2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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PA update - 10/22

Total ballots requested: 1,870,065
Dems 1,079,726 (57.7%)
Reps 561,634 (30.0%)
Other 228,705 (12.3%)

Total ballots returned: 1,051,655 [56.2% returned]
Dems 649,060 (61.7%)
Reps 300,862 (28.6%)
Other 101,733 (9.7%)

Dem return rate: 60.1%
Rep return rate: 53.6%

Dem return rate edge: +6.5% [was +7.8% yesterday]
Dem lead: +348,198 [was +325,649 yesterday]

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Colorado update — 484K
32.3% D
27.5% R
40.3% Other

Dem return rate 13.1%
Rep return rate 12.5%

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

It is close to 19.5 million votes so far!!! Probably 20 before the days out.

[caltrek]

I’m Fed Up with the Obsession Over Polls
by David Corn
October 19, 2024

Introduction:

(Our Land ) Walking my dog. On the Metro. In line at a sandwich shop. People keep coming up and asking me about “the polls.” What do the numbers mean? Should they be worried about the election? If a set of swing state polls is released, the odds are by the end of the day I will have been asked by a friend, a relative, a neighbor, or a stranger, or several, “Did you see that poll in Nevada? Why was there a shift of three points since the last one? How could Pennsylvania be going in a different direction? And North Carolina, really? Do you think that’s accurate?” If they start referencing Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, or any of the other pollster celebs...I want to scream.

Polls, to be hyperbolic about it, have ruined American politics. Okay, a lot has ruined American politics. But polls have certainly made American politics less enjoyable. Many of those who follow politics—and not enough citizens do—have become slaves of polling, overly obsessed with these surveys and palpitating over the slightest changes. I’m not unsympathetic. This election is prompting more anxiety than most. The oft-repeated mantra that the 2024 race could determine whether the United States remains an imperfect democracy or slips toward a more authoritarian form of governance is true. Thus, every iota of data related to the face-off between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appears loaded with relevance and consequence. Still, the hyperfixation on polls is unwarranted and distracts us from other important aspects of this most important election.

Polls don’t matter. Or maybe they do. It depends on your definition of “matters.” By all measurements, this is a close race. What else do you need to know? The candidates are within a few points of each other in the national polls and the swing state polls. But the difference is usually within the reported margin of error. That means the poll that has just caused you heartburn may not have any value in terms of telling us what will happen on Election Day.

Othe points made in this essay:

1) The margin of error in polls may be greater than stated.

2) Focus on polling results is often at the expense of paying attention to policy proclamations and analysis.

Read more here: https://link.motherjones.com/public/37136920

caltrek’s comment: I find myself agreeing with every major point made in the article and yet still obsessed with monitoring poll results. Partly, it is to try and figure out if there are factors that can be observed that distort poll results. Partly, it is just the futurist urge to try and predict the future.

[firestar464]

It's just entertaining to see how the map will turn out LOL

[caltrek]

Speaking of polling and polling methods:

https://theconversation.com/how-pollste ... ne-240283

[firestar464]

Harris vs. Trump — and what’s at stake for the world

The document is a transcript of a TED Talk discussion between Helen Walters, the head of media and curation at TED, and Ian Bremmer, a geopolitical analyst and founder of Eurasia Group. They discuss the political landscape in the United States and global foreign policy issues, particularly focusing on the 2024 U.S. election. Here’s a detailed breakdown:

Key Topics Discussed:
1. U.S. Election Dynamics:
- Background: Bremmer emphasizes that the U.S. election is crucial for America and the global stage. A common theme across recent global elections is voter dissatisfaction with incumbents, often linked to economic issues like high inflation, migration, and geopolitical challenges.
- U.S. Uniqueness: The U.S. has a heightened level of political division and disinformation compared to other democracies. The potential for not accepting the election outcome is notable, with concerns about allegations of rigged elections.

2. Foreign Policy Differences:
- Biden vs. Trump vs. Harris: Bremmer outlines how the foreign policy approaches differ:
- Biden: Based on his long experience, Biden has a very centralized decision-making style. He often makes decisions himself and expects execution from the cabinet.
- Harris: Would rely more on a traditional cabinet, using a collaborative style and holding regular meetings to make policy decisions.
- Trump: His decision-making would be more instinctive and less reliant on advisors, leading to a less predictable foreign policy, with a few key individuals having significant influence.

3. Middle East and Israel-Palestine:
- The Middle East remains a critical and volatile region, with ongoing conflicts influencing global politics.
- Bremmer suggests that Harris would aim for humanitarian support and work with allies, while Trump might back more aggressive military actions, such as striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. This issue marks one of the biggest potential divides between Harris and Trump.

4. Russia-Ukraine Conflict:
- Bremmer explains that both Harris and Trump would aim to end the war in Ukraine but through different methods. Trump might push for a ceasefire with a strong "or else" message, potentially withdrawing support from Ukraine if they don’t comply. Harris, on the other hand, would coordinate closely with European allies and demand NATO membership for Ukraine in exchange for freezing the conflict.

5. Climate Change:
- The conversation touches on climate change, emphasizing the need for decisive action. Harris is likely to push for greener policies, whereas Trump would favor fossil fuels. However, the U.S. energy strategy is expected to be "all of the above," including renewables and traditional energy sources.

6. Immigration:
- There is a convergence between Harris and Trump regarding tougher immigration policies, despite differing rhetoric. Trump’s stance is more hardline and nativist, while Harris’s policies might continue the stricter measures seen under the Biden administration.

7. Disinformation and Misinformation:
- A significant concern is the impact of misinformation on elections and democracy. Bremmer highlights the role of algorithms driven by profit motives rather than accuracy, advocating for regulation to address the societal costs of disinformation.

8. Post-Election Violence:
- Bremmer expresses concerns about potential unrest after the election. He points to previous assassination attempts on Trump and hints at a potentially volatile reaction from his supporters if they perceive the election as unjust.

Conclusion:
The talk ends with Walters encouraging everyone to vote and expressing her excitement for participating in the election as a new U.S. citizen. Bremmer's insights highlight the complex and sometimes contradictory nature of global and domestic politics, especially in the context of the U.S.'s influence on the world stage.

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Seriously, I highly doubt that Harris is going to diverge much from Biden on Ukraine, thankfully. Bremmer's plan would leave 1/5 of Ukraine to be genocided by Russia (also this would cripple Ukraine's industrial capacity). Territorial concessions also remain extremely unpopular in Ukraine, so if Zelensky does that, he's basically politically cooked. (Hell, it's even been speculated that a coup would happen if he did that.) It's also worth noting that Hungary is probably going to screw around with the proposed ceasefire-for-NATO deal

[firestar464]

Harris, Cheney work to sway undecided voters, GOP women in 3 battleground states

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1sEEki

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This isn't good. Trump is looking like he'll win Nevada. This hasn't been by a repubican since 2004. A collapse of the hispanic vote.

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[wjfox]

[wjfox]

LegalEagle: The Most Important Election Of Our Lifetimes