Economic and jobs news thread

[firestar464]

For a moment I thought this was murica and was like "ah shit"

[weatheriscool]

GDP shows U.S. economy grew just 1.3% in the first quarter as consumer spending slowed

Published: May 30, 2024 at 8:38 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash

Economy seen rebounding in second quarter

Story developing. Stay tuned for updates here

The numbers: The U.S. economy grew at a slower 1.3% annual pace in the first three months of the year, revised government figures show, largely because of softer consumer spending.

The increase in gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy was the smallest in almost two years....

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-s ... d-3567a587

[weatheriscool]

The Fed's preferred inflation measure rose 0.2% in April, as expected

Inflation rose about as expected in April, with markets on edge over when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased just 0.2% for the period, in line with the Dow Jones estimate.

On annual basis, core PCE was up 2.8%, or 0.1 percentage point higher than the estimate.

Including the volatile food and energy category, PCE inflation was at 2.7% on an annual basis and 0.3% from a month ago. Those numbers were in line with forecasts.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/31/pce-inf ... april.html

[caltrek]

The One Percent Move Report for June 5, 2024

Introduction:

(Morgan Stanley)

What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 increased 1.2% Wednesday to end the day at 5,354.03, having gained 12.2% thus far in 2024.

• Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Information Technology (+2.7%) and Communication Services (+1.5%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Consumer Staples (-0.2%) and Utilities (-0.6%) underperformed.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 4bp to 4.28%; WTI crude oil increased to $74.13 per barrel; and gold increased +1.1% to $2,353.69 per ounce.

Why Did This Move Happen?

• The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high, as softer payroll data supported the narrative of a loosening labor market. Meanwhile, the ISM Services survey pointed to stronger activity and cooling inflation. This combination boosted hopes for a soft landing and increased expectations for 2024 Fed cuts. Megacap Technology and Communication Services paced the day's gains, owing to enthusiasm on AI.

• The May ADP Employment Change came in below expectations at 152,000, bringing payroll increases to the lowest level since January. Conversely, May ISM Services outperformed expectations with a return to expansionary territory and a print of 53.8, 2.8 higher than consensus.

Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... 20240605

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

Cue Trump campaign promoting new world order conspiracies to discredit this

[weatheriscool]

Consumer prices unchanged in May and up 3.3% from a year ago

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Jun 12 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 11 Min Ago

The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

CPI, a broad inflation gauge that measures a basket of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, held flat on the month though it increased 3.3% from a year ago, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.



Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/cpi-rep ... ation.html

[wjfox]

WTF...

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Trump floats eliminating U.S. income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports

Published Thu, Jun 13 2024 11:01 AM EDT
Updated Moments Ago

Donald Trump on Thursday brought up the idea of imposing an “all tariff policy” that would ultimately enable the U.S. to get rid of the income tax, sources in a private meeting with the Republican presidential candidate told CNBC.

Trump, in the meeting with GOP lawmakers at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C., also talked about using tariffs to leverage negotiating power over bad actors, according to another source in the room.

The remarks show Trump, who championed tariffs as a foreign policy multi-tool during his first term in office, is considering a drastically more protectionist trade agenda if he defeats President Joe Biden in November.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/trump-a ... e-tax.html

[Powers]

WTF...

-----

Trump floats eliminating U.S. income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports

Published Thu, Jun 13 2024 11:01 AM EDT
Updated Moments Ago

Donald Trump on Thursday brought up the idea of imposing an “all tariff policy” that would ultimately enable the U.S. to get rid of the income tax, sources in a private meeting with the Republican presidential candidate told CNBC.

Trump, in the meeting with GOP lawmakers at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C., also talked about using tariffs to leverage negotiating power over bad actors, according to another source in the room.

The remarks show Trump, who championed tariffs as a foreign policy multi-tool during his first term in office, is considering a drastically more protectionist trade agenda if he defeats President Joe Biden in November.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/trump-a ... e-tax.html

No way he (or almost anyone) can achieve that, can he?
I mean for all sectors.

[weatheriscool]

US Manufacturing Production Surges in May

Source: US News and World Report/Reuters

June 18, 2024, at 9:54 a.m.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Production at U.S. factories increased more than expected in May, recouping all the declines in the prior two months, but the momentum is unlikely to be sustained amid higher interest rates and softening demand for goods.

Manufacturing output jumped 0.9% last month following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in April, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory output rebounding 0.3% after a previously reported 0.3% fall in April. Production at factories had declined in March and April. It gained 0.1% year-on-year in May.

Manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy, has been hamstrung by higher borrowing costs. An Institute for Supply Management survey published earlier this month found that "demand remains elusive as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest due to current monetary policy and other conditions. The ISM said "these investments include supplier order commitments, inventory building and capital expenditures."

Spending on goods declined in first quarter for the first time in 1-1/2 years. The Fed last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since last July. U.S. central bank officials pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, with policymakers projecting only a single quarter-percentage-point reduction for this year.

Read more: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news ... ges-in-may

[weatheriscool]

US jobless claims fall to 238,000 from 10-month high

Source: ABC News/AP

June 20, 2024, 8:38 AM

WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits slipped last week as the U.S. labor market remained resilient. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 238,000 from a 10-month high of 243,000 the week before.

The four-week average of claims, which evens out weekly ups and downs, rose by 5,500 to 232,750, highest since September. Weekly unemployment claims — a proxy for layoffs — remain at low levels by historical standards, a sign that most Americans enjoy unusual job security. Still, after mostly staying below 220,000 this year, weekly claims have moved up recently.

“Layoffs are still low overall suggesting businesses remain reluctant to reduce headcount in large numbers,’’ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “However, there has been a gradual increase in recent weeks that merits watching for signals about a more material weaking in demand for workers going forward.’’

Nearly 1.83 million people were collecting unemployment benefits the week of June 8, up by 15,000 the week before and the seventh straight weekly uptick. The U.S. economy and job market have proven remarkably resilient in the face of high interest rates. Employers are adding a strong average of 248,000 jobs a month this year. Unemployment is still low at 4%.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... -111272953

[firestar464]

People complaining about UBI because "not fair" or whatever

"do you want a world where everybody lives happily and is never lacking anything?"

"hell yeah!"

"do you want to take steps towards that reality?"

"NOOOOOO! NO FAIR! THEY NO WORK FOR IT!!"

[Powers]

"Not with my money".

People complaining about UBI because "not fair" or whatever

"do you want a world where everybody lives happily and is never lacking anything?"

"hell no!"

[weatheriscool]

U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Jul 5 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 13 Min Ago

The U.S. economy again added slightly more jobs than expected in June though the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May, which was cut sharply from the initial estimate of 272,000.



The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. The forecast had been for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4%.

“The job market is bending without yet breaking, which boosts the argument for rate cuts,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “Things are not too hot and not too cold. Goldilocks is here and September is in play.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/05/jobs-re ... -2024.html

[weatheriscool]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/

[firestar464]

More on that by AFP:

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-consumer-i ... 41786.html

[caltrek]

Expectations Spike for a Fed Rate Cut
by Felix Salmon
July 11, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) It now looks like we are going to get a rate cut this quarter after all.

Driving the news: After this morning's very benign inflation report, the CME Fed Funds futures markets spiked to pricing in a 95% probability that the Fed will cut in September, if not this month.

The big picture: At the start of this year, markets were sure there would be at least one rate cut by September, with most market participants expecting five cuts by then.

• But inflation and employment numbers both came in hotter than expected, and it started becoming obvious that many cuts wouldn't be arriving anytime soon.

The bottom line: The doves are back, although the timetable for getting to five rate cuts has been pushed back to at least April, per CME traders.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/rate- ... ons-spike

[caltrek]

One Percent Move Report for July 10, 2024


Introduction:

(Morgan Stanley)

What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 increased 1.0% Wednesday to end the day at 5,633.91, having gained 18.1% thus far in 2024.

• All 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Information Technology (+1.6%) and Materials (+1.3%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Consumer Staples (+0.5%) and Financials (+0.4%) underperformed.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 2bp to 4.28%; WTI crude oil increased to $82.41 per barrel; and gold increased +0.3% to $2,372.12 per ounce.

Why Did This Move Happen?

• The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high Wednesday, surpassing the 5,600 level for the first time and marking its seventh consecutive gain, the longest positive streak since November. Ahead of Friday's kickoff to the second-quarter earnings season, investors pinned hopes on a soft-landing scenario, supported by receding inflationary pressures, potentially less restrictive monetary policy and enthusiasm on artificial intelligence.

• In his second day of Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Powell continued his marginally dovish testimony, acknowledging recent improvements in inflation data. Futures markets imply investor expectations of two 25-bp cuts in 2024, with increasing odds of a potential first cut in September.

Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... -20240710

[caltrek]

The Economy's Big Split: Poor Consumers Feel Slowdown, Rich Ones Don't
by Courtenay Brown
July 15, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) Affluent Americans say the economy is just fine — and they're spending like it is, too. Meanwhile, lower-income consumers are feeling the brunt of a slowdown.

Why it matters: Deteriorating economic sentiment and activity among poorer Americans suggest the economy is at a turning point, even if it doesn't show up in headline data, since higher-income consumers make up a disproportionate share of aggregate spending.

• The share of consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan who volunteered that high prices were eroding their living standards in early July matched a peak first reached two years ago when inflation was at multidecade highs.

What they're saying: "The lower income consumer is in their own personal recession unfortunately," Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at the investment firm Bleakley Financial Group, wrote in a note.

Driving the news: The latest University of Michigan report shows that economic concerns are more prominent among poorer consumers than rich ones.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/15/us-ec ... sentiment

caltrek: One advantage of a Uniform Basic Income is that it could be adjusted to offset inflation experience by the poor. Of course, some would argue that such adjustments would in themselves be inflationary. Still, that sort of inflation would hit those that could more easily cope.

Universal health insurance can also help deal with escalating health care costs.