2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

[weatheriscool]

Like I said above. Harris will get to at least +3 and maybe +5 within the next month. Trump is now on defense.

[Time_Traveller]

Kamala Harris makes history as whirlwind week upends US election

Sat 27 Jul 2024 10.00 BST



The telephone line was a little fuzzy, and the voice on the end gravelly from several days of Covid isolation. Yet the poignancy of the message, and the moment itself, could not have been clearer: “I’m watching you, kid. I love you,” the speaker said.

Joe Biden’s warmhearted call to his vice-president, Kamala Harris, at the Democratic party’s campaign headquarters in Delaware on Monday marked a generational shift in US politics, a symbolic passing of the torch from parent to progeny.

In terms of the 2024 presidential election race it was also a defining moment. Harris, a former prosecutor, state attorney general, California senator, and for three and a half years the 81-year-old Biden’s White House understudy, was appearing for the first time as her party’s preferred new candidate, less than 24 hours after her boss’s stunning announcement that he would not seek a second term of office sent a seismic shock across the country.

There followed what by any metric could be called a whirlwind week on the campaign trail in an extraordinary month in American history already notable for the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump, the Republican party’s candidate for the 5 November election.

By Wednesday, Harris was addressing an historically Black sorority in Indianapolis as the Democratic presumptive nominee, having secured the support of enough delegates at the party’s national convention in Chicago next month to clinch the nomination.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... s-election

[weatheriscool]

Kamala Harris Erases Donald Trump's Gains With Hispanic Voters in New Poll

00:58
By Andrew Stanton
Weekend Staff Writer

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris- ... rs-1930682

"SNIP...........

Vice President Kamala Harris is erasing former President Donald Trump's gains with Hispanic voters, according to a poll.

Hispanic voters have been a crucial part of the Democratic Party's coalition for decades, but Republicans have made some inroads with them in recent elections. Polls suggested that Trump was winning over more Hispanic voters, compared with President Joe Biden, ahead of the November election.

However, Harris may be winning back some of these voters, according to a poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

The survey, conducted among 1,142 registered voters from July 22 to 24, shows Harris winning Hispanic voters by 19 points over the former president (57 percent to 38 percent). In June, a New York Times/Siena College poll found Biden winning Hispanic voters by only a single point (45 percent to 44 percent).

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders formally endorses Vice President Kamala Harris for president at Portland rally

[link:https://www.wmtw.com/article/bernie-san ... y/61717060|

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

This is why democrats will likely retake the house.

[wjfox]

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U.S. Voter Registrations Surge as Republicans Try to Limit Ballot Access
by Brett Wilkins
July 26, 2024

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) The group behind a popular get-out-the-vote technology platform said Friday that it's registered more than 100,000 new U.S. voters since President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race, a surge that came amid mounting Republican efforts to make it harder to register and vote.

Vote.org said that 84% of voters registered in the new wave are under age 35. Nearly 1 in 5 new registrees is 18 years old. Andrea Hailey, the group's CEO, said that "since 2020, we have led the largest voter registration drive in U.S. history," with more than 7.8 million people registered.

After dropping out, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to face former Republican President Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) in the November election. The new presumptive Democratic candidate has already earned endorsements from many Democrats in Congress and groups advocating on issues including climate, labor, and reproductive rights.

Vote.org's success comes as Republicans at the federal level are proposing and passing legislation creating obstacles to the ballot box.

Earlier this month, U.S. House Republicans passed Rep. Chip Roy's (R-Texas) Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would require proof of American citizenship to vote in federal elections. Republicans claim the bill is meant to fix the virtually nonexistent "problem" of noncitizen voter fraud.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/u-s- ... istration

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U.S. Public Rapidly Sours on Project 2025 as Awareness Grows
by Julia Conley
July 23, 2024

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) New polling out on Tuesday suggests that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's best hope for Project 2025, the far-right policy agenda that at least 140 of his former administration officials helped craft, was that most Americans would remain unfamiliar with it.
Over the past month, though, a growing number of voters have learned more about the 900-page plan spearheaded by the right-wing Heritage Foundation—and public opinion of the agenda has plummeted as it's become more widely known.

Progressive polling firm Navigator Research found in a survey conducted between July 11-14 that 54% of Americans were familiar with Project 2025, which calls for the weakening and eradication of federal agencies and the consolidation of power with the president, the elimination of job protections of thousands of federal employees, and the withdrawal of mifepristone—a pill used in a majority of abortions in the U.S.—from the market.

That's an increase of 25 percentage points from Navigator's poll on Project 2025 just one month ago, said the firm.

Just 11% of people polled viewed the agenda favorably, while 43% had unfavorable views—a 24-point increase since June.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/proj ... 668798316

[caltrek]

Andrew Prokop writing in Vox recently had an article entitled "How Kamala Harris could win (or lose) the Electoral College." Its conclusions are implied in much of the posts in this thread concerning polling in key states. So, for readers of this thread it is more a going over of ground that has already been covered. Still, it is a good read in that it is a nice summary and ties the demographics together with the political geography:

https://www.vox.com/politics/363256/kam ... ate-polls

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Harris Raises $200 Million in First Week of Campaign
by Erin Doherty
July 28, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Vice President Kamala Harris brought in $200 million during the first week of her presidential campaign, with 66% of all donations coming from first-time donors, according to the campaign.

Why it matters: President Biden's decision to step aside as the Democratic presidential nominee upended the 2024 race, giving the party a jolt of enthusiasm and an influx of donations.

• Former President Trump and the Republican National Committee had been catching up to Biden and the Democratic National Committee in fundraising before Biden's extraordinary decision to drop out.

• Harris' fundraising haul will give her campaign a major financial boost as she seeks to officially lock up the party's nomination and win the White House in November.

Driving the news: More than 170,000 new volunteers have joined the Harris campaign in the week since Biden dropped out and endorsed her as the nominee, per the campaign.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/28/kamal ... den-trump

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Media Rebounds on Seismic Election News Cycle
by Neal Rothschild,and Sara Fischer
July 28, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Engagement with news content has spiked over the past few weeks, giving news publishers a much-needed reprieve from bad traffic and ratings.

Why it matters: Election years are typically a boon to the news business, but this year has turned out to be one of the most brutal ever for the industry, with layoffs and cost-cutting measures reaching records.

• Job cuts across broadcast, digital, and print news companies were up 14.6% during the first half of this year, compared to the first half of last year, per Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Additional extract:

By the numbers: Since the June 27 debate, web traffic to U.S. news sites spiked to the highest level since early 2023, according to data from Taboola Newsroom users.

• Publishers saw major bumps in interest on social media: Across a group of eight major publications we looked at, there was a 50% increase in Instagram interactions and a 42% jump in Facebook interactions in the last 30 days compared to the month prior, according to exclusive data from NewsWhip.

• Cable news saw ratings bumps in June due to CNN's June 27th debate, which aired across most major cable and broadcast news networks. Fox has seen an enormous ratings jump this month and averaged more than 5 million total viewers in primetime last week during the RNC.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/28/media ... ump-biden

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

I am not quite sure what is going on here, but the Real Clear Politics site shows Fox News polls with somewhat different numbers:

• Wisconsin 50 to 49 in Trump's favor

• Michigan tied with Trump at 49 per cent to Harris 49 at per cent

• Pennsylvania tied with Trump at 49 percent to Harris 49 per cent

Third party candidates included ties the race up in Wisconsin and favors Trump in Michigan (by 2 per cent) and Harris in Pennsylvania (by 2 per cent).

Source (see results for Friday July 26, 2024): https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

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Political Party Gap in Agribusiness Donations Continues to Widen
by Ben Felder
July 24, 2024

Introduction:

(Investigate Midwest) Republican candidates for federal office have long attracted more political donations from agriculture businesses than Democrats. But the gap has significantly widened over the past decade.

During the 2020 election cycle, which included a presidential race, the agribusiness industry gave nearly $98 million to Republican candidates, more than double the $46 million given to Democrats.

The campaign donation figures were compiled by Open Secrets, a nonprofit that tracks political donations using federal records. Agribusiness donors include meat and crop producers, dairy companies, tobacco companies and food manufacturers.

Agribusiness spending on federal candidates set a new record in 2020, with many political observers saying trade wars between the U.S. and China sparked the industry’s increase in giving.

So far, during the 2024 election cycle, agribusiness donors have given $41.3 million to Republicans and $18.5 million to Democrats. Former President Donald Trump has been the recipient of $2.9 million of those funds, the largest amount of any candidate for president or Congress.

Read more here (including graph): https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/07 ... to-widen/

[caltrek]