2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

My current thinking is 228 for the gop in the house and 51 seats in the senate for the Gop.

The democratics were too soft on crime and policies led to inflation that hurt people. Now it is time to pay.

[Xyls]

House 228 if GOP has a VERY good evening which is possible. The GOP won't be retaking the Senate though, might even lose a seat or two.

[caltrek]

The Senate could go either way, the polls are that tight. Republicans will probably take the House.

The Democrats are too soft on crime?

It is the Republicans who have embraced a leader that instigated a riot, probably cheated on his taxes, stole government documents, lied about the net worth of his property to secure business loans, pardoned all sorts of loyalists who did things such as indulge in acting as agents of foreign powers without registering as such, engages in rhetoric that encourages nut cases to break into homes and attack 80+ year old men with hammers or threaten lawmakers with bodily harm.

Yes, the anger is about a different sort of crime, one which the Republicans have absolutely no answer except tough rhetoric that implies a trashing of civil liberties and the institution of a police state. The "toughness" they want is the toughness of fascism. Never mind that could lead us to civil war.

Inflation, caused in part by supply chain issues related to Covid, the war in the Ukraine, and rampant profiteering, is another issue for which Republicans have no solution. Unless you think it is a good idea to gut social security benefits, slash or destroy Medicare, and jack up unemployment rates.

Mind you, it is perception that counts. Perceptions molded in part by wing nuts on Twitter, Fox news, Breitbart News, etc. Perceptions that at their core are based on lies and deception. Sadly, that seems to be the way to power these days.

[caltrek]

Everything Joe Biden and the Democrats Have Done: Why the Midterms Should be a Cakewalk
by Matt Robison
November 3, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) So here, in one place, is a concise summary of that record under Biden and the Democrats in Congress – what would have been a slam dunk closing argument not that long ago. (Please note, this is all very real, and very full of proof: sources include reports from outlets like the Columbus Dispatch and the AP, PolitiFact and the White House:

• Jobs: Achieved the greatest single year of job creation in American history, more than 6 million in 2021, a decrease of 16 million receiving unemployment benefits, and the biggest drop in the unemployment rate in history.

• Manufacturing jobs: The biggest yearly increase in US manufacturing jobs in nearly 30 years. Democrats’ new incentives for key industries have already led to announcements of thousands of new manufacturing jobs.

• Healthcare: Democrats’ new tax credits drove a record 14.5 million Americans signing up through the ACA, including 5.8 million new people getting coverage. They forced drug companies to negotiate prices for the elderly and capped costs at $2,000 per year. This will save elders thousands annually.

• Poverty: The Dems’ child tax credit created the largest-ever one-year decrease in childhood poverty in American history, about 3 million kids. Households saying they didn’t have enough to eat dropped by a third.

• Safety: Passed the biggest anti-violence measure in decades, including the Gun Safety bill and strengthening the Violence Against Women Act.

• Supporting police: Democrats passed four bills on supporting both police and crime victims.

Read a more complete list here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/11/every ... ats-done/

[caltrek]

Fascism in a Nutshell: Is America Ready to Trade Democracy for Cheap Gas?
by Chauncey DeVega
November 3, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) This recent New York Times headline offers a perfect prospective epitaph for America's ailing democracy and its potential imminent demise: "Voters See Democracy in Peril, but Saving It Isn't a Priority."

The details are grim. Voters "overwhelmingly believe American democracy is under threat, but seem remarkably apathetic about that danger," with relatively few calling it "the nation's most pressing problem," according to a new poll conducted for the Times by Siena College. More than one-third of independent voters in the poll "said they were open to supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election," because economic concerns were more urgent. While 71 percent of voters agreed that "democracy was at risk," only 7 percent said that was the country's most important problem.

The Times' analysis conformed to a depressing current of conventional wisdom, concluding that "for many Americans, this year's midterm elections will be largely defined by rising inflation and other economic woes," reflecting a deeply rooted "cynicism" about government. This particular portrait reinforces what political scientists and other experts have long known about voting and other political behavior in this country.

Most Americans are relatively unsophisticated in their understanding of politics and public policy, and tend to be disengaged on issues beyond the few that appear to be of immediate concern to them, their families or their communities, barring a national emergency or crisis that demands collective attention. But even that kind of increased salience does not necessarily translate into an accurate or factual understanding of the policies in question. For example, the COVID pandemic certainly became a major national issue, but also fueled widespread disinformation about vaccines and public health measures. The 2020 election transfixed the nation for weeks, but Donald Trump's Big Lie narrative about that election has not faded away.

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/11/gas-facism/

[caltrek]

For those that have been closely following the Senate races, there is not much new in the presentation cited below. For others, this is a good article by which to catch up on the key races.

The Nine Races that Could Decide Control of the Senate
by Liz Zhou
November 3, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox)The fight for control of the Senate is basically a dead heat at this point.

While projections once favored Democrats, Republicans’ path to the majority appears to be getting more and more plausible. With less than a week left before Election Day, FiveThirtyEight’s model gives both Democrats and Republicans a roughly 50-50 chance of winning the upper chamber.

Of the 35 Senate seats that are up this cycle, nine are truly in play according to Cook Political Report, a group that conducts nonpartisan political analysis. These include Republican-held swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Democrat-held battlegrounds like Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona — all of which could potentially change hands this fall.

Here’s a look (see link provided below) at the dynamics in these key races, and a preview of what each of them could say about the future of the respective parties, and Senate control.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2022/9/25/23356692 ... wisconsin

[caltrek]

The GOP Made Gains Among Latino voters in 2020 But Democrats Remain the Party of Choice for Upcoming Midterms
by Dr. Mary Lehman Held
November 3, 2022

Introduction:

(The Conversation) As the second largest U.S. demographic group, Latinos are a significant political force that could determine the elections in the key midterm battleground states of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

Not surprisingly, the anticipated impact of Latino voters has forced Democrats and Republicans to develop messages that not only resonate but also drive turnout on Election Day.

That is easier said than done.

Latino voters represent a diverse group of countries of origin, native languages, cultural values, education and personal characteristics. As with any demographic group, voting patterns are informed by individual experiences.

One thing is clear. Latino voters are turning out in record numbers.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/the-gop-ma ... ms-192679

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Warnock (D) 49%
Walker (R) 45%

[weatheriscool]

Kelly (D) 48%
Masters (R) 48%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizo ... dead-heat/

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
AZ Gov: 49-48 Hobbs

GA Sen: 48-48
GA Gov: 53-45 Kemp

PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman
PA Gov: 54-40 Shapiro

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the ... georgia-2/

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the ... ylvania-2/

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the ... arizona-2/

[weatheriscool]

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[caltrek]

NAACP Sues Over Pennsylvania Ballot Issue
by Russ Choma
November 5, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) An already messy battle in Pennsylvania over mail-in ballots stepped up on Friday, with the NAACP and an alliance of other voting rights group filing a lawsuit to insist certain votes should be counted. The issue at hand is whether a state law says that mail-in votes can be counted if they have a valid date written on the outside of the envelope they arrive in—regardless of whether they arrive on time.

Last week, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court deadlocked over whether the law violated voting protections in the Civil Rights Act, but they did vote to set aside the mail-in ballots that arrive without the proper date. That decision arose from a lawsuit filed by the Republican National Commission seeking to limit the mail-in ballots that could be counted.

The NAACP’s lawsuit says the decision to set aside and possibly not count those ballots that lack the correct date means that potentially thousands of votes won’t be counted over what the lawsuit describes as “a meaningless technicality” and a “trivial paperwork error.” The presence of the correct date on the outside of the envelope a ballot arrives in has nothing to do with the validity of the vote inside, the lawsuit argues.

Pennsylvania law says that mail-in ballots can be sent at any point, and the local county board of elections is responsible for deciding whether they arrive on time. The board then stamps eligible ballots with a date indicating it was timely—means that “the presence or absence of a handwritten date on the envelope is utterly immaterial to determining whether the ballot was timely received, much less to assessing a voter’s qualifications.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ot-issue/

[caltrek]

Liz Cheney Just Endorsed Another Democrat
by Russ Choma
November 6, 2022

Entire Article Less Photograph:

(Mother Jones) Rep. Liz Cheney used to be one of the standard-bearers of the Republican party—she’s literally the heir to one of the most prominent Republicans in modern history. But since she broke with former president Donald Trump, she’s strayed far from the party and is now not just campaigning against pro-Trump Republicans, she’s endorsing Democrats. After endorsing Michigan Democrat Elissa Slotkin, Cheney says she is now endorsing Virginia Democrat Abigail Spanberger.

Spanberger is one of the most moderate Democrats, having criticized President Joe Biden for trying to enact too sweeping of an agenda and called for Nancy Pelosi to step down. She’s running for reelection in what was once one of the most conservative districts—it was considered a safe seat for former Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, but he lost it to right-wing challenger Dave Brat in 2014. Spanberger took the seat in 2018 but is in a close race with Republican Yesli Vega, who was endorsed by Donald Trump last week.

Spanberger has often clashed with Democratic House leadership, and Vega has played down her Trump endorsement, with both candidates clearly trying to appeal to a moderate middle. Cheney told the Washington Post she was endorsing Spanberger because Vega was an election denier.
“We don’t agree on every policy, but I am absolutely certain that Abigail is dedicated to serving this country and her constituents and defending our Constitution,” Cheney said in a statement the Post.

Cheney lost the Republican primary to keep her seat representing Wyoming earlier this summer, but is still a fundraising behemoth, with millions of dollars in her PAC, which she can use to support other candidates or eventually organize another run for herself, possibly for president. Cheney has also maintained a high profile as the highest-ranking Republican on the House’s Jan. 6 Committee.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... democrat/

caltrek's comment: It is striking how many old-time conservative Republicans are pursuing a similar line. On MSNBC recently both Chris Matthews and Joe Scarborough made passionate condemnations of the Republican party under Donald Trump. George Wills has also in recent years urged viewers to vote for Democrats over Trump dominated Republican candidates. I fear that this will have little effect on voters' choices as Trump continues to hold a cult like loyalty of his followers.

[caltrek]

On Crime, Fetterman and Oz Aren’t as Polar Opposite as You Might Think
by Samantha Michaels
November 5, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) If there’s one thing Dr. Mehmet Oz wants you to believe, it’s that his opponent Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is soft on crime.
Oz, a celebrity talk-show host turned Republican politician, has hit this point over and over again as he attempts to close the gap in an increasingly tight race in Pennsylvania that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans take control of the Senate next year. In September, he put up a billboard in the town where Fetterman formerly worked as mayor, depicting images of toilet paper (“soft on bottoms”) and an adorable puppy (“soft on skin”) alongside Fetterman (“soft on crime”). “John Fetterman wants ruthless killers, muggers, and rapists back on our streets, and he wants them back now,” one ad for Oz, underwritten by the conservative group MAGA Inc, warned. From mid-August to mid-September alone, Republicans spent upwards of $10 million on TV spots depicting Fetterman as a far-left radical who allowed crime to spiral under his watch, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. “John Fetterman is one of the most dangerous Democrats,” Donald Trump said at a recent rally. “One of the most fringe, far-left freak shows.”

But though Fetterman may not seem like a typical political candidate, with his tattooed arms and tendency to wear hoodies and shorts to campaign events, he’s far from lackadaisical about crime, and he’s not as leftist on questions of policing and public safety as Republicans have made him out to be. In fact, though he and Oz obviously differ a great deal in their beliefs, their stances on these issues have more in common than you might expect. The ads against Fetterman “are misleading,” says David Harris, a law professor at the University of Pittsburgh. “John is no radical.”

If stopping crime has only recently become a talking point for Oz, who jumped into the Senate race after many years of hosting The Dr. Oz Show, it’s long been a top priority for Fetterman: It was a primary reason why he became a politician in the first place.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... midterms/

[weatheriscool]