2022 midterm election thread

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wjfox
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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The Supreme Court may have just fundamentally altered the 2022 election

Updated 1517 GMT (2317 HKT) May 3, 2022

The draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn the right to an abortion is a massive story with a myriad of implications for the American public. It also may be exactly what Democrats need to solve their passion problem heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

At issue for Democrats is that, with less than 200 days before the midterms, their base is significantly less motivated to vote than the Republicans.

[...]

The Supreme Court's looming decision on Roe v. Wade is one of those external factors that does have the ability to fundamentally alter how the parties -- and their bases -- see the coming election.

Sensing that, Democrats immediately began to cast the 2022 midterms as a straight referendum on the decision.

"If the Court does overturn Roe, it will fall on our nation's elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman's right to choose," Biden said in a statement Tuesday. "And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November."

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/03/poli ... index.html
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Shontel Brown Defeats Nina Turner in Tense Ohio Rematch
Source: Yahoo / Reuters
Congresswoman Shontel Brown (D-OH) decisively won the Democratic primary in Ohio’s 11th congressional district Tuesday night, once again fending off progressive activist Nina Turner, who mounted a rematch bid against her this year.

Turner and Brown last faced off last August in the Democratic special-election primary to replace Marcia Fudge, who left her seat in Congress to serve as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Their race attracted swells of outside spending and drew tense divides between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic Party.

While the rematch was quieter, the fissures that emerged during last year’s contest remained. Brown’s brief tenure in the House won her endorsements from a number of key Democratic players, including President Joe Biden, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, among others.

Turner, however, still drew some endorsements from the more-progressive left, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and a number of outside groups. She argued Brown was too dependent on PAC money— that she was the more active fighter for progressives’ legislative priorities.
Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/shontel-brown-de ... 26985.html
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Tim Ryan wins Democratic nomination in Senate race to succeed Rob Portman
Source: The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Tim Ryan, a Niles-area congressman, easily won Tuesday’s Democratic primary in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman, the Associated Press projects.

Ryan was the odds-on favorite heading into Tuesday’s election with nearly universal support of the Democratic establishment in the state. He was easily able to fend off upstart challengers Morgan Harper, a former attorney at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and Traci “T.J.” Johnson, a Columbus tech executive and activist.

Democrats are pinning their hopes that Ryan can become just the third Democrat to win a statewide partisan election in the past 12 years. The other two are former President Barack Obama and Sen. Sherrod Brown. Ryan’s uphill battle in the general election likely will be even steeper amid a national political climate that’s expected to favor Republicans as part of a backlash against Democratic President Joe Biden.

Addressing supporters in Columbus, Ryan offered a preview of his general election message, casting himself as an adult in the room who will advocate for workers and manufacturing. He also alluded to likely needing support from across the political spectrum if he’s going to have a chance at winning.
Read more: https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/05/ ... rtman.html
weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Vance wins Ohio Senate primary, handing Trump key victory
Source: The Hill
J.D. Vance was projected to win Ohio’s GOP Senate primary Tuesday, scoring the nomination after a brutal race and handing former President Trump a key victory after a late endorsement.

The Associated Press called the race at shortly after 9:30 p.m. ET.

Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” won over a crowded field packed with Trump allies, including former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, investment banker Mike Gibbons and former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken.

He will go on to face Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in the November general election to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R).

Read more: https://thehill.com/news/campaign/34738 ... y-victory/
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Trump Still Won’t Shut Up. He’s Doing Democrats Running for Office a Huge Favor
by Robert Reich

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... bert-reich

Introduction:
(The Guardian) The beginning of May before midterm elections marks the start of primary season and six months of fall campaigning. The conventional view this year is that Democrats will be clobbered in November. Why? Because midterms are usually referendums on a president’s performance, and Biden’s approval ratings are in the cellar.

But the conventional view could be wrong because it doesn’t account for the Democrat’s secret sauce, which gives them a fighting chance of keeping one or both chambers: Trump.

According to recent polls, Trump’s popularity continues to sink. He is liked by only 38% of Americans and disliked by 46%. (12% are neutral.) And this isn’t your normal “sort of like, sort of dislike” polling. Feelings are intense, as they’ve always been about Trump. Among voters 45 to 64 years old – a group Trump won in 2020, 50% to 49%, according to exit polls – just 39% now view him favorably and 57%, unfavorably. Among voters 65 and older (52% of whom voted for him in 2020 to Biden’s 47) only 44% now see him favorably and more than half (54%) unfavorably. Perhaps most importantly, independents hold him in even lower regard. Just 26% view him favorably; 68% unfavorably.

Republican lawmakers had hoped – and assumed – Trump would have faded from the scene by now, allowing them to engage in full-throttled attacks on Democrats in the lead-up to the midterms. No such luck. In fact, Trump’s visibility is growing daily.

The media is framing this month’s big Republican primaries as all about Trump – which is exactly as Trump wants them framed. But this framing is disastrous for Republicans. The Republican Ohio primary, for example, became a giant proxy battle over who was the Trumpiest candidate. The candidates outdid each other trying to imitate him – railing against undocumented immigrants, coastal elites, “socialism”, and “wokeness”, all the while regurgitating the Big Lie that Democrats stole the 2020 presidential election.
caltrek's comment: I hope Reich is right. Still, it sounds disturbingly like Hillary Clinton's rooting for Trump in the 2016 primary on the theory that he would be so easy to beat in the general election. We all know how that turned out. Yes, times have changed and we now have five years of Trump's antics to realize just how deranged the man is. Still, the Democrats can't afford to simply assume voters will do the logical thing. They have to make the case for themselves and their policies. Even Reich later in the article observes that "Democrats need to show voters their continuing commitment to improving voters’ lives." Additionally, it is not just a matter of commitment, but also of explaining how Democratic policies and governance can do exactly that. Especially if the Democrats can gain a more complete control of the Senate, as opposed to being in a position of being easily sabotaged by Manchin, Sinema, and Kelly.
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weatheriscool
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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States line up for fight to go first in Democrats' next presidential primary
Source: Politico
More than a dozen states and at least one territory are applying to be among the first to vote for Democrats’ next presidential nominee — with the biggest pile-up coming out of the Midwest, where states are jockeying to take Iowa’s long-held early spot.

Fifteen state parties and counting, plus Puerto Rico, have submitted letters of intent to the Democratic National Committee ahead of a Friday deadline to be considered as a 2024 early state, according to a POLITICO tally. The process — the first major reimagining of the early-state presidential order in years — is being run through the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, which will hear pitches from different states in late June and recommend a new early-state lineup to the full DNC by July.

The roster of states looking to go early hails from all over the country, including New Jersey, Washington, Colorado and Georgia. But a particularly intense competition is brewing in the Midwest, where Iowa — whose lack of diversity and messy caucus process drew Democratic ire in 2020, sparking the new look at the calendar — has been forced to reapply for its traditional slot. It is under pressure from five other states seeking to be the regional representative in the early-state lineup, depending on how broadly the DNC defines the region: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

The shakeup is part of a broader move by forces in the Democratic Party that want to eliminate caucuses and give more influence to voters of color. While Democrats moved Nevada and South Carolina forward on the calendar in 2008 to increase the racial diversity of the voters who get an early say on presidential nominations, the party voted this spring to fully reopen the nominating process, including the first two spots occupied for a half-century by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/0 ... s-00030560
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Judge: Marjorie Taylor Greene is qualified for reelection
Source: AP

By KATE BRUMBACK

ATLANTA (AP) — A judge in Georgia on Friday found that U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green can run for reelection, rejecting arguments from a group of voters who had challenged her eligibility over allegations that she engaged in insurrection. But the decision will ultimately be up to Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

State Administrative Law Judge Charles Beaudrot announced his decision after a daylong hearing in April that included arguments from lawyers for the voters and for Greene, as well as extensive questioning of Greene herself.

State law says Beaudrot must submit his findings to Raffensperger, who has to decide whether Greene should be removed from the ballot.

The challenge to Greene’s eligibility was filed by voters who allege the GOP congresswoman played a significant role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot that disrupted Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s presidential election victory. That puts her in violation of a seldom-invoked part of the 14th Amendment having to do with insurrection and makes her ineligible to run for reelection, they argue.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... f5e0cc901a
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caltrek
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

Post by caltrek »

^^^However much I might like to see Green disqualified from running, I am more than a bit nervous about the precedent this might set. Especially given her claim that she did not support the violence of January 6, but merely believed (what I consider a bald-faced lie) that the election was stolen.

It does suck that many Republicans will not care one iota about precedent. Rather, it will be a matter of "just us" instead of "justice", meaning that they will not hesitate to try to disqualify Democrats in even remotely similar circumstances.
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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weatheriscool wrote: Wed May 04, 2022 6:24 am Vance wins Ohio Senate primary, handing Trump key victory
Source: The Hill
...
Read more: https://thehill.com/news/campaign/34738 ... y-victory/
More on that:

The Real Winner of the Ohio Republican Primary Is Peter Thiel
by Noah Lanard
May 5, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) In 2011, Peter Thiel paid $27 million for a home in Maui. In 2022, the billionaire entrepreneur and investor is on track to get a US Senate seat for his friend and former employee, J.D. Vance, for roughly half that. It might be the best deal he’s gotten since acquiring a sizable chunk of Facebook for $500,000 in 2004.

Vance is now the favorite to become Ohio’s next senator after winning Tuesday’s competitive Republican primary. He’d been trailing in the polls but shot to the top after a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Thiel was with him every step of the way.

The PayPal co-founder announced that he was putting $10 million into a super-PAC backing Vance’s Ohio Senate bid before Vance even got into the race. He went on to give another $5 million to the super-PAC. The group functioned as a shadow campaign for Vance by conducting polling, funneling people to his events, and hiring staff that later joined Vance’s official campaign, the New York Times reported.
Read more: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... na-paypal/
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caltrek
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Re: 2022 midterm election thread

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Two Winners and Two Losers from the Nebraska and West Virginia Primaries
by Li Zhou and Nicole Narea
May 10, 2022

https://www.vox.com/2022/5/10/23066358/ ... ney-vargas

Extract:
(Vox) After helping propel all 22 of the candidates he endorsed in last week’s primaries to victory, Trump faced another major test of his clout on Tuesday.

Of all his endorsements this week, two were seen as particularly telling: those of businessman Charles Herbster for Nebraska governor and of incumbent Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia. Herbster lost; Mooney won. The fact that nearly all of Trump’s primary picks have won makes him a winner this week. But the Nebraska result is an important reminder that Trump’s endorsement doesn’t guarantee a win.

As returns came in, it quickly became clear that scandal-plagued Herbster trailed his two opponents: hog producer and University of Nebraska regent Jim Pillen, who ultimately won and was backed by term-limited Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts, and state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

Though Herbster himself had declared the race to be a proxy battle between Trump and the GOP establishment, his loss might not actually reveal much about where the party stands. Rather, it’s the result that might have been expected of a troubled candidate who was openly criticized by a popular Republican governor.

Herbster was accused of groping eight women, which he has denied, framing the accusations as an attack from the Republican establishment. He also faced scrutiny for being with members of the Trump family during the January 6 insurrection. Ricketts went so far as to declare Herbster unqualified for governor.
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