Oil Price Watch Thread

User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Europe’s Plan to Wean Itself Off Russian Gas Just Might Work
by Matt Reynolds
August 29, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) In 1970, West German politicians and gas executives signed a landmark deal with the Soviet Union that would shape the next half-century of European energy policy. West Germany promised to supply the USSR with steel pipes, while in exchange the USSR would extend a gas pipeline to the border of West Germany and start pumping Soviet gas beneath the Iron Curtain and into Western Europe. The trade deal was one form of Ostpolitik—a wider policy of thawing relations between the USSR and West Germany that would earn then West German chancellor Willy Brandt the Nobel Peace Prize in 1971.

Brandt—who died in 1992—may not have imagined just how intertwined the two former enemies would become. By the time of German reunification in 1990, gas from the USSR accounted for more than 30 percent of the country’s gas consumption. By 2021, Russia was supplying around 40 percent of the European Union’s natural gas, with some smaller countries, such as Latvia, almost completely reliant on Russia for their supplies. Germany, with its heavy steel industry and gas-powered heating, relied on Russia for just under half of its natural gas.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 exposed deep fissures in the EU’s energy policy. After EU sanctions on Russia, the Russian state-controlled energy firm Gazprom announced it was slashing gas exports through one of its main pipelines to about 20 percent of capacity. The share of Russian gas entering Europe has dropped to 15 percent, squeezing already-inflated prices to new highs. In the UK, which is sensitive to gas prices on international markets, average energy bills are projected to reach nearly four times their January 2019 levels.


Conclusion:
Gas prices are likely to stay high for a few years, says (Chi Kong) Chyong, (a research associate at the University of Cambridge)…Rising fuel prices could push half of UK households into fuel poverty by next year, according to one study. By 2030 the EU should have overturned its reliance on Russian gas for good, but getting there will mean several tough years of energy squeezes.


Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/environmen ... ural-gas/

For a brief article on the University of York study that concluded that UK households may fall “into fuel poverty”: https://www.york.ac.uk/news-and-events ... overty-uk/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

R.I.P. Europe's Energy System
by Matt Phillips
September 7, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) In what would have been an unimaginable scenario just a few months ago, Russia has halted all natural gas flows to Europe through its Nord Stream pipeline — plunging the continent into a new era of uncertainty that's reverberating across markets.

Why it matters: The gas cut-off bodes incredibly poorly for economic growth in Europe, as a range of industries dependent on abundant Russian gas are being forced to slash production.

• German chemical giant BASF recently warned of growing cutbacks tied to surging energy prices.
• France's largest aluminum smelter said Tuesday it would cut production by roughly 20%.

What they're saying: "This broad and long-term industrial and energy strategy that the government — but also huge parts of the energy intensive industries —have pursued for decades, building entire sectors like the chemical industry around very cheap Russian gas, has collapsed," Lion Hirth, a professor of energy policy at Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance, tells Axios.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/rip-e ... gy-system
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Wall Street Giants Set to Smash Profit Records Off Global Hunger, Energy Crisis
by Jake Johnson
September 9, 2022

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) Russia's war on Ukraine has wreaked havoc on global commodity markets, driving up energy and food prices and exacerbating hunger emergencies around the world.

But while disastrous for the global poor—millions of whom are living on the brink of famine—the chaos has been a major boon for Wall Street giants, according to new data showing that the world's 100 largest banks are on pace to smash commodity trading profit records this year.

"The 100 biggest banks by revenue are set to make $18 billion from commodities trading in 2022," Bloomberg reported Friday, citing figures from the London-based firm Vali Analytics. "That would be the highest in the data, which goes back 14 years, and exceed the previous high watermark in 2009."

"The prediction is the latest evidence that the wild swings in energy prices triggered by the war in Ukraine are delivering a boon to commodity traders, even as they push European nations into crisis," Bloomberg added. "Vali, an analytics firm that tracks trading business, compiled data that includes the leading five banks in commodity trading: Macquarie Group Ltd., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., and Morgan Stanley."
Further extract:
Energy prices have also eased but remain high, contributing to cost-of-living crises throughout Europe and other parts of the globe.
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... gy-crisis
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Gas Prices are Now Cheaper than Before Russia Invaded Ukraine
by Herb Scribner
December 1, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) The average cost for a gallon of gas in the U.S. has dropped below the price it was before Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year, according to AAA.

Why it matters: It is the first time since February that gas prices cost less than $3.50 per gallon, a significant decrease from record prices in the summer.

Driving the news: A gallon of regular gas costs about $3.47 nationally on average, according to AAA. That's below the $3.54 average on Feb. 24, 2022 — the day before Russia's invasion began and gas prices soared to record highs.

• Prices at the pump have dropped 12 cents since last week and 29 cents over the last month, per AAA.

Flashback: In June, the average cost for a gallon eclipsed the $5 mark for the first time.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/12/01/gas-p ... a-ukraine
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Biden Administration Set to Start Refilling Oil Reserve
by Ben Lefebvre
December 16, 2022

Introduction:
(Politico) The Biden administration is planning to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a senior administration official said Friday, marking the end to the massive supply releases that the White House ordered to tame the sharp price spikes earlier this year.

President Joe Biden had ordered the Energy Department to begin releases from the reserve last year, and he sharply ramped up those sales after Russia invaded Ukraine in February — sending crude oil prices soaring and driving up gasoline to record levels. Total releases from the reserve this year totaled more than 211 million barrels, putting the inventories at their lowest levels since 1984.

Republicans had accused Biden of misusing the SPR for political purposes, but voters backed the measures by a clear majority, and retail gasoline prices retreated sharply as crude oil markets calmed. U.S. benchmark WTI crude futures jumped nearly $2 on the announcement and were trading at $75 per barrel early Friday afternoon. That’s well below the peak of over $120 a barrel earlier this year.

Average retail gasoline price stood at $3.178 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association — down from the record high at $5.02 in June and nearly 15 cents under the year ago level.

The Energy Department will start with an initial request for 3 million barrels, asking companies for the barrels to be delivered in February, the administration official said on a call with reporters. Companies participating in the process must submit their offers by Dec. 28 and will offer oil at a fixed price.
Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/ ... -00074369
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Related to high prices were:

“Monster Profits” Highlight Fossil Fuel Industry’s Destructive Resilience
by Oliver Milman
February 10, 2023

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) While 2022 inflicted hardship upon many people around the world due to soaring inflation, climate-driven disasters, and war, the year was lucrative on an unprecedented scale for the fossil fuel industry, with the five largest western oil and gas companies alone making a combined $200 billion in profits.

In a parade of annual results released over the past week, the “big five”—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies—all revealed that last year was the most profitable in their respective histories, as the rising cost of oil and gas, driven in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, helped turbocharge revenues.

ExxonMobil, the Texas-based oil giant, led the way with a record $55.7 billion in annual profit, taking home about $6.3 million every hour last year. California’s Chevron had a record $36.5 billion profit, while Shell announced the best results of its 115-year history, a $39.9 billion surplus, and BP, another London-based firm, notched a $27.7 billion profit. The French company TotalEnergies also had a record, at $36.2 billion.

When the 2022 results for all publicly traded oil and gas companies are tallied the total profits are expected to exceed $400 billion, “a number we’ve never seen before, and one that was built off the backs of working families who were victimized by oil and gas executives’ greed,” according to Claire Moser, deputy executive director of the US activist group Climate Power.

The stratospheric profits were criticized as “outrageous” by Joe Biden during his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Biden said that “we’re still going to need oil and gas for a while” but the US president attacked companies for enriching shareholders through share buybacks rather than helping alleviate rising gasoline costs for drivers.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/environmen ... -climate/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8733
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by wjfox »

World Bank warns oil price could soar to record $150 a barrel

Mon 30 Oct 2023 11.00 GMT

Oil prices could soar to a record high of more than $150 a barrel if the war between Israel and Hamas leads to a repeat of the full-scale conflict in the Middle East witnessed 50 years ago, the World Bank has warned.

In the first major assessment of the economic risks of an escalation of the war beyond Gaza’s borders, the World Bank said there was a risk of the cost of crude entering “uncharted waters”.

A “large disruption” scenario comparable with the Arab oil boycott of the west in 1973 would create supply shortages that would lead to the price of a barrel of oil increasing from about $90 to between $140 and 157. The previous record – unadjusted for inflation – was $147 a barrel in 2008.

“The latest conflict in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s – Russia’s war with Ukraine,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist. “That had disruptive effects on the global economy that persist to this day.

“Policymakers will need to be vigilant. If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades – not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... 0-a-barrel
User avatar
wjfox
Site Admin
Posts: 8733
Joined: Sat May 15, 2021 6:09 pm
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: Oil Price Watch Thread

Post by wjfox »

Fears of higher oil prices after Red Sea attacks

15 minutes ago

Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea risk pushing up the price of oil and other goods, analysts have warned.

Several firms have paused shipments through the route after vessels were attacked by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The world's second largest shipping line, Maersk, has said it will reroute some of its vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

The disruption has led the US to launch an international naval operation to protect ships in the Red Sea route.

Countries joining the security group include the UK, Canada, France, Bahrain, Norway and Spain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67758126


Image
Post Reply