Dwindling Human Resources': Kremlin Propagandists Begging for 'Professionals' to Immigrate to Russia
by Alex Henderson
August 26, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has not only inflicted considerable misery and destruction in Ukraine — it has also caused economic hardship in Russia, with aggressive economic sanctions being imposed by the Biden Administration and its European allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Moreover, the invasion has had the unintended consequence of expanding NATO; Sweden and Finland, obviously troubled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, applied for NATO membership after many years of staying out of the 73-year-old alliance.
Another consequence of the invasion, according to Daily Beast reporter Julia Davis, is “dwindling human resources” in Russia. As a result, Davis reports in an article published on August 26, pro-Kremlin propagandists are encouraging immigration to the country.
“Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to bring Russia millions of new citizens, as well as the country’s fertile land, flush with mineral and energy resources,” Davis explains. “Instead, the war has caused monumental losses on the battlefield, and the exodus of the best and the brightest from Russia. Now, dwindling human resources are causing the Kremlin and its pliant mouthpieces to brainstorm about replenishing the gaping holes in Russia’s general population, workforce and military.”
Davis continues, “Appearing on the state TV show ‘Who’s Against?’ on Tuesday, (August 23), Anna Revyakina, deputy chairwoman of the Public Chamber of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic in occupied Ukraine, voiced her ideas about attracting potential immigrants to Russia. She suggested that instead of worrying about the wave of European visa bans on Russians who want to travel abroad, Moscow should do more to attract foreigners to Russia.”
Watching the War on Russian Television by Brent Eastwood
September 3, 2022
Introduction:
(Foreign Policy Research Institute via Eurasia Review) — Those watching Russian television to follow the war in Ukraine live in an alternative reality. Commentators on state-owned Russian television news stations have spread the falsehood that Ukraine is staging fake attacks on their own cities to make it look like Russia is the aggressor. Russian news broadcasters have also claimed that the Russian military taking control of the Chernobyl nuclear plant was done to keep Ukraine from making a nuclear weapon.
Independent stations that have dared to cover the war even-handedly have been silenced. The Kremlin promulgated a federal law in March that made it illegal to deliberately broadcast “misleading information” and partake in “discrediting the use of the Russian Federation Armed Forces.” This resulted in an independent media blackout in Russia this spring.
But a familiar light is now shining elsewhere, albeit dimly. Dozhd (TV Rain), the renegade Russian television network critical of the war in Ukraine, is broadcasting again from Riga, Latvia, through its YouTube channel. Operations re-started in July after Dozhd was shut down in March. Its staff walked off the set during its final broadcast from Russia. The Dozhd website was blocked by the Prosecutor-General’s Office hastening the station’s demise in Russia.
Ordinary Russians spend substantial amounts of time watching television news. The content of these programs offers a window into how people in Russia are indoctrinated to think about issues such as the war in Ukraine. Most news coverage is far from fair and balanced and with independent voices disappearing, the Kremlin and its allies in the media can better blanket the airwaves with propaganda. This allows the regime to stay in power and the masses to be misled and silenced. Television news can thus write history while more liberal news outlets are banned and either silenced or have reduced impact.
Dozhd’s founder, journalist Mikhail Zygar, posted an open letter in March signed by several reporters who called for the war in Ukraine to end. Russian nomenklatura from the Federal Communications Agency said Dozhd was “inciting extremism, abusing Russian citizens, causing mass disruption of public calm and safety, and encouraging protests.”
Russian government privately estimates that Western sanctions will do more damage than it publicly admits.
Under the worst of three scenarios envisaged in the internal report revealed by Bloomberg, Russian GDP plunges by 12pc by 2024 compared to 2021 and does not fully recover by 2030.
In the “inertial” scenario, Russia suffers a 8.3pc peak-to-trough slump by next year, taking until the latter half of the 2020s to bounce back.
As Russian forces hastily retreated in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday in one of their most embarrassing setbacks of the war, President Vladimir V. Putin was at a park in Moscow, presiding over the grand opening of a Ferris wheel.
“It’s very important for people to be able to relax with friends and family,” Mr. Putin intoned.
The split-screen contrast was stunning, even for some of Mr. Putin’s loudest backers. And it underscored a growing rift between the Kremlin and the invasion’s most fervent cheerleaders. For the cheerleaders, Russia’s retreat appeared to confirm their worst fears: that senior Russian officials were so concerned with maintaining a business-as-usual atmosphere back home that they had failed to commit the necessary equipment and personnel to fight a long war against a determined enemy.
Russian Oligarch ‘Falls Overboard’ In Latest Mystery Death by Aaron Tinney
September 13, 2022
Introduction:
(MSN) Yet another of Vladimir Putin’s hand-picked senior cronies is dead after mysteriously ‘falling overboard’ a boat.
Ivan Pechorin, 39 – the Russian despot’s ‘point man’ for developing Russia’s vast Arctic resources – is the ninth suspicious death from within the Kremlin’s inner circle of powerbrokers in the past several months.
Many of them are linked to the country’s energy sector as it comes under scrutiny over its supplies to Europe – with an astounding three of them apparent murder-suicides.
Pechorin, managing director of Putin’s Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, had recently attended a major conference hosted by Putin in Vladivostok and apparently drowned while sailing his private yacht off the country’s Pacific coast.
Daily Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda said he plunged overboard in waters close to Russky Island near Cape Ignatiev.
Russian Based Human Rights Group Says Over 1,100 Russians Arrested for Protesting Putin's War Escalation by Kenny Stancil
September 21, 2022
Introduction:
(Common Dreams) More than 1,100 people and counting have been arrested at anti-war protests held in 38 cities across Russia following President Vladimir Putin's Wednesday announcement that as many as 300,000 reservists will be called up to serve in a "partial mobilization" aimed at beating back Ukraine's counteroffensive.
That's according to OVD-Info, an independent human rights group based in Russia.
"The most valuable thing that they can take from us is the life of our children," one unnamed Moscow resident told The Associated Press. "I won't give them [the] life of my child." Asked whether protesting would make a difference, she said: "It won't help, but it's my civic duty to express my stance. No to war!"
The Vesna anti-war coalition called for demonstrations, declaring: "Thousands of Russian men—our fathers, brothers, and husbands—will be thrown into the meat grinder of the war. What will they be dying for? What will mothers and children be crying for?"
AP reported:
As protest calls circulated online, the Moscow prosecutor's office warned that organizing or participating in such actions could lead to up to 15 years in prison. Authorities issued similar warnings ahead of other protests recently. Wednesday's were the first nationwide anti-war protests since the fighting began in late February.
Putin doesn't have anything besides fear, violence and imprisonment. The guy is a loser and he knows it and it scares the living hell out of him...I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up using nukes before this is all over.
The ethnic unrest in Russia is beginning and this is likely going to explode. The overmobilization of minority groups is now becoming obvious and this is going to turn ethnic regions against the central Russian government. Expect a new civil war in Southern Russia soon, as if the option you are giving their men and families is death they are going to turn against you. The end of the Russian colonial project is nigh. This could become one of the most violent and chaotic periods in history. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns the whole Muslim world against Russia, and this starts a jihad.
Don't be surprised if the West also starts funding weapons here... especially if Putin gets stupid enough to use nukes.
Anger Over Troop Conscription Rages in Russia September 26, 2022
Introduction:
(Al Jazeera) Hostility towards Russia’s troop mobilisation continues as violence broke out in an impoverished ethnic-minority region and a gunman opened fire at a recruitment office, seriously wounding the commandant.
A young man entered a military enlistment centre in the Siberian city of Ust-Ilimsk and shot the commander at close range on Monday morning.
Russian media reports said the attacker walked into the facility saying: “No one will go fight,” and “We will all go home now.” Local authorities said the commandant was in intensive care in “extremely grave” condition.
The man, identified in the media as 25-year-old resident Ruslan Zinin, was reportedly upset a call-up notice was served to his best friend who did not have any combat experience, which authorities say is the main criteria for the draft.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday acknowledged some call-ups had been issued in error and mistakes would be corrected. He said no decision had been made on closing Russia’s borders amid an exodus of military-age men.
