2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

Hot Democratic Primary in Maryland Tightens a Month Before Election
by Stephen Neukam
April 12, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) One of the only serious Senate primaries for Democrats is getting more competitive just a month before voters head to polls, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Whoever emerges from the Democratic contest will face a formidable test in keeping the Senate seat blue, with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, awaiting the winner.

• Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, a county executive, has cut into the lead of Rep. David Trone (D-Md.), who was elected to the U.S. House in 2018 and has spent heavily in the primary.

• The primary is one of the most expensive in the country so far, and Marylanders will head to the polls on May 14.

Driving the news: Alsobrooks is within the margin of error against Trone, according to internal Alsobrooks campaign polling obtained by Axios.

The article also cites a Washington Post poll of March that showed Trone with a seven-point lead over Alsobrooks.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/04/12/democ ... ks-trone

Also cited is a Goucher College Poll that I have quoted from below.

(Goucher College Poll)

Voters were then asked who they would vote for in a general election contest between the Democratic candidates (Alsobrooks and Trone) and the Republican candidate (Hogan):

* 44 percent would vote for Hogan, and 40 percent would vote for Alsobrooks; 11 percent are undecided.
…
* 43 percent would vote for Hogan, and 42 percent would vote for Trone; 10 percent are undecided[./quote

Source: https://www.goucher.edu/hughes-center/ ... ring-2024.

Failure to hold onto the Maryland Senate seat would likely mean loss of control of the U.S. Senate for the Democrats. This is because it is highly probable that they will lose in West Virginia now that Joe Manchin has decided not to seek re-election and left that seat open.

[weatheriscool]

NYT/Siena: Trump +1
Trump 46 (-2)
Biden 45 (+2)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/us/p ... -poll.html

April 7-11, 1059 RV

[caltrek]

Biden Wins Wyoming’s Caucuses as Alaska Democrats Cast Their Votes for the Nomination
April 13, 2024

Introduction:

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — President Joe Biden nudged further ahead in the Democratic nomination for reelection by winning the party caucuses in Wyoming and was the only choice on the ballot later Saturday in Alaska.

As two of the least populated states, Alaska and Wyoming play minuscule roles in both intraparty and general election voting in presidential election years.

Biden effectively clinched the Democratic nomination on March 12 with the Georgia primary and is now all but certain to face former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee in November.

Alaska

Alaska Democrats are holding a voice vote for their party-run preference poll at in-person and virtual district meetings.

Biden’s is the lone candidate eligible to receive votes after the other Democrat to qualify, Dean Phillips, suspended his campaign last month. The vote is being held during meetings where other party business is conducted.

Read more here: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ ... mination

[weatheriscool]

Politico/Morning Consult: Biden +2 / +3
RV:
Biden (D) 45%
Trump (R) 43%
Someone else 7%
Don't know 5%

Among LV:
Biden (D) 47%
Trump (R) 44%
Someone else 6%
Don't know 3%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018e ... 00#page130

[caltrek]

As Elections Loom, Congressional Maps Challenged as Discriminatory Will Remain in Place
by Marlyin W. Thompson
April 4, 2024

Introduction:

(ProPublica) With the Republicans holding just a two-vote majority in the House of Representatives, voters will go to the polls in November in at least two congressional districts that have been challenged as discriminatory against people of color.

After months of delays and appeals, courts have decided in the last two weeks that the maps in South Carolina and Florida will stand, giving Republican incumbents an advantage.

Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to take action on South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. In January 2023, a three-judge federal panel had declared it an illegal racial gerrymander that must be redrawn before another election was held. In Florida, the congressional map has faced long-running discrimination lawsuits in both state and federal courts, with one state judge ruling that a district near Jacksonville disadvantaged voters of color. A higher court overturned that judgment, but an appeal from voting rights and civil rights groups is still pending before the state Supreme Court, which has said it could be months before it rules.

A decision about another contested district in Utah is pending with the state Supreme Court and seems unlikely to be resolved before the elections, according to Mark Gaber of the Campaign Legal Center, who represents plaintiffs in a partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

Put in place in 2021 after the last federal census, the controversial maps were used in multiple elections during the 2022 election cycle.

Read more here: https://www.propublica.org/article/ele ... %20cycle.

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