2022 midterm election thread

weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Current House forecast:

Economist: R 221.5 - D 213.5
538: R 224 - D 211
YouGov: R 223 - D 212
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Virginia's early vote tracker is up! 11,000 votes have been accepted so far, with results by CD and county.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-vo ... -election/
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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September 25, 2022

Dem- 3,657 (+555)
Rep- 983 (+151)
Other 2,078 (+311)

Dem- 54.27% (+0.05%)
Rep- 14.59% (+0.05%)
U/A- 30.84% (-0.05%)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/P ... eneral.pdf
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Reuters/Ipsos

41% approve (+2)
53% disapprove (-4)

(changes from last week)
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caltrek
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

Post by caltrek »

ProPublica’s User’s Guide to Democracy
by Karim Doumar and Cynthia Gordy Giwa
September 25, 2022

Introduction:
(ProPublica)
Who You’ll Be Voting for in the 2022 Midterm Elections

We’re going to start off with some basics. (You probably learned some of this in elementary school, but it’s easy to forget, and we need to start somewhere!)

Members of Congress

Made up of the Senate and the House of Representatives, which together are theoretically coequal to the presidency, Congress is tasked with making laws on our behalf.

Each member of the Senate represents their entire state, with two senators per state. Unless filling a vacancy, senators are elected to six-year terms, and every two years about one-third of them are up for election. That means a lot of places don’t have a Senate race this year. You can see which senators’ terms are ending here.

No matter what state you live in, your congressional district is voting for a House representative in this year’s election. Each of the 435 House members represents a portion of their state, known as a congressional district, averaging 760,000 people. This is the person in the federal government closest to you, working in your district’s name. You can find your representative and their voting history in ProPublica’s Represent database. (See hyperlink within hyperlinked article to access data base).

The 2022 midterms have an added complication: redistricting. Every 10 years, states go through a political process of redrawing their congressional districts. Sometimes it’s because the state has gained or lost house seats after the census. For example after the 2020 census, Texas gained two house seats while California and West Virginia lost one each. In fact, seven states lost a seat, and six gained seats.
Read more here: https://www.propublica.org/article/202 ... on-basics
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022

Votes are starting to come in from Pennsylvania but numbers so far are low, 1269 total, it's not worth breaking it down yet.
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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New National Early Vote totals:

September 28, 2022:

Party Count Percent
Democrat 6,377 54.2
Republican 2,101 17.9
None/Minor 3,284 27.9
TOTAL 11,762 100.0
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Crystal Ball rating changes:

CA-22: Likely D to Safe D
NJ-11: Likely D to Safe D
NC-14: Likely D to Safe D
OH-09: Tossup to Lean D (previously announced on Twitter)
OR-04: Likely D to Lean D
OR-06: Likely D to Lean D

Quote
With these most recent updates, we currently rate 187 seats as Safe Republican, 16 as Likely Republican, and 12 as Leans Republican — a total of 215 seats at least leaning Republican. We rate 158 seats as Safe Democratic, 14 as Likely Democratic, and 24 as Leans Democratic — a total of 196 seats at least leaning Democratic. There are 24 Toss-ups: Splitting them evenly between the parties would result in a 227-208 Republican House, or a 14-seat Republican gain compared to the 213 seats Republicans won in 2020.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalba ... the-house/
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