UK News and Discussions

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erowind
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Re: UK News and Discussions

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joe00uk wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:46 pm
wjfox wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:13 pm The UK is now facing an unprecedented economic, energy, and food crisis in the very near future.

I think we're looking at probable civil unrest in Q1 2023 or even sooner.
In a normal country, this situation would trigger civil unrest. However, in Britain, all we will probably do is moan, grumble, and then get back to work like demoralised 19th Century Russian peasants. It would be nice to be proven wrong, but we don't have much of a revolutionary tradition.
In the short term the anglophone as a whole is rather neutered by consumer culture I agree. But don’t sell the UK short on revolutionary history. The English civil war was one of the most important revolutionary events in the past
500 years.
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Re: UK News and Discussions

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erowind wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:27 pm In the short term the anglophone as a whole is rather neutered by consumer culture I agree. But don’t sell the UK short on revolutionary history. The English civil war was one of the most important revolutionary events in the past
500 years.
Yeah, but that's just it - the English Civil War was almost four centuries ago. Overall it's been a good thing that since the 17th Century, the elites of Britain have had enough common sense to introduce sufficient reform to keep their heads away from the chopping block (and everyone else away from lost decades of turmoil and mass death). I suppose now that they've clearly lost that ability, things might change, but I wouldn't expect that to happen any time soon - be that for better or for worse. Of course, I'm fully aware I may be proven wrong. If there's anything the last few years have taught us, it's that history is always full of the things we could never even have imagined beforehand.
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Re: UK News and Discussions

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The UK isn't immune to social unrest. We had riots in 2011 (the only time I've actually feared for my life), and in 1990 (Poll Tax riots).

The last decade has seen a gradual decline in public services and overall living standards – but in general, people have just about managed to get by. That won't be the case with what we're now facing, which is much more abrupt and will severely impact the incomes of practically half the country.

The situation isn't helped by our inept government who seem to lack even basic human empathy. And if Truss becomes our PM, the plan she's described would do nothing to help the poorest.

LBC had an 83-year-old caller on this morning. She said things had never been this bad in the UK during her lifetime.
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Re: UK News and Discussions

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wjfox wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:15 pm The UK isn't immune to social unrest. We had riots in 2011 (the only time I've actually feared for my life), and in 1990 (Poll Tax riots).

The last decade has seen a gradual decline in public services and overall living standards – but in general, people have just about managed to get by. That won't be the case with what we're now facing, which is much more abrupt and will severely impact the incomes of practically half the country.

The situation isn't helped by our inept government who seem to lack even basic human empathy. And if Truss becomes our PM, the plan she's described would do nothing to help the poorest.

LBC had an 83-year-old caller on this morning. She said things had never been this bad in the UK during her lifetime.
Just my two-cents about a country that I don't even live in (and have never visited although I have lived and visited other countries in Europe): If there is a revolution, I hope for the sake of all of those who do live there that it is non-violent in nature. That is to say thoroughly replaces the "inept government" with a government that has a greater sense of empathy for its citizens, especially and particularly the poorest among you.
Don't mourn, organize.

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joe00uk
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Re: UK News and Discussions

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Not immune, for sure, and I'm not doubting that there may be spurts of unrest, such as in 2011 or 1990. What I'm doubtful of is whether such unrest (over the next year or two) will escalate much further, for example to the point of overthrowing the government or even just coordinating a general strike like in 1926 (which resulted in a government victory anyway). Currently there just doesn't seem to be the organisation or leadership to pull off something like that, even on an underground level. But we'll see - sometimes such things can happen very quickly.

That said, I don't expect the current Westminster regime to survive another generation. I think looking further into the future there almost certainly will be greater unrest, and the most likely scenario for the regime's fall is probably something similar to the revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe. I just don't see 2022 or 2023 as our 1989 - we're likely still in our early 1970s equivalent. There are certainly a great many parallels between now and then.
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erowind
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Re: UK News and Discussions

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joe00uk wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:52 pm That said, I don't expect the current Westminster regime to survive another generation. I think looking further into the future there almost certainly will be greater unrest, and the most likely scenario for the regime's fall is probably something similar to the revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe. I just don't see 2022 or 2023 as our 1989 - we're likely still in our early 1970s equivalent. There are certainly a great many parallels between now and then.
Read both of your comments in full, That all makes sense, this paragraph in particular I agree with wholly. There's been a lot of time since the English Civil War. My whole thing was more that revolutionary potential will come with class conflict eventually in almost every culture, but yes, expecting this in the next few years is far too soon. My projections for most anglophone nations have consistently been in the 2040 onwards timeframe. (Barring maybe new Zealand, they may balance a social democratic transition well enough due to geographic advantage and seemingly resilient institutions.)

Always a good time to post this clip from Adam Curtis's Hypernormalization!

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Re: UK News and Discussions

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erowind wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:27 am Read both of your comments in full, That all makes sense, this paragraph in particular I agree with wholly. There's been a lot of time since the English Civil War. My whole thing was more that revolutionary potential will come with class conflict eventually in almost every culture, but yes, expecting this in the next few years is far too soon. My projections for most anglophone nations have consistently been in the 2040 onwards timeframe. (Barring maybe new Zealand, they may balance a social democratic transition well enough due to geographic advantage and seemingly resilient institutions.)
I definitely agree there! We think the 2020s are crazy so far, but it won't have anything on the coming mid-century madness. Buckle your seatbelts!
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"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."

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