2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Police investigate apparent gunfire incident at Harris' Arizona campaign office

https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/polic ... 0113989929

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https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalba ... -carolina/

NE-02 from Lean D to Likely D.

NE-SEN (Fischer/Osborn) from Safe R to Likely R.

NC-GOV from Lean D to Likely D (lol).

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A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll.

https://archive.ph/wbcxQ

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In New Poll Independent Overtakes Republican Senator in Nebraska
by Flynn Nicholls
September 25, 2024

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn has overtaken Republican incumbent Deb Fischer in red-leaning Nebraska, according to a recent poll.

The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA between September 20 and September 23. It surveyed 558 likely voters with 44 per cent supporting Fischer and 45 percent supporting Osborn, meaning his lead fell within the +/-4.8 percent margin of error.

Still, the result is significant for an independent candidate in a state which is one of the Republican Party's strongholds.

In 2020, Republican Ben Sasse won Nebraska's Senate seat by 40 points, winning every county, while Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points over President Joe Biden, winning 91 out of 93 counties.

The Democratic Party is not running a candidate in the state's Senate race.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... be0&ei=27

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As of today, Idaho has issued 109,686 ballots. 63k have been requested from Republican-registered voters, 26.6k from unaffiliated voters, and 26k from registered Democrats.

3255 ballots have been returned.

Nearly 41% of those requested come from Ada County, home to Boise.

https://voteidaho.gov/data-and-dashboar ... e-tracker/

This is yesterdays data.

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Harris Economic Plan Compares Favorably to Trump Proposals

Goldman Sachs:

LONDON (Reuters via U.S. News) - U.S. economic growth would likely get the biggest boost in the coming two years from the Democrats, headed by Kamala Harris, winning the White House and Congress in this November's elections, according to Goldman Sachs.

Under a Republican sweep, or even with a divided government led by Donald Trump, economic output would take a hit next year, mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies, Goldman said in a note late on Tuesday.

Job growth under a Democrat government would also likely be stronger than under the Republicans, Goldman said.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

The race between Harris and Trump is tight, with the Democrat eking out a narrow advantage in national polls and in some battleground states.

KEY QUOTES

"We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5pp in 2025H2 that abates in 2026."

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... arris-win

Moody’s Analytics:

On the biggest economic issues facing the nation - trade, immigration and taxes – Harris’ policies largely mirror Biden’s and their effects on economic growth, jobs and inflation would be similar, according to analyses by Moody’s…

Under a Trump administration, inflation would rise from 3% this year to 3.5% in 2025, compared to 2.4% under Harris, the Moody’s analysis shows. At the end of a Trump tenure the U.S. would have 3.1 million fewer jobs than under Harris and a 4.5% unemployment rate, a half percentage point higher.
…
Trump’s 10% (tariff) levy would boost annual inflation by nearly three-quarters of a percentage point next year and a half point in 2026 as businesses pass their increased costs to consumers, the Moody’s estimate shows.
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Overall, the economy would suffer and there would be 2.1 million fewer U.S. jobs by 2028, Moody's says.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 139488007/

A survey of nearly 40 top economists by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago:

…which presidential nominee has the better economic agenda to get Americans back on track? According to nearly 40 economists from America's top schools surveyed by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business' Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets, it's Harris instead of former President Donald Trump, the GOP presidential nominee.

When asked which nominees' economic policies would be more inflationary—in other words, which would be more likely to cause inflation—70 percent of the economists said Trump's while only 3 percent said Harris'. Meanwhile, 27 percent said there is no material difference in each economic platform's inflationary consequences.

A total of 70 percent also thought Trump's economic platform would produce larger federal budget deficits, while only 11 percent said Harris' platform would and 19 percent said there would be no material difference.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris ... y-1953940

American Action Forum:

Executive Summary

• Former president and presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed a 10 percent tariff on all imports into the United States, which would result in average estimated additional costs per U.S. household of between $1,700 and $2,350 annually.

• The top 10 U.S. import partners, which represent nearly 70 percent of all imports, would be hit with tariffs up to 3 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP); retaliatory tariffs against the United States could amount to $200 billion in the event of a tit-for-tat trade war, with the aggregate impact of tariff hikes reaching up to 5 percent of GDP for the country’s largest trade partner.

• A targeted 60 percent tariff on China, as candidate Trump also proposed, would balloon additional U.S. consumer costs from $300 billion to over $500 billion and on its own increase household costs by $1,950 annually.

Source: https://www.americanactionforum.org/re ... d-allies/

Here is a link to a policy statement issued by the Harris/Walz campaign: https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/up ... unity.pdf

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