2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[Ozzie guy]

Bidens a selfish son of a bitch if he doesn't drop out. There's no fucking way around it.

Wouldn't surprise me if most politicians were narcissists. In the sense of running for office Narcissism is like the opposite of autism. A brain condition were you naturally act in ways that make you look good and think your the best. Imagine the confidence needed to think your good enough to run a country. A lot of narcissists aren't obvious like Trump his just one type which fits a Hollywood stereotype. Many are quite stealthy.

[Cyber_Rebel]

AOC has indicated that the Democrats have no real internal strategy when it comes to replacing Biden, signifying deep divisions among special interest parties.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warns anti-Biden Democrats about what comes next if they succeed

MSNBC

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has issued a dire warning to her party about the chaos that could ensue if they succeed in pushing President Joe Biden off the ticket. And she criticized Democrats who’ve given off-the-record quotes that suggest the party has resigned itself to a second Trump term.

In an Instagram Live video on Thursday, Ocasio-Cortez warned liberals that a brokered convention could lead to chaos, in part because she says some of the Democratic “elites” who want Biden out also don’t want Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in his place.

“If you think that is going to be an easy transition, I’m here to tell you that a huge amount of the donor class and these elites who are pushing for the president not to be the nominee also do not want to see the VP be the nominee,” she said.

Ocasio-Cortez claimed none of the people she’s spoken with who are calling on Biden to drop out — including lawmakers and legal experts — have articulated a plan to swap out the nominee without minimizing the serious legal and procedural challenges that are likely to ensue.

[raklian]

Might be why the safest bet is to keep Biden at the top of the ticket. Biden did defeat Trump in the past so he has the benefit of precedence.

[firestar464]

IDK how well politicians know each other, but it's not that uncommon for a representative to have never heard of another IIRC. Congress is big.

[wjfox]

[firestar464]

IMO it's the Dems that are shredding his legacy by airing their dirty laundry in public. They're creating a self-fulfilling prophecy

[weatheriscool]

Ignoring controversy, Democrats move forward with nominating Biden via virtual roll call

Source: NBC News

July 19, 2024, 1:41 PM EDT

Democrats are in an unprecedented crisis over who should be their presidential candidate. But the party committee that governs the nominating process met Friday and proceeded as if everything was normal and its entire plan was not at risk of being upended at any minute.

As calls mount for President Joe Biden to step aside and let another Democrat lead the party into the November election against former President Donald Trump, the Democratic National Convention’s Rules Committee held a virtual meeting where the message to delegates was, essentially: Everything is proceeding as planned.

The meeting was convened to discuss plans for a virtual roll call vote to formally nominate Biden weeks before the convention, but no votes were taken or decisions made. Instead, party leaders used the meeting to inform the nearly 200 members of the committee about the process that is currently planned, which they had already laid out in a letter earlier this week.

The committee will meet again no later than Friday, July 26, to consider adopting the virtual roll call process, which would not be held until the first week of August.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... rcna162161

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

My current predicion is for another 2016 with Donald Trump being elected by 315 elv's, but the house is going republican with probably 10-12 seats flipping republican and 52 seats in the senate. Very similar to 2016-2018. I expect that Trump will probably gut a large portion of the safetynet and probably remake the supreme court in away that will probably outlaw most of the government.

[weatheriscool]

My current predicion is for another 2016 with Donald Trump being elected by 315 elv's, but the house is going republican with probably 10-12 seats flipping republican and 52 seats in the senate. Very similar to 2016-2018. I expect that Trump will probably gut a large portion of the safetynet and probably remake the supreme court in away that will probably outlaw most of the government.

If Trump gets NH, Maine and comes close in places like Va and nevada I could see the republicans get ~53 senate seats and upwards of 250 in the house. It is possible if Biden doesn't step down and current polling is right.

[spryfusion]

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[weatheriscool]

Biden will go down in history as one of the worse presidents in the history of this country for what he is about to do. He is reelecting Trump and fucking over the entire down ticket. Trump will abolish most of the government before this is over.

[caltrek]

My current predicion is for another 2016 with Donald Trump being elected by 315 elv's, but the house is going republican with probably 10-12 seats flipping republican and 52 seats in the senate. Very similar to 2016-2018. I expect that Trump will probably gut a large portion of the safetynet and probably remake the supreme court in away that will probably outlaw most of the government.

If Trump gets NH, Maine and comes close in places like Va and nevada I could see the republicans get ~53 senate seats and upwards of 250 in the house. It is possible if Biden doesn't step down and current polling is right.

Regarding the House of Representatives, this is a little pessimistic. Many polls have consistently shown a one percent lead by Democrats in generic Republican versus Democratic races. Arguably, Republicans do have a slight advantage due to gerrymandering, but I don't see that getting them to 250.

In the last midterms, I hinted at the possibility that Democrats might outperform the polls. Turns out I was right. My reasoning was that a lot of newly registered voters were motivated to vote by the abortion issue and that this was probably not being properly factored into the polling selection criteria. It could be that polls for 2024 have corrected for such problems, but it is not unrealistic to hope that Democrats will once again outperform come election time.

Another important thing to keep in mind is that one can expect this to be the absolute peek in Republican poll results. The reason is that historically there is usually a bump immediately after a convention in favor or the party that has just concluded this process. The Democrats have yet to have their convention and all the publicity that will go with that event. A critical factor will be how much unity they can show. If arguments about Biden's age spill onto the convention floor, or disagreements as to how to select an alternative candidate emerge, then this opportunity may well be squandered.

At any rate, it aint over until it is over.

[Cyber_Rebel]

Biden will go down in history as one of the worse presidents in the history of this country for what he is about to do. He is reelecting Trump and fucking over the entire down ticket. Trump will abolish most of the government before this is over.

I wouldn't say he's one of the worst, depending on one's viewpoint. More like a Jimmy Carter-esque kind of president, being one term and despite being well meaning, couldn't accomplish specific policy goals for various reasons. One could argue that Carter himself was one of the worst due to losing to Ronald Reagan in such catastrophic fashion which set the United States on its trajectory over the last 40 years to begin with.

There's also no guarantee that switching out the candidate automatically means that Trump is defeated. People underestimate the GOP every single election cycle and are surprised when they perform better than expected.

Really, the American public is just not as "progressive" as some claim them to be in the first place. Trump being competitive at all is not just because of Biden's perceived weakness.

[Cyber_Rebel]

That sounds rather, Trumpian in itself, doesn't it?

Julián Castro on the Biden Problem, and What the Democratic Party Got Wrong
A former Presidential candidate, Castro tells David Remnick why Democratic leaders concerned about President Biden’s age were afraid to challenge the establishment and run against him.

New Yorker

The panic that gripped Democrats during and after President Biden’s performance in the June debate against Donald Trump didn’t come out of nowhere. In January of last year, the Radio Hour produced an episode about President Biden’s age, and the concerns that voters were already expressing. But no nationally prominent Democratic politician was willing to challenge Biden in the primaries. After the debate, Julián Castro was one of the first prominent Democrats to say that Biden should withdraw from the race, and he went on to tell MSNBC’s Alex Wagner that potential Democratic rivals and even staffers “got the message” that their careers would be “blackballed” if they challenged him. Castro—who came up as the mayor of San Antonio, and then served as President Obama’s Secretary for Housing and Urban Development—ran against Biden in the Presidential primary for the 2020 election. He talks with David Remnick about how we got here, and what the Democratic Party should have done differently.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Detroit Free Press Poll: Trump +7 in Michigan
https://www.freep.com/story/news/politi ... 468127007/

An exclusive new Free Press poll of likely Michigan voters shows former President Donald Trump has taken a notable 7-percentage-point lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in the state, a result certain to further worry Democrats already pushing for Biden to abandon his reelection bid.

"It's only going to add to the pressure on Biden to step aside and have someone replace him," said Bernie Porn, the pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing, which conducted the survey of 600 voters for the Free Press and its media partners. "The Democrats are in a difficult position."

The poll showed Trump, who held a rally in Grand Rapids on Saturday evening, leading Biden 49%-42% in a head-to-head matchup, with 9% undecided, saying they would vote for neither or refusing to answer. In a five-way race, Trump led with 43% to 36% for Biden, 8% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. Again 9% said they either would not vote for president, pick someone else or were undecided.

Trump led in every region of the state, including in metro Detroit — defined as Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties and seen as the most predominantly Democratic region in Michigan — where he held a slim but remarkable 46%-44% edge in the head-to-head matchup with Biden and a 43%-38% margin in the five-way race.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Thankfully downticket isn't going to shit yet!