2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Hot Democratic Primary in Maryland Tightens a Month Before Election
by Stephen Neukam
April 12, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) One of the only serious Senate primaries for Democrats is getting more competitive just a month before voters head to polls, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Whoever emerges from the Democratic contest will face a formidable test in keeping the Senate seat blue, with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, awaiting the winner.

• Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, a county executive, has cut into the lead of Rep. David Trone (D-Md.), who was elected to the U.S. House in 2018 and has spent heavily in the primary.

• The primary is one of the most expensive in the country so far, and Marylanders will head to the polls on May 14.

Driving the news: Alsobrooks is within the margin of error against Trone, according to internal Alsobrooks campaign polling obtained by Axios.

The article also cites a Washington Post poll of March that showed Trone with a seven-point lead over Alsobrooks.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/04/12/democ ... ks-trone

Also cited is a Goucher College Poll that I have quoted from below.

(Goucher College Poll)

Voters were then asked who they would vote for in a general election contest between the Democratic candidates (Alsobrooks and Trone) and the Republican candidate (Hogan):

* 44 percent would vote for Hogan, and 40 percent would vote for Alsobrooks; 11 percent are undecided.
…
* 43 percent would vote for Hogan, and 42 percent would vote for Trone; 10 percent are undecided[./quote

Source: https://www.goucher.edu/hughes-center/ ... ring-2024.

Failure to hold onto the Maryland Senate seat would likely mean loss of control of the U.S. Senate for the Democrats. This is because it is highly probable that they will lose in West Virginia now that Joe Manchin has decided not to seek re-election and left that seat open.

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NYT/Siena: Trump +1
Trump 46 (-2)
Biden 45 (+2)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/us/p ... -poll.html

April 7-11, 1059 RV

[caltrek]

Biden Wins Wyoming’s Caucuses as Alaska Democrats Cast Their Votes for the Nomination
April 13, 2024

Introduction:

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — President Joe Biden nudged further ahead in the Democratic nomination for reelection by winning the party caucuses in Wyoming and was the only choice on the ballot later Saturday in Alaska.

As two of the least populated states, Alaska and Wyoming play minuscule roles in both intraparty and general election voting in presidential election years.

Biden effectively clinched the Democratic nomination on March 12 with the Georgia primary and is now all but certain to face former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee in November.

Alaska

Alaska Democrats are holding a voice vote for their party-run preference poll at in-person and virtual district meetings.

Biden’s is the lone candidate eligible to receive votes after the other Democrat to qualify, Dean Phillips, suspended his campaign last month. The vote is being held during meetings where other party business is conducted.

Read more here: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ ... mination

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Politico/Morning Consult: Biden +2 / +3
RV:
Biden (D) 45%
Trump (R) 43%
Someone else 7%
Don't know 5%

Among LV:
Biden (D) 47%
Trump (R) 44%
Someone else 6%
Don't know 3%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018e ... 00#page130

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As Elections Loom, Congressional Maps Challenged as Discriminatory Will Remain in Place
by Marlyin W. Thompson
April 4, 2024

Introduction:

(ProPublica) With the Republicans holding just a two-vote majority in the House of Representatives, voters will go to the polls in November in at least two congressional districts that have been challenged as discriminatory against people of color.

After months of delays and appeals, courts have decided in the last two weeks that the maps in South Carolina and Florida will stand, giving Republican incumbents an advantage.

Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to take action on South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. In January 2023, a three-judge federal panel had declared it an illegal racial gerrymander that must be redrawn before another election was held. In Florida, the congressional map has faced long-running discrimination lawsuits in both state and federal courts, with one state judge ruling that a district near Jacksonville disadvantaged voters of color. A higher court overturned that judgment, but an appeal from voting rights and civil rights groups is still pending before the state Supreme Court, which has said it could be months before it rules.

A decision about another contested district in Utah is pending with the state Supreme Court and seems unlikely to be resolved before the elections, according to Mark Gaber of the Campaign Legal Center, who represents plaintiffs in a partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

Put in place in 2021 after the last federal census, the controversial maps were used in multiple elections during the 2022 election cycle.

Read more here: https://www.propublica.org/article/ele ... %20cycle.

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Kennedy Family Brushes Off RFK Jr.’s Campaign as They Endorse Biden
by Kevin Liptak
April 18, 2024

Introduction:

(CNN) President Joe Biden received the formal endorsement of more than a dozen members of the extended Kennedy family on Thursday, aiming to harness the legacy of a storied Democratic family while implicitly underscoring their near-universal rejection of a third-party challenge mounted by one of their own, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The broader Kennedy family has mostly shunned RFK Jr.’s campaign, calling it “dangerous,” even as the candidate himself looks to capitalize on his last name and family history.

But Thursday’s event in Philadelphia - the same city where RFK Jr. announced his independent bid for the presidency in October - nonetheless highlights the threat Kennedy poses to Biden as he seeks to win reelection in a race where even a low-performing third-party candidate could act as a spoiler.

In a speech introducing Biden, Kerry Kennedy — one of RFK Jr.’s sisters who has helped lead her family’s organizing efforts — declared the president “a champion for all the rights and freedoms that my father and uncles stood for” while also warning of threats posed by Donald Trump to democracy and freedom.

“Donald Trump is running to take us backwards, attacking the most basic rights and freedoms that are core to who we are as Americans,” she said. “He has said he will be a dictator on day one, even saying he wants to try to suspend the Constitution.”

Read more here: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politic ... dex.html

[caltrek]

RFK Jr. Qualifies for Ballot in Battleground Michigan
by Aaron Pellish
April 18, 2024

Introduction:

(CNN) Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially qualified for the ballot in Michigan, a key battleground state that could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

The campaign announced on Thursday that Kennedy and his running mate Nicole Shanahan were nominated by the Natural Law Party, a minor party with ballot access in the state. Natural Law Party of Michigan chair Doug Dern told CNN the party nominated Kennedy in a convention on Wednesday. The Michigan Secretary of State’s office confirmed to CNN the party’s nomination has been approved and Kennedy will appear on the state’s ballot.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... snnews11

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[wjfox]

Trump campaign says it will deploy thousands of election workers to monitor poll sites

04/19/2024 05:00 AM EDT

Former President Donald Trump’s political operation said Thursday that it plans to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers across battleground states to monitor — and potentially challenge — vote counting in November.

The initiative — which the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee described as “the most extensive and monumental election integrity program in the nation’s history” — will include training poll watchers and workers as well as lawyers.

The program underscores Trump’s ongoing fixation with election security, which he deployed in an attempt to undermine the results of the 2020 election despite the widespread conclusion, even among Republican officials, that there was no widespread fraud.

Trump has warned supporters, without evidence, that Democrats could try to rig the 2024 election. Trump made the same false claims about the 2020 election, which he unsuccessfully tried to overturn.

Trump has privately complained that his political apparatus was not adequately prepared for the legal battles in the 2020 election. He has made clear to advisers that he would like a more robust effort to be able to challenge election results as needed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/1 ... g-00153217

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General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Marist

Trump 48, Biden 51

Biden +3

General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein

Marist

Trump 38, Biden 43, Kennedy 14, West 2, Stein 2

Biden +5

Sample size: 1047 Registered Voters

Source of Maris survey summary: https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Report on poll results: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/ele ... 24-april/

General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein

NBC News

Trump 37, Biden 39, Kennedy 13, West 3, Stein 2

Biden +2

Sample size 1000 Registered Voters

Source of NBC survey summary: https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Detailed presentation of results: https://www.documentcloud.org/document ... 4-release

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Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Plummet With Independents

Donald Trump's polling among independent voters is tumbling ahead of the presidential election, according to a new poll. In March, it was confirmed that Democratic incumbent Biden will face the Republican former president in November, with both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination, teeing up a 2020 White House rematch.

Since then, a number of polls have sought to predict the result of the presidential election. Some have suggested Biden is in the lead, while others have predicted Trump will be the victor. In general, though, the polls show the candidates are neck and neck—and with seven months until voters go to the polls, things are likely to change.

A crucial body of voters that the pair will need to court is independents. But, according to a Marist National Poll of 1,192 registered voters, Trump may find this difficult as his support among independents has declined from 38 percent in early April to 30 percent in a multi-candidate field that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein. Biden has increased his share from 33 percent to 34 percent among independents, and Kennedy's support among independents has increased to 27 percent from 21 percent.

When two candidates are offered, Trump and Biden are tied among independents and both have 49 percent of the vote. But in the previous Marist National Poll, Trump had a 7 percentage point lead over Biden among this demographic with 52 percent to Biden's 45 percent.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-p ... ts-1893071