2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[spryfusion]

.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi is safe Harris.
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be likely to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats.

[spryfusion]

.

[wjfox]

My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi is safe Harris.
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be likely to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats.

Based on what you've said here, the electoral college would be:

Democrats 275
Republicans 263

Even without Nebraska, Harris would still reach 270.

Or am I wrong?

Anyway, it's surely too early to be making such firm conclusions.

[weatheriscool]

pretty much. It is fun watching and studying the patterns and information. I do seriously feel down about the sunbelt....

[wjfox]

The Philadelphia Inquirer has just endorsed Kamala Harris for president:

"There has never been a more important presidential election in our lifetime. The road to the White House may well run through Pennsylvania and every vote matters."

[firestar464]

Republicans appeal a Georgia judge’s ruling that invalidates seven election rules

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1ssOqU

Georgia Supreme Court rejects Republican attempt to quickly reinstate invalidated election rules

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ge ... r-AA1sJJY5

[firestar464]

Georgia citizenship audit finds few noncitizens on voter rolls

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ge ... r-AA1sNIPd

[firestar464]

NYT- How Trump Could Bankrupt Social Security

https://archive.ph/v4p8s

[weatheriscool]

NYT- How Trump Could Bankrupt Social Security

https://archive.ph/v4p8s

If Trump wins and gets what he wants on the courts he'll probably abolish it. Trump is very dangerous for the rights of the poor and disabled.

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

Palestinians in Gaza warm to Kamala Harris, prefer 'anyone over Trump'

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... over-trump

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

A new Bloomberg poll on the economy:

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi is safe Harris.
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be likely to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats.

Based on what you've said here, the electoral college would be:

Democrats 275
Republicans 263

Even without Nebraska, Harris would still reach 270.

Or am I wrong?

Anyway, it's surely too early to be making such firm conclusions.

Most predictions of a 270 electoral college vote for Harris include one vote from Nebraska going for Harris. Nebraska is one of two states that awards 2 electors statewide and then one elector independently for each congressional district. The 270 total assumes one vote from Nebraska going for Harris and one vote in Maine going for Trump. The vote from Maine would come from that state's northern congressional district. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that award on this basis. All other states are winner take all.

It looks like weatheriscool make a couple of simplifying assumptions which may prove valid. One is that all Republicans will go for Trump while all Democrats will go for Harris. Harris, with the help of folks like Liz Cheney, is actually making a play for some Republicans. If successful, Republicans could actually turn out in greater numbers while Harris could still win based on those Republican for Harris votes.

Another simplifying assumption is that independents - those not registered as either Democrats or Republicans, will vote in proportion to the split between Republicans and Democrats in any given state. If they break in large numbers in one direction or another instead of proportionately, they could also sway the election results despite a greater turn out in numbers by the losing party.

So, it is too early to make firm conclusions, but trends may very well be pointing in the direction weatheriscool is saying. We will know when those votes that have been cast are actually counted.

[weatheriscool]

[spryfusion]

.

[wjfox]

uggh

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Donald Trump joined on Michigan stage by Arab and Muslim leaders

2h ago
19.12 BST

At his rally in Novi, Donald Trump was joined on stage by leaders of the state’s Arab and Muslim communities.

“We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace. He promises peace, not war. We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine,” one member of the coalition said. “We support Donald J Trump for his commitment to promoting family values and protected our children well-being, especially when it comes to curriculums and schools.”

Speaking to Michigan’s large Muslim community, which has expressed marked dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, Trump decried Harris for campaigning alongside former Republican senator Liz Cheney.

“Kamala is campaigning with Muslim-hating warmonger Liz Cheney, who wants to invade practically every Muslim country on the planet,” Trump said, implying that the October 7 attack in Israel wouldn’t have happened if he’d been president.

Adding that he’d met with a coalition of local imams earlier in the day, Trump said that his campaign is “winning overwhelming support from the Muslim and Arab voters here in Michigan”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... 42be7573ed