2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Like Trump doesn't f*ck up all the time and make mistakes ontop of the reality that he is a fucking criminal. The truth is his base wants their putin and wants their putin to force religion down everyones throats. That is the TRUTH.

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[caltrek]

Some of the pundits on MSNBC conveyed a rather optimistic take on implications of the results. The idea was put forward that Republicans are now failing to meet expectations because low-information voters are becoming less motivated to show up to the polls and actually vote for Republican candidates. These low-information voters are less inclined to put forward effort to carefully follow the news. Negative news about Trump in particular and the Republicans in general that does manage to seep through to them may be having this effect of dampening their enthusiasm. They may not be swinging all the way to voting Democrat but are adversely affecting election results simply by not voting. At least that is a sort of working hypothesis that is being put forward. This argument is in support of the premise that Democrats are continuing to overperform in relation to poll induced expectations. If correct, this could have important implications for the general election scheduled for November 2024.

Other factors include the relative success Democrats seem to now have in raising funds, and new voters being mobilized by issues such as abortion rights.

It will be interesting to see if this claimed trend toward overperforming continues.

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Redfield: Trump +1
Trump 42
Biden 41
Kennedy 8
Other 3
Don’t know 6

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com ... uary-2024/

Cygnal: Trump +1
Trump (R) 47%
Biden (D) 46%
Undecided 7%

Same as January

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/ ... -Feb24.pdf

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Senator Joe Manchin Announces He Won't Run for President in 2024
February 16, 2024

Introduction:

(ABC via MSN) Sen. Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia, announced Friday he will not launch a 2024 bid for the White House as an independent -- removing what would have been a major challenge for President Joe Biden's campaign.

"I will not be seeking a third-party run. I will not be involved in a presidential," Manchin said at an event at West Virginia University.

Manchin told the crowd that he will focus on putting his efforts behind his daughter's Super PAC "Americans Together."

"I will be involved in making sure that we secure a president that has the knowledge and has the passion and has the ability to bring this country together. And right now, we're challenged and we've got to see if we can move people in that direction."

Additional Extract:

Had Manchin run for president as a third-party candidate, it would have likely pulled marginal support from Biden and subtly shift the election toward former President DonaldTrump, according to analysis from 538.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... 3e9&ei=10

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Democrats Are Trailing Everywhere Except at the Ballot Box
by Susan Milligan
February 16, 2024

Extract:

(U.S. News via MSN) Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress.

"Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been happening," says Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern, a veteran lawmaker from Massachusetts who has served in both the minority and the majority. Despite what the polls say, "people have been voting, and they've been voting Democratic. I feel really good about November – and not just about the president. I feel really good about us taking back the House."
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In the past year, Republicans lost the mayoral races in both ruby-red Colorado Springs, Colorado (where an independent newcomer, Yemi Mobolade, became the city's first Black mayor), and in Jacksonville, Florida, where Democrat Donna Deegan's win erased Jacksonville's distinction as the largest U.S. city with a Republican mayor.

In November, Democrats flipped the Virginia state House, gained seats in the New Jersey state legislature, held onto the governorship in deep red Kentucky, and won city council and school board races across the country. Last month, Democrats picked up a critical state House seat in Orlando, Florida – an important indicator of political mood in the I-4 corridor, home to many Hispanics.

Nationally, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in voter registration, going from trailing the GOP in September (28% Republican registration and 24% Democratic registration) to leading in January (27% Democratic registration versus 25% Republican registration), according to Gallup.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... 3e9&ei=21

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Tlaib Urges Michigan to Send Biden a Message on Gaza by Voting Uncommitted
by Jessica Corbett
February 18, 2024

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Speaking outside an early voting site on Saturday, Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib urged fellow Michigan Democrats to vote uncommitted in the February 27 primary to send President Joe Biden a message about U.S. support for Israel as it wages a genocidal war on the Gaza Strip.

According to The Detroit News, Tlaib "is the first member of Congress in Michigan and the highest-profile official to date to get behind the Listen to Michigan campaign," which launched earlier this month and is led by her sister, Dearborn community organizer Layla Elabed.

The only Palestinian American in Congress, Tlaib recorded a 70-second video—shared on social media by the campaign—outside the Ford Community & Performing Arts Center in Dearborn, which is open for early voting February 17-25 from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm.

"It is important, as you all know, to not only march against the genocide, not only make sure that we're calling our members of Congress and local electeds and passing city resolutions all throughout our country," Tlaib said. "It is also important to create a voting bloc, something that is a bullhorn to say enough is enough. We don't want a country that supports wars and bombs and destruction. We want to support life. We want to stand up for every single life killed in Gaza."

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/listen-to-michigan

caltrek’s comment: This is a tough issue for Biden. There are a lot of hardline supporters of Israel within the Democratic party. Appealing to both that faction and the pro-Palestinian faction at the same time is extremely difficult. This difficulty threatens to be a rupture in the grand coalition that put Biden into office. This is all a consequence of decades of policy positions which failed to resolve the tensions yet aligned the U.S. with obstructionist elements within the Israeli government. Still, support of Trump is no answer because his attitudes and record on this issue are even worse. A very frustrating situation for those who would like to see a peaceful resolution of the conflict that involves something other than insult and degradation of the Palestinian community. For the citizens of Michigan, voting uncommitted could at least send a message.