Economic and jobs news thread

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Fed delivers normal-sized rate cut, sees steady pace of further reductions; Miran dissents

https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-de ... 025-09-17/

Bank of Canada lowers interest rate to 2.5% in first cut since March

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-o ... -1.7635891

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Working-Class Americans Are Hurting—And Traditional Statistics Aren’t Showing How Much
By Brad Reed
September 22 2025

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) With the rising cost of groceries, housing, healthcare, and other essentials a central issue facing communities across the United States due to the Republican agenda, one expert believes that commonly cited economic statistics aren’t capturing the depth of working families’ struggles.

Gene Ludwig, former US comptroller of the currency under President Bill Clinton, is arguing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) no longer delivers an accurate portrait of families’ hardships because it does not focus enough on the core costs that impact working people on a daily basis.

As reported by Bloomberg on Monday, Ludwig believes the CPI tracks too many goods that are either luxury purchases or are only bought sporadically. A relevant measure of inflation, he told the outlet, should primarily include goods that are essential to living, such as groceries, housing, healthcare, and energy.

Ludwig and his colleagues at the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity have developed their own measurement called True Living Cost (TLC), which focuses on core household needs and excludes items such as plane tickets and golf carts that are included in the CPI formula.

Prices as measured by the TLC have grown 1.3 times faster than prices as measured by the traditional CPI over the last 24 years, which may explain why US consumer sentiment has remained low even during times when the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation have been falling.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/infl ... althcare

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Ah yes Eugene Ludwig. Love his work

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The US economy grew at a 3.8% rate in the second quarter, significantly stronger than previously reported

Source: CNN Business

Updated Sep 25, 2025, 9:54 AM ET
PUBLISHED Sep 25, 2025, 8:33 AM ET

Washington — The US economy’s comeback in the second quarter was just revised higher again, and economists estimate that momentum carried on in the third quarter, underscoring the resilience of the world’s largest economy.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% from April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s significantly higher than the 3.3% rate reported in the second estimate, and well above the 3% initially reported.

GDP was revised higher largely due to new additional data on consumer spending. Personal consumption expenditures rose at an annualized pace of 2.5% in the second quarter, according to the third estimate, up sharply from the second estimate’s 1.6%. The big difference between the first estimate and the third one is “certainly notable and outside the norm,” Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at investing platform eToro, told CNN.

“This year’s economic data — especially over the past few months — has been noisy, and economic policy uncertainty has remained elevated throughout 2025,” he said. “With so many moving parts in the GDP report, it’s not surprising that larger-than-expected revisions are showing up, particularly in a year marked by heightened volatility and mixed signals.”

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/25/economy/us-gdp-q2-final

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Core inflation rate held at 2.9% in August, as expected, Fed's gauge shows

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Sep 26 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated 14 Min Ago

Core inflation was little changed in August, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary forecasting tool, likely keeping the central bank on pace for interest rate reductions ahead. The personal consumption expenditures price index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Excluding food and energy, the more closely followed core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. The headline annual inflation rate was a slight increase from the 2.6% in July while the core rate was the same.

All of the numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Spending and income numbers were slightly higher than expected. Personal income increased 0.4% for the month, while personal consumption expenditures accelerated at a 0.6% pace. Both were 0.1 percentage point above the respective estimates.

Though the Fed targets inflation at 2%, the readings are unlikely to change course for policymakers who last week indicated they see two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/26/pce-inf ... -2025.html

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White House withdraws Trump’s controversial nominee to lead BLS after ousting predecessor over jobs data

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1NCCv8

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ADP jobs report: -32K in September (August revised from +54K to -3K)

US private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, the latest sign that the labor market is in a serious pullback.

The data out Wednesday from payroll processor ADP was far below economists’ expectations of 51,000 jobs added. Private payrolls for August were also revised sharply lower to a loss of 3,000, after data initially showed a gain of 54,000.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-repo ... 14355.html

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Government shutdown delays key monthly jobs report at a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy

Source: NBC News

Oct. 3, 2025, 5:00 AM EDT

For people who closely follow the U.S. economy, the first Friday of every month is known as “jobs Friday,” when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the previous month’s employment report at precisely 8:30 a.m. ET. But on this jobs Friday, September's employment data — a critical window into the health of the U.S. labor market — will not be released.

Like many other federal offices, the BLS is temporarily closed because of the ongoing government shutdown. Until Congress approves its funding, the bureau’s more than 2,000 employees will remain furloughed, unable to release any reports.

The data blackout comes at a perilous time for the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate has steadily ticked up this year, from a seasonally adjusted 4% in January to 4.3% in August. On Wednesday, new private-sector employment data released by payroll processing giant ADP showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. Economists had expected a gain of around 45,000 jobs.

The surprise loss of private-sector jobs only served to compound the value a Friday jobs report could have provided to policymakers and businesses as they try to make sense of the rapid shifts underway in the labor market.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/econom ... rcna235298

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Governor Newsom Signs Senator Wiener’s Landmark Law To Build More Homes Near Public Transit

https://sd11.senate.ca.gov/news/governo ... ic-transit

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U.S. inflation ticks back up to 3%

The cost of living got even more expensive for Americans last month, with prices rising at the fastest pace since the start of the year.

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, which drove the annual rate of inflation from 2.9% to 3%, the highest it’s been since January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/24/economy/ ... -september

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US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Five-Month Low on Prices

US consumer sentiment fell in October to a five-month low, as worries persisted about stubbornly high prices and the impact on their finances.

The final October sentiment index fell to 53.6 from 55.1 in September, a deterioration from the preliminary reading, according to the University of Michigan. A measure of current conditions dropped to the lowest since August 2022.



Consumers expect prices to rise 3.9% over the next five to 10 years, more than the 3.7% they anticipated a month ago, the data released Friday showed. Respondents expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.6% over the next year, down slightly from 4.7% a month earlier.

“Overall, consumers perceive few material changes in economic circumstances from last month; inflation and high prices remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “There was little evidence this month that consumers connect the federal government shutdown to the economy.”

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-concerns

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Fed cuts interest rates for 2nd time this year, but rejects large reduction sought by Trump

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-exp ... =126911488

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ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

Source: ADP via PRwire

ROSELAND, N.J. - November 5, 2025 - Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the October ADP National Employment Report produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab {"Stanford Lab"}.

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the labor market based on the anonymized weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees in the United States. ADP's Pay Insights captures over 15 million individual pay change observations each month. Together, the jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained data to provide a representative and high-frequency picture of the private-sector labor market.

"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced."

Read more: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 05577.html


https://adpemploymentreport.com/

https://adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com/arti ... 0FINAL.pdf

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US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 Years

Source: Bloomberg

"US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

Companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month, almost triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.

“Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” Challenger said in the report. “Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market.”

Layoffs for Any October Highest Since 2003
Warehousing and technology sectors led last month's surge"

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-americas

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