Russia Watch Thread

[caltrek]

JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs Make Russia Exit
by Tom Burroughes
March 14, 2022

https://www.wealthbriefing.com/html/art ... ?id=193956

Introduction:

(Wealth Briefing) Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are pulling out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

“Goldman Sachs is winding down its business in Russia in compliance with regulatory and licensing requirements. We are focused on supporting our clients across the globe in managing or closing out pre-existing obligations in the market and ensuring the wellbeing of our people,” the US-listed group told this news service in a statement.

Goldman Sachs has a credit exposure to Russia of $650 million. Any losses would be "immaterial," according to a source familiar with the situation, Reuters reported.

A spokesperson for JP Morgan told FWR: "In compliance with directives by governments around the world, we have been actively unwinding Russian business and have not been pursuing any new business in Russia. Current activities are limited, including helping global clients address and close out pre-existing obligations; managing their Russia-related risk; acting as a custodian to our clients; and taking care of our employees."

The firm previously announced its commitment of up to $5 million to support humanitarian relief efforts including an employee contribution match. "Our commitment will support organisations to provide emergency food, housing and medical services to those in need," the bank added.

[weatheriscool]

Putin's invasion of Ukraine will knock the Russian economy back by 30 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/putins- ... years.html

WASHINGTON — Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war on Ukraine and the resulting global response will set Russia’s economy back by at least 30 years — close to old Soviet Union times — and lower its standard of living for at least the next five years, according to economists, investors and diplomats.

The sweeping Western sanctions are designed to inflict maximum pain on Russia’s economy by expelling it from global markets and freezing assets around the world. From the moment they took effect three weeks ago, the sanctions have opened a new chapter in the country’s economic history.

Russia’s financial system and currency are collapsing on multiple fronts, forcing the Kremlin to close the stock market and artificially prop up the ruble inside its borders.

Practically overnight, the country’s 40-year effort to build a prosperous market-based economy that began under former leader Mikhail Gorbachev has failed, one more casualty in President Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.

[caltrek]

In its Quest to Censor War Reporting, the Russian Government has Dismantled all Semblance of Press Freedom
by Trevor Timm
March 15, 2022

https://freedom.press/news/in-its-quest ... s-freedom/

Introduction:

(Freedom of the Press Foundation) Russia has long been a dangerous place for independent journalists. But in the past week, President Vladimir Putin’s government has swiftly stamped out any remaining semblance of press freedom, in an attempt to prevent its populace from learning the truth about its brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Almost immediately after tanks started rolling across the Ukrainian border, Russian government authorities reportedly started issuing ominous edicts to newspapers to stop using certain words and phrases in their reporting. Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov, who runs the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, told The New Yorker on Feb. 28, “We received an order to ban the use of the words ‘war,’ ‘occupation,’ ‘invasion.’” He continued, “However, we continue to call war war. We are waiting for the consequences.” Many other publications received similar messages.

Putin quickly made these authoritarian “warnings” official policy. As the Washington Post reported, the Russian Parliament passed a new law “banning what it considers ‘fake’ news about the military, including any rhetoric that calls the invasion of Ukraine an “invasion” — the preferred language is “special military operation” — with a potential 15-year prison sentence.”

According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, only four days after the invasion began, five journalists were already facing charges “and dozens more were detained across Russia following their coverage of anti-war protests.” An independent newspaper, which put anti-war messages (rough translation: “the madness must be stopped!”) on its front page, found its offices raided by government authorities.

On March 1, two television networks which aired criticism of the invasion were reportedly taken off the air. By March 3, journalists from Dozhd, what CNN described as “the last remaining independent news network in Russia” fled the country over fears of their own safety. "After the blocking of Dozhd's website, Dozhd's social media accounts, and the threat against some employees, it is obvious that the personal safety of some of us is at risk," said Dozhd’s chief.

caltrek's comment: I feel for Phoenix Ru. For all of his skepticism concerning the "Western Press", I wonder how comfortable he feels with this development.

[wjfox]

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

First Published: 3:07 PM PDT, March 16, 2022

Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian state TV today to denounce Russians who opposed his war with Ukraine as “scum” and “traitors.”

But behind the scenes, the dictator is increasingly paranoid and fears that someone in his inner circle will poison him, a new report says.

Daily Beast contributing editor Craig Copetas says he’s been told that Putin has people tasting his food before he eats it and that last month, he replaced his entire personal staff of 1,000 people.

“Laundresses, secretaries, cooks — to a whole new group of people. The assessment from the intelligence community is that he's scared,” Copetas said.

Copetas says that the preferred method of assassination in Russia is poison.

https://www.insideedition.com/fearing-p ... taff-73847

[funkervogt]

Here's the full speech that Putin gave yesterday (March 16).

[raklian]

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

I suppose he is now cooking meals for himself.

[funkervogt]

Fearing Poisoning, Vladimir Putin Replaces 1,000 of His Personal Staff

I suppose he is now cooking meals for himself.

"More ramen noodles, anyone?"

[wjfox]

Or a nice cup of polonium tea.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

U.S. targets Abramovich plane, 99 others over Russia export violations
Source: reuters.com

The U.S. Commerce Department on Friday moved to effectively ground 100 airplanes that have recently flown to Russia and are believed to violate U.S. export controls, including a plane used by Russian businessman Roman Abramovich.

The list includes 99 Boeing airplanes operated by Russian passenger and cargo carriers including Aeroflot, AirBridge Cargo, Utair, Nordwind, Azur Air and Aviastar-TU -- as well as Abramovich's Gulfstream G650 -- and could further hinder Russian efforts to continue some international flights.

....

The Commerce Department warned companies and other entities around the world that any refueling, maintenance, repair, or spare parts or services violate U.S. export controls and subject companies to U.S. enforcement actions that could include "substantial jail time, fines, loss of export privileges, or other restrictions," the department said.

The department said in a statement the action means "international flights from Russia on these aircraft are effectively grounded." Officials told Reuters said it could also prevent domestic Russia flights because of U.S. enforcement actions that could target companies servicing planes in Russia.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive ... 022-03-18/

[weatheriscool]

France freezes Russian Central Bank's assets
Source: uawire.org

... French authorities have frozen 22 billion euros of the Russian Central Bank, as well as the accounts and real estate of individuals who fell under the sanctions, said on the air of the radio station RTL the French Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire.

According to him, real estate belonging to about 30 Russian oligarchs with a total value of half a billion euros has been seized.

Earlier, the Dutch authorities froze Russian assets worth more than 200 million euros (about $ 220 million) due to sanctions. .....

Read more: https://www.uawire.org/france-freezes-r ... k-s-assets

[caltrek]

I just thought that I would pass along this observation:

The Ex-Kremlin Deputy Who Openly Opposed the War in a Mother Jones Exclusive Has Been Forced to Resign
by Daniel King
March 18, 2022

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... utins-war/

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) The former top Russian official who broke ranks with Kremlin leaders by condemning his country’s invasion of Ukraine in a recent Mother Jones interview has been forced out as chair of a prominent foundation for innovation and technology. The sudden resignation by Arkady Dvorkovich from the Skolkovo Foundation, announced today, follows demands for his “immediate dismissal in disgrace” by Russia’s Secretary of the General Council Andrei Turchak, who accused him of “national betrayal” for publicly rebuking the war.

Dvorkovich, who is president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), had told me, “Wars are the worst things one might face in life…My thoughts are with Ukrainian civilians.” Within a day of our interview’s publication, senior party officials called for his ouster. “Do you think you can hide behind a chessboard…” asked the head of Russia’s space program, ex-NATO ambassador, and hard-line Putin ally Dmitry Rogozin, who is a former deputy prime minister of defense.

Dvorkovich is one of the very few, or only, recent top Kremlin officials to openly oppose the war: “Wars do not just kill priceless lives. Wars kill hopes and aspirations, freeze or destroy relationships and connections,” he had told me from Russia, where he said he was “safe with my family and friends.”

Turchak claimed Dvorkovich “took the side of the enemy” by criticizing the war. “He has made his choice,” Turchak said. “This is nothing but the very national betrayal, the behavior of the fifth column, which the president spoke about today.”

Vladimir Putin on Wednesday delivered a televised warning to anyone opposing his invasion of Ukraine, calling antiwar Russians “bastards and traitors” to be purged. His mandate has materialized. Rogozin had called Dvorkovich a “son of a bitch” for speaking out in Mother Jones, and Turchak said the “self-cleansing of society” must include Dvorkovich’s sacking as chair of the Skolkovo Foundation, the prestigious center that develops and commercializes advanced technologies.

[Maximus]

Russian bond yields spike as trading resumes after month-long pause

Some Russian assets returned to trading on Monday after almost a month on the sidelines, with bidding on OFZ government bonds open for limited hours on the Moscow Exchange.

The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that trading in federal loan bonds would resume on a discrete auction basis between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. Moscow time on Monday, and in the usual format between 1 p.m. and 5 p.m (10 a.m. and 2 p.m. GMT). Trading in such instruments had been halted for three weeks.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year OFZ ruble treasury bonds spiked to 19.7% in early pre-market trade, an all-time high, but had settled to around 14% by the end of the trading session.

The Russian stock market has been closed since Feb. 25 as stocks plummeted in light of the invasion and subsequent barrage of Western economic sanctions. The CBR has yet to confirm when equity trading can resume, as a backlog of transactions will need to be cleared. However, a number of additional financial market operations will be allowed to resume over the next two weeks

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/russian ... pause.html

[wjfox]

Alexei Navalny faces 13 more years in jail after court finds him guilty of fraud

Tue 22 Mar 2022 09.36 GMT

Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has been found guilty of large-scale fraud and contempt by a Russian court.

The move on Tuesday means that Navalny, President Vladimir Putin’s most prominent critic, is likely to face a substantial extension to his jail sentence.

He is already serving a two-and-a-half year sentence at a prison camp east of Moscow for parole violations related to charges he says were fabricated to thwart his political ambitions.

A further 13 years could now be added due to the latest criminal case against him, which he has also dismissed as politically motivated.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... jail-fraud

[weatheriscool]

Putin critic Navalny found guilty of fraud by Russian court
Source: The Hill

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny on Tuesday was found guilty of fraud by a Russian court.

In a case that Navalny says is politically motivated, the Russian government could potentially give the prominent Kremlin critic another 13 years in prison on top of the 30-month sentence he received in 2021, Reuters reported.

Prosecutors have recommended Navalny to go to a maximum-security penal colony.

He was found guilty on charges of fraud and contempt of court. The government accused him of embezzling funds for himself and his organization.

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... -in-russia

[wjfox]

EU signs US gas deal to curb reliance on Russia

22 minutes ago

The US and the EU have announced a major deal on liquified natural gas, in an attempt to reduce Europe's reliance on Russian energy.

The agreement will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic metres of the fuel - known as LNG - by the end of the year.

[...]

The longer-term aim is to ensure, until at least 2030, about 50 billion cubic metres per year of US gas, up from last year's 22 billion cubic metres.

[...]

President von der Leyen said: "We want, as Europeans, to diversify away from Russia towards suppliers that we trust that are friends and that are reliable."

She pointed out that the target 50 billion cubic metres per year "is replacing one-third already of the Russian gas going to Europe today. So we are right on track now to diversify away from Russian gas."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60871601

[Xyls]

Wat

[caltrek]

This Troubled Silence—In Russia We Don’t Talk About War or Politics
by an author who is kept anonymous to protect him or her from potential reprisals
March 23, 2020

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... -politics/

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Things are quiet here in St. Petersburg. Weirdly, horrendously, quiet. Like there isn’t a war on at all.

The city is home to military and navy academies. Home to the massive state-owned energy corporation Gazprom, home to the Constitutional Court. It’s the old imperial capital and Putin’s hometown. It is quite capable of patriotic jingoism. But things are quiet.

On February 24, Russian military forces began shelling Ukrainian cities. The following week, billboards appeared around the city with the letter “Z” and the phrase “We do not forsake our own!” This letter “Z” then began to appear on riot police helmets and Rosgvardia cars. I’ve seen metro workers wear it tacked to their uniforms. Asked whether they are required to do so, some look up defiantly and say, “Unfortunately, yes.” I rarely, however, see this letter “Z” on private cars around town.
…
On February 24, when Russian armored vehicles rolled into Ukraine, they were marked with large white letters, either Z or V: marks to distinguish forces and avoid friendly fire. The most reasonable explanation for these markings is that Z stands for Zapad or West, V for Vostok, or the East, which signifies the two directions from which the vehicles entered Ukraine. But why were they written in the Latin alphabet? And why has the Z become the official symbol of this “special military operation” that may not legally be called a war? The Russian Ministry of Defense eschews easy answers. On March 2, it explained to its Instagram followers that “Z signifies Za Pobedu!” On March 15, the governor of St. Petersburg was formally briefed with this same explanation.

Official explanations are asinine. The symbols are empty, disconnected from any reasonable semantic content. But this irrationality is not without reason. The helmets of the riot cops beating Russian anti-war protesters bear the same senseless mark as that which adorns armored vehicles decimating Ukrainian cities and towns. The Russian state has marked this violence as two fronts of one war.

The article goes on to discuss that peculiar form of denialism that is now prevalent in Russia, along with some apparently genuine disgust felt by others toward Putin and the war.

[caltrek]

The article linked below starts off with a discussion of the U.S. pledge to take in 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. In then goes on to make some brief points about Russia that I have cited below.

U.S. to Step Up Sanctions on Russia
by Cain Burdeau
Maech 24, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/us-to-ta ... on-russia/

Extract:

(Courthouse News) “Look, if you’re Putin and you think that Europe is going to crack in a month or six weeks or two months – they can take anything for another month,” Biden said about Russia’s ability to withstand sanctions. “We have to stay fully, totally, thoroughly united.”

He said sanctions were not going to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from his invasion of Ukraine, but that they must be seen as “increasing the pain.”
...
Despite suffering major setbacks and casualties, Russia possesses a far superior army than Ukraine’s and Putin is enjoying a lot of public support for the war with polls indicating that more than 70% of Russians are backing him.

Still, if the Ukraine war carries on for months with high Russian casualties Putin’s hold on power could be at risk. Western experts talk about Russia getting bogged down in the kind of war the Red Army fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s, a defeat that played a role in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

“Many Russian tsars were killed,” said Andrei Kozyrev, a former Russian foreign minister under President Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, told the Times newspaper recently. “Many were dismissed one way or the other. Even in the Soviet Union, there were ways; Stalin was said to have been poisoned, Khrushchev was just escorted out of the Kremlin. With Putin, I very much expect there to be resistance growing and discontent growing that will be resolved one way or another. I don’t know which way but Russian history is full of unexpected outcomes.”