2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[wjfox]

It shouldn't be this close. She really needs Pennsylvania.

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Harris won WaPo’s panel of swing voters 22-2.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... _p001_f002

[weatheriscool]

[Cyber_Rebel]

Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after presidential debate
The singer's endorsement was signed "Childless Cat Lady."

"I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election," Swift said in a post on Instagram to her more than 283 million followers. "I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos."

[Bird]

Definitely curious where he got this wrong info...

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

It is being negotiated that Taylor Swift will hold off until mid-October to endorse @KamalaHarris in a major public endorsement and that this may happen in the midst of her Eras Tour in Miami, Florida, for major impact!

Looks like she moved up the timing of that endorsement:

Taylor Swift Endorses Kamala Harris in Post Signed "Childless Cat Lady," Advocating for "Calm and Not Chaos"
by Kaia Hubbard
September 11, 2024

Introduction:

(CBS) Taylor Swift said she plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in a post to Instagram shortly after the first presidential debate Tuesday between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

"I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election," Swift said in the post, adding that she's voting for Harris "because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them."

Swift said Harris "is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos," noting that she was "so heartened and impressed by her selection" of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate due to his support for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and "a woman's right to her own body."

The pop star also appeared to troll the Republican ticket by signing "Childless Cat Lady" below her name — echoing a phrase Trump's running mate, JD Vance, has faced blowback over using in a 2021 interview, when he said the country was being run by "a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives." Vance later said he was being sarcastic.

The megastar said she had been made aware of recent AI-generated images Trump had promoted that falsely suggested she had endorsed him, adding that the incident "brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter."

Read more here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taylor-sw ... orsement/

[caltrek]

Pundits Declare:The Debate Between Harris and Trump Wasn’t Close
by Domenico Montanaro
September 11, 2024

Introduction:

(NPR) Well, that was different from the June 27 debate between President Biden and Donald Trump.

If that June debate was a five-alarm fire for Democrats that eventually forced Biden from the race, after Tuesday’s debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s proponents should probably check the temperature in their own house.

What happened – and what could it mean going forward?

Conclusion:

Could this debate have changed some minds? Maybe. But views of Trump have been ingrained. This race is very much a coin flip, according to the polls, and that’s unlikely to change very much even after this debate, because of how hyper-polarized this country is.

Read more here: https://www.npr.org/2024/09/11/g-s1-22 ... akeaways

Edit: Here are articles on this topic that appeared in Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... 00178594 and https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... -00178590

[caltrek]

It looks like it may have been more than just the pundits who rated the debate a win for Harris:

Kamala Harris Sees Betting Odds Flip in Her Favor After Donald Trump Debate
by Andrew Stanton
September 11, 2024

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Vice President Kamala Harris saw betting odds flip in her favor following her debate against former President Donald Trump.

Conclusion:

Following the debate, a CNN flash poll found that 63 percent of debate viewers believed Harris won the debate, compared to 37 percent who believed Trump won.

Betting odds shifted toward Harris after the debate, which at times saw the two candidates exchange barbs, concluded, according to two bookmakers.

BetOnline saw their odds, previously favoring Trump, flip to Harris after the debate.

Read more here: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris ... -1951834

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

We are seeing our first ever votes populate on the early voting dashboard here: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote ... vote-iowa/

A whopping...30 votes from Iowa!

Breakdown:

Democrat 73.3 %
Republican 20.0 %
None/Minor 6.7 %

[caltrek]

North Carolina poll results: Quinnipiac, Date 9/4 to 9/8, 940 Likely Voters, Margin of Error of 3.2 %, Trump 47%, Harris 50%

Source (see result for poll conducted September 4 to September 8): https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... -vs-harris

Also this:

Harris Had a Lead of 3 Points in North Carolina on Eve of 1st Debate
Debate
September 9, 2024

Introduction:

(Survey USA) SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh shows Kamala Harris capturing North Carolina's 16 electoral votes if the election were held today, two months from Election Day and on the cusp of the candidates' September 10th debate.

Harris takes 49% today, Trump 46%; other candidates poll below 1%, with just 3 of 676 likely voters telling SurveyUSA they will vote for another candidate; 5% of likely voters say they are undecided. Harris leads by 9 points among women; Trump leads by 3 among men – a 12-point gender gap. Harris is ahead among voters under age 50, leading by 9 points among 18 to 34-year-olds and by 8 points among those 35 to 49 – but when younger voters are broken down further, Harris, perhaps buoyed by her campaign's social media efforts, holds a 48-point lead among voters 18 to 24, while Trump leads by 7 among 25 to 34-year-olds. 50 to 64-year-olds give Harris a narrow 2-point edge; those 65+ back Trump by a 5-point margin. Trump leads by 20 points among white voters (27 points among white men, 14 points among white women); Harris leads by 74 points among Black voters (75 points among Black women, 73 points among Black men). Latino voters favor Harris by a 52-point margin. Harris leads by 34 points in urban parts of the state; Trump leads by 16 in rural areas. In the suburbs, Harris has a 5 point edge, but suburban women back Harris by 14 points, while suburban men narrowly favor Trump, 47% to 45%.

Read more here: https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollR ... 45c17073

caltrek comment: This could give Harris some insurance in case things go south in some other state(s). Alternatively, it could portend a big blow out for Harris. Of course, these two polls may also turn out to be inaccurate outliers.

[caltrek]

Could Taylor Swift’s Endorsement of Kamala Harris Make a Difference?
by Richard T. Longoria
Updated September 11, 2024

Extract::

(The Conversation) So far, a range of other celebrities, including actor Jeff Bridges, the singer Cher, movie director Spike Lee and comedian Amy Schumer, among others, have endorsed Harris.

Meanwhile, comedian Roseanne Barr, as well as singer Kid Rock, model Amber Rose and actor Jon Voight have endorsed Trump.

Some researchers have estimated that Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in 2008 gave him an additional 1 million votes. Winfrey also spoke at the August 2024 Democratic National Convention and endorsed Harris there.

But overall, research shows that celebrity political endorsements don’t matter enough to determine an election’s results.
…
(Celebrity endorsements) still do matter and for many different reasons. Celebrities can easily get media attention, act as campaign surrogates, expand the voter base and make campaign contributions. All these things can help a candidate win.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/could-tayl ... m-236284

[weatheriscool]

I think Wis and Michigan are both likely Harris so it is up to Pa, NC or Ga to give her the presidency.

[weatheriscool]

Pa that is literally the most important of the swing states is reporting
Total Voted by Party Registration
Party Total Voted Percent
Democrat 25 56.8 %(harris)
Republican 17 38.6 %(Trump)
None/Minor 2 4.5 %
TOTAL 44 100 %
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote ... nsylvania/

[weatheriscool]