2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

Joe Sempolinski (R) defeats Max Della Pia (D) in the #NY23 special election,

@Redistrict
projects

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New Mexico Governor:

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Inc) 48% (+4)
Mark Ronchetti (R) 44%
Karen Bedonie (L) 5%

GQR Research/EDF Action
, 500 LV, 7/11-17
https://edfaction.org/sites/edaction

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Crist to pick Miami teachers union head as his running mate
Source: Politico

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Democrat Charlie Crist will pick Karla Hernández-Mats, the head of Miami-Dade County’s largest teachers union, as his running mate as he seeks to unseat Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Crist is expected to formally announce his pick during a Saturday rally in Miami that he’s holding to officially kick off his general election campaign. Crist trounced Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried 59-34 in Tuesday night’s primary and is now preparing for an uphill battle against DeSantis, who is a heavy favorite.

The Hernández-Mats pick, first reported by CBS Miami, was greeted with high praise from Democrats. The Crist campaign declined to comment for this story.

“Love it!” said state Sen. Shev Jones (D-Miami) in a text. “I think it’s a thoughtful and bright move. Karla has ALWAYS had her ear to the ground for people, and she’s a natural galvanizer. Great pick!”

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/2 ... e-00053985

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GOP seat lead shrinks as Biden approval ticks up -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
Source: CBS News

Republicans head into the fall still in position to gain enough House seats for a majority, but a tumultuous summer has made their advantage appear a little smaller today — with a trend so far pointing toward narrow gains instead of a wave. Our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Republicans at 226 seats today, down from 230 estimated in July. A majority of 218 is needed to win control.



While Republicans continue to lead with people who prioritize the economy, at least three things are tempering their overall advantage:

1. Abortion rights: it's still on voters' minds, buttressing Democratic support and helping them with women in swing districts.
2. Gas prices: most report prices in their area coming down, and with them, views of Biden's handling the economy are up a bit – part of a slight rebound we see among the Democratic base.
3. The extent to which this election is about anything other than a still-shaky economy, such as:

Donald Trump — while midterm elections are often referenda on the sitting president, this one is about the former, too. For a majority of voters he's a factor, either to support or oppose him. Democrats are winning voters whose vote is based "a lot" on how they feel about Trump.
Republican nominees: both women and independents (key voting groups) are more likely to say it's Republicans who've been nominating candidates they'd call extreme – more so than Democrats' nominees.

Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-house- ... 022-08-28/

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Big Village.
1,005 Adults. Aug 24-26

44% Approve (+6)

49% Disapprove (-4)

GCB: D 44(+3) R36(-1) Adults: D 43.6% R 35.7% RV; D 48.3%, R 40.8%

[caltrek]

High Water Mark for House Insurgents
by Andrew Solender
August 29 , 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) It's a banner year for insurgent House candidates: 2022 is posting the second-highest number of primary losses for House members since 1948.

Why it matters: Rising populism is weakening the shield of incumbency.

Driving the news: Reps. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) and Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) both lost their primaries on Tuesday.

• As is often the case in redistricting years, the two Democrats were the victims of shifting district lines that pitted Maloney against a colleague and forced Jones to abandon his district.

By the numbers: To date, in this cycle, 14 House incumbents have failed to secure their party’s nomination.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/house ... ry-losses

[weatheriscool]

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It is hard to believe but this country is probably going to keep things about how it is right now in the next election. Maybe a seat or two change in the house and hardly anything in the senate.

[weatheriscool]

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
23h
Wisconsin Governor:

Tony Evers (D-inc) 48%
Tim Michels (R) 48%

.@trafalgar_group
, 1,091 LV, 8/22-25
https://thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/upl

[weatheriscool]

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
23h
Wisconsin Senate:

Mandela Barnes (D) 49% (+2)
Ron Johnson (R-inc) 47%

.@trafalgar_group
, 1,091 LV, 8/22-25
https://thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/upl