2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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South Carolina (Emerson Poll): Trump +29, Biden +64

54 Trump
25 Haley
7 DeScentis
5 Christie
3 Vivek
0 Asa

69 Biden
5 Phillips
3 Williamson

Quote
Methodology

The Emerson College Polling South Carolina survey was conducted January 2-3, 2024. The sample of South Carolina voters, n=1,046, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The Republican primary has a sample of n=584, with a credibility interval of +/- 4%. The Democratic primary has a sample size of n=320, with a credibility interval of +/- 5.4%.

Data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and South Carolina voter registration information. Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, SMS-to-web, and a voter list of emails provided by Aristotle, an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.” This survey was funded by Emerson College.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south ... 29-points/
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caltrek
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

Post by caltrek »

Vox recently published an article reviewing arguments for and against removing Trump from the ballot. There are too many points made to extract any subset which would exclude other arguments, so I will just leave a link here:

https://www.vox.com/scotus/2024/1/3/240 ... -anderson
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-Joe Hill
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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A New Survey Shows the GOP Presidential Race Shifting Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses
by Seth Masket
January 4, 2024

Introduction:
(Politico) Leading into the first contest of the 2024 GOP presidential race, Donald Trump maintains a dominant lead among Republican grassroots leaders — and Nikki Haley has eclipsed Ron DeSantis for second place.

That’s according to a new poll of GOP county chairs from across the country, with those seeking an alternative to Trump flocking to Haley rather than DeSantis in the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Among Republican chairs committed to a candidate, Trump has 37 percent, Haley has 16 percent and DeSantis has 9 percent. The candidate who chairs are most vehemently against? Chris Christie.

I began surveying county chairs nearly one year ago in an effort to track the so-called “invisible primary” for the 2024 campaign — the crucial coordination and jockeying that occurs before anyone starts voting or caucusing, but which will do much to determine the eventual winner. County chairs are figures who play a key role in shaping the race. They are highly attentive to the party’s internal dynamics and are influential in local GOP circles; they offer the kind of endorsements that candidates are eager to collect. They’re also still close to the rank-and-file grassroots, and their shifts are likely to signal where the rest of the party is going.

Their shifting sentiment over the last year, captured in an ongoing series for POLITICO Magazine, tells the story of the GOP presidential race until now, which has been far more fluid than the conventional wisdom suggests. In early 2023, it looked like Trump would have a real fight on his hands against DeSantis. But over the following months, Trump’s support grew while DeSantis’ waned. All the while, many county chairs remained undecided. But lately, they’ve been coming off the sidelines, first moving to Trump and now to Haley, though she is almost certain to fall short in catching up to the former president.

In follow-up questions to the county chairs who were surveyed, Trump supporters made clear they were resolute in their stance. Trump also appeared to be vindicated by his decision to skip the 2024 candidate debates.
Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine ... 00133663
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Trump’s Iowa Political Organizing this Year is Nothing Like his Scattershot 2016 Campaign
by Barbara Trish
January 5, 2024

Introduction:
(The Conversation) Donald Trump is doing something new in Iowa.

The state is home to the first-in-the-nation GOP nomination event, the Iowa caucus, which takes place on Jan. 15, 2024, at 7 pm. Trump, the former president, holds a resounding lead over his rivals.

What’s new for Trump in this campaign is actually old stuff – a throwback to traditional caucus campaigning. I’ve observed Iowa caucus campaigns over eight cycles, and my 2022 book, “Inside the Bubble,” offers a close-up of the 2020 Democratic contest. Against that backdrop, it’s clear that the former president is taking cues from those who’ve come before him.

The widely accepted path to caucus success – first paved in 1976 by then-unknown Jimmy Carter on his way to the Democratic nomination and eventually the White House – is to “organize, organize, organize,” as many campaign staff will tell you. Since then, it’s been the mantra for candidates of both parties – and this year, that includes Trump.

But such attention to organizing is a shift for the Trump campaign. Today, it looks nothing like the scattershot campaign from 2016, the only other time Trump has waged a nomination battle in the state.
Read more here: https://theconversation.com/trumps-iow ... n-220368
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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DeSantis Admits He's 'Looking' for 'Credible Case' To Ban Biden From Florida's 2024 Ballot

He's such a punk.

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/car ... 024-ballot

by Carl Gibson | January 7, 2024 - 7:26am

Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis recently admitted that he was "looking" into ways he could ban President Joe Biden from appearing on the Sunshine State's 2024 presidential election ballot.

The Messenger reported that DeSantis remarked while campaigning alongside Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) that following Colorado and Maine's disqualification of former President Donald Trump from their states' Republican primary ballot, the GOP was in a "tit for tat" on ballot access that was "just not gonna end well." The term-limited Florida governor hinted at using the influx of immigrants at the Southern border as justification to disqualify Biden.

"You could make a case — I'm actually looking at this in Florida now [if we] could we make a credible case [to block Biden from the ballot]... because of the invasion of 8 million."

While DeSantis effectively admitted there's not yet a credible case to justify disqualifying Biden from the Florida ballot, both Colorado and Maine have disqualified Trump due to his 2024 candidacy coming into conflict with Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution (also known as the "insurrection clause" ). The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has agreed to hear Trump's appeal of the Colorado ruling, and a Maine superior court is due to rule on Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows' disqualification of the ex-president prior to the Pine Tree State's GOP primary.

The Colorado supreme court ruled 4-3 in the Anderson v. Griswold case that the January 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol constituted an "insurrection," and interpreted Trump's actions as violating the clause's language that banned federal candidates from holding any "civilian or military" office who had "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the United States, or "given aid and comfort to the enemies thereof." Like Colorado's high court, Bellows also issued an administrative ruling that Trump was "not qualified to hold the office of president" due to his involvement in the January 6 insurrection.

DeSantis' estimate of eight million undocumented immigrants is not accurate. The Messenger reported that the actual number of immigrants who have entered the US since Biden became president in 2021 is closer to four million, and the vast majority of those immigrants came to the US legally.

Depending on SCOTUS' ruling, Trump may be disqualified from the ballot not just from Colorado and Maine, but from all 50 states if a majority of justices agree that Trump violated the insurrection clause.
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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American Research Group New Hampshire primary poll: Trump 37%, Haley 33%

Trump 37%
Haley 33%
Christie 10%
DeSantis 5%
Ramaswamy 4%

https://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2 ... nhrep.html
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Nikki Haley is Surging but Is Still Way Behind Trump
by Russ Choma
January 7, 2024

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is surging at just the right time—armed with tens of millions in donor money, she appears to be leaving Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and his New Right adherents, in the dust. With Iowa GOP voters caucusing for their choice in just eight days Haley’s run is well-timed. But it still leaves her shockingly far behind former president Donald Trump.

According to the latest national polling averages, Haley trails Trump by more than 50 percentage points. In Iowa, the deficit is close to 35 percent. In New Hampshire, where it’s tightest, she is only behind by about 13 percent (4 percent according to the poll reported upon in the immediately preceding post - caltrek). Haley hopes she could hope to grab liberal voters to make up the gap in the Grantine State and has even joked New Hampshire will “correct” Iowa. But the difference is still double-digits.

Despite the unlikeness of pulling off a victory, Haley’s surge has still provoked Trump’s ire. The former president has begun complaining Haley “sold me out” by running for president. Trump’s campaign and his super-PAC have also spent millions attacking Haley in New Hampshire, portraying her as weak on immigration and a danger to the country.

Of the other candidates, Trump probably should worry the most about Haley. Money has coalesced around her. Haley just announced she raised $24 million in the fourth quarter of 2023—that’s more than twice what she raised in the third quarter—and the political network founded by the Koch brothers said it would start spending heavily on Haley as well.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... d-trump/
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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CNN-UNH NH: Trump 39, Haley 32

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -hampshire

Trump 39
Haley 32
Christie 12
Ramaswamy 8
De Santis 5
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Democratic National Convention Makes One of First Major Planning Reveals
by Mike Allen
January 9, 2024

Introduction:
(Axios) With 223 days until the Democratic National Convention opens in Chicago, organizers are making one of their first big announcements.
Driving the news: The Marriott Marquis Chicago and Hyatt Regency at McCormick Place, both connected to the McCormick Place convention center, will be the official headquarters hotels for the convention, Aug. 19-22.

Why it matters: That makes those hotels the base of operations for staff from the Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC), DNC and Biden for President campaign, plus key leaders from coalition groups, convention organizers tell Axios.

How it works: The convention says in a forthcoming release that it "will offer more convenience than ever before for delegates, media and guests."

• "Official convention activities on the ground are consolidated to three main areas within a five-mile radius: the United Center for official proceedings and primetime programming, McCormick Place for daytime party business, and downtown hotels for delegates."
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/chica ... campaign
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Chris Christie Ends 2024 Presidential Bid
by Hunter Woodall, Fin Gómez, Grace Kazarian, and Jacob Rosen
January 10, 2024

Introduction:
(CBS) Chris Christie announced Wednesday that he's suspending his campaign for the presidency, ending a bid that focused almost solely on criticizing Donald Trump and making the case that the former president should not be the Republican nominee.

"It's clear to me tonight, that there isn't a path for me to win the nomination, which is why I'm suspending my campaign tonight for president United States," he said at an event in Windham, New Hampshire.

Christie, the former New Jersey governor who famously endorsed Trump after ending his own 2016 presidential bid, was by far the most persistent critic of the former president on the 2024 campaign trail. But in a Republican party where Trump has maintained his status as the apparent frontrunner, Christie's narrowly focused bid always seemed to be a long-shot effort.

The turning point for Christie, who staked his entire presidential primary campaign on a strong showing in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, came when he failed to win the coveted endorsement of the state's GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who instead backed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Christie has not divulged whether he plans to endorse in the race, but minutes before the event in which he announced the suspension of his campaign, he could be heard on a hot mic saying, "She's gonna get smoked. And you and I both know it. She's not up to this." He did not mention Haley by name in that exchange, but another voice in the conversation seemed to reference her, saying that she was still "20 points behind Trump in New Hampshire."
Read more here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-chr ... ld-trump/
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Arizona (PPP/Replace Sinema PAC): Biden +1

Biden (D) 47%
Trump (R) 46%

https://themessenger.com/politics/new-a ... -exclusive
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Democrat announces long-shot campaign for North Dakota's only U.S. House seat

Source: KFGO Fargo, ND

Jan 11, 2024 | 2:43 PM


BISMARCK, N.D. – A Democratic military veteran is seeking North Dakota’s sole U.S. House seat, aiming for an upset in a state where Republicans hold every statewide and congressional office and Democrats haven’t won a statewide election since Heidi Heitkamp’s U.S. Senate victory in 2012.

“It is time to elect a pro-union, pro-choice, and pro-democracy leader to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House of Representatives,” Trygve Hammer, of Minot, said in announcing his candidacy on Wednesday.

He’s challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong, an attorney and former state senator elected to the seat in 2018.

Hammer, who has previously run unsuccessfully for the state House and for North Dakota’s Public Service Commission, brings a wide-ranging resume. He cites 25 years of military experience, including deployment to Iraq in 2003 as a weapons platoon commander. He retired in 2010 as a major in the Marine Corps Reserve. He also worked as an airline pilot, freight rail conductor and a grades 7-12 science teacher.
Read more: https://kfgo.com/2024/01/11/democrat-an ... ouse-seat/
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Re: 2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Iowa - Iowa State University: Trump +41
« on: Today at 12:48:23 PM »
1. If the Republican Caucuses were held today, which one of the following candidates
would be your first choice?

55% Donald Trump, former President
14% Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida
14% Nikki Haley, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor
8% Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and political commentator
4% Chris Christie, former Governor of New Jersey
2% Ryan Binkley, pastor and businessman
0% Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas
0% David Stuckenberg, acting director of strategic plans at HQ Texas Air National Guard
3% Unsure
0% I would not vote in the Republican Caucus

https://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2024/ ... ucus-poll5
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