2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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Matt
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by Matt »

He'll be poison for the Republican party in that election. Most signs seem to point to him falling out of favor pretty hard.
Either he'll win the nomination and lose, or he'll do what caltrek suggested above and run third-party, stealing a pile of votes from the actual nominee.
That's if he manages to escape his pile of legal troubles for 2 further years. I haven't been keeping up-to-date with that, but all that business with the classified documents seemed serious.
Failing the above, I'll be the 1,000,000th person to claim "Drumpf is finished!!!" and look like an idiot as he sails back into the White House in 2024.
I'm just a bird who escapes his cage to post here sometimes.
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caltrek
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by caltrek »

Mother Jones Writers Weigh-In Regarding Donald Trump Announcement

November 15 & 16, 2022

Abigail Weinberg:
Extract:
But when Trump laid out his plans for how to “dismantle the Deep State and restore the government by the people,” he went beyond the usual calls to “drain the swamp.”
Instead, he promised a series of anti-corruption measures.
Trump said he would push for a constitutional amendment imposing term limits on members of Congress; a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of political campaigns; and a ban on “members of Congress getting rich by trading stocks with insider information.” If you read the comments out of context, you might have thought you were hearing from Elizabeth Warren.

If the final minutes of Trump’s speech were a reliable predictor of the points he’ll be hammering home on the campaign trail, we just might see a more toned-down Trump, with a commonsense reform message that will appeal to more than just his sycophantic right-wing fans.
I’m not sure which is scarier.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/ ... r-a-lago/

Russ Choma:
Introduction:
Donald Trump’s declaration that he’s running for president again in 2024 in some ways changes nothing—Trump has never really left campaign mode since his defeat and subsequent coup attempt, and he has continued to hold rallies and talk incessantly about the possibility of another term in the White House. But there are reasons that most presidential contenders don’t officially declare their candidacies so early in the race. Many presidential hopefuls actually go to outlandish lengths to avoid declaring themselves candidates.

There are, in fact, quite a few rules that come along with announcing an official bid—rules that require a lot of paperwork and restrict fundraising efforts. And perhaps most relevant to Trump, who is fending off legal actions against his business empire in New York, there are also rules that will require him to disclose his finances in great detail.

Here are three of the most significant consequences that Trump triggered when he made his latest campaign official:
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ald-trump/

caltrek’s comment: One of the things I wonder about here is the extent to which Trump will even bother to follow these rules. Trump being Trump, I can see a lot of very creative and unexpected ways to either evade these constraints, or simply lie in his submitted reporting documents.

Inae Oh:
Introduction::
A Loser Runs Again

Donald J. Trump, the twice-impeached former president who fomented an unprecedented attack on the US Capitol and has been at the center of a seemingly never-ending flood of lawsuits, investigations, and allegations (which he’s denied) of sexual misconduct—including rape—has officially announced his bid to recapture the presidency.

Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago residence, the Palm Beach club where reams of top secret, classified documents were allegedly uncovered by the FBI, Trump entered to “God Bless the USA” as the crowd held up their phones.

“America’s comeback starts right now,” Trump said.

The announcement has been something of a foregone conclusion. Whole swaths of Republican voters still treat Trump as their de facto leader, including powerful GOP lawmakers who have embraced his election lies. Reports indicate Trump has radical plans, including a potential evisceration of the federal bureaucracy if he were to win again.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... uncement/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by caltrek »

GOP Arkansas Governor Says he’s ‘Very Seriously’ Considering 2024 Presidential Bid
by Shawna Mizelle
November 17, 2022

Introduction:
Washington CNN — Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson is “very seriously” considering a 2024 presidential campaign, he told “CNN This Morning” on Thursday.

“Absolutely. I’m looking at it – looking at it very seriously. After the midterm elections, it’s more intense, and it’s an accelerated review, and after going to Iowa, I’m encouraged that a governor who’s actually solved problems, who has a conservative common sense approach, can draw support and can be a good alternative. So, I’m encouraged by it,” Hutchinson told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

Hutchinson also said that the midterm results weren’t a rejection of Republican values but “it was a rejection of specific candidates. They were not focused on the problems of Americans.” Hutchinson, whose gubernatorial term ends in January and is term-limited from seeking the office again, pointed to that month as a “decision point.”

The Republican governor’s comments come amid speculation about who – if anyone – will challenge former President Donald Trump, who formally announced his decision to launch another White House bid earlier this week. Trump’s campaign launch and his ability to lead the GOP has been met with internal strife and criticism following the losses of several Trump-endorsed election deniers during the midterm elections, and several notable Republicans – including former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – have hinted that they may challenge the once-undisputed Republican Party torch-bearer.

At a CNN town hall Wednesday night, Pence observed that candidates who talked about the future outshone those who focused more on “relitigating the past.”
Read more here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politic ... ndex.html
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by caltrek »

I had a tough time deciding which thread to post this in. I settled on this thread on the grounds that Governor DeSantis seems to be emerging as an early favorite for obtaining the Republican party nomination for president.

Citing Orwell, Judge Blocks 'Positively Dystopian' Censorship Law Backed by DeSantis
by Jake Johnson
November 17, 2022

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) In an order that begins by quoting the famous opening line of George Orwell's dystopian novel 1984, a federal judge on Thursday blocked key provisions of a Florida censorship law that aimed to restrict how state university professors teach race, gender, and U.S. history.

"'It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen,' and the powers in charge of Florida's public university system have declared the state has unfettered authority to muzzle its professors in the name of 'freedom,'" Judge Mark Walker of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida, an Obama appointee, wrote in his scathing decision, which temporarily halts enforcement of parts of the law championed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis—a possible 2024 presidential candidate.

"To confront certain viewpoints that offend the powers that be, the state of Florida passed the so-called 'Stop WOKE Act in 2022—redubbed (in line with the state's doublespeak) the 'Individual Freedom Act,'" Walker continued. "The law officially bans professors from expressing disfavored viewpoints in university classrooms while permitting unfettered expression of the opposite viewpoints. Defendants argue that, under this act, professors enjoy 'academic freedom' so long as they express only those viewpoints of which the State approves. This is positively dystopian."

The Thursday decision, which concludes that the GOP law violates the First Amendment rights of public university faculty and students, marks the second time Walker has ruled against the "Stop WOKE Act" in recent months. In August, the judge blocked the part of the law pertaining to private businesses.

Adriana Novoa, a University of South Florida history professor and a plaintiff in the case, said in a statement that Walker's Thursday ruling is a win "for the institutions of this country."
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... -desantis
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by caltrek »

Trump Is Now In—and It Would Be Foolish to Count Him Out
by Thomas Gist and Julie Noeman
November 18, 2022

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) Is Donald Trump's 2024 bid for the White House finished just as it's started? That seems to be the new conventional wisdom. After last Tuesday's "red wave" failed to materialize—with Trump-endorsed candidates and other election deniers losing winnable seats—many experts have been predicting Trump's inevitable crash-and-burn.

Such forecasts haven't come from just Trump's favorite target of ridicule—the liberal "mainstream media." For example, a headline from the conservative New York Post stated, "Trump voters are 'done' with ex-president: 'He needs to disappear.'" GOP strategist Karl Rove declared that, "[w]ith no red wave, Trump is out at sea."

For many commentators, the 2022 midterms point unmistakably to Trump's waning grip on the Republican Party. But is Trump really toast? Much as we wish otherwise, there's reason for doubt. Here are five post-election talking points about Trump that we think miss the mark.

The electorate has moderated

Democrats have celebrated the midterms as a "win for democracy" following the defeat of many MAGA candidates. The votes don't lie: Democrats won key gubernatorial contests against Trump-backed candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, and crucial Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.

Conclusion:
For all the talk of "this time is different," Trump won't go down without a fight. If he can paint DeSantis as the preferred candidate of "the establishment"—among donors, pundits and insiders—that will only re-energize (and radicalize) his base. Even Trump's ongoing legal battles may be a boon, as he can smear them as witch hunts. Those tactics might not win a general election—or they might. Either way, don't count Trump out.
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/202 ... t-him-out

caltrek’s comment: Portions of the article not cited above hint at something that makes Trump potentially dangerous. A lot of those elements of the so-called conservative “establishment” may very well end up preferring Trump in the general election should he manage to win the nomination. Much like what happened in 2016.

Polls may show DeSantis gaining a decisive advantage, but he may decide not to run given the threat posed by Trump to burn the house down. He may simply bide his time and preserve his prospect as the heir apparent for a 2028 race. At that point, Trump will be constitutionally barred from running again (assuming he wins in 2024). Even if he loses, his advanced age and growing legal problems may have finished him off by 2028.
I am not making any predictions, just painting different scenarios that sound plausible to me.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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Time_Traveller
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Location: Clermont, Indiana, USA, October 7th 2019 B.C.E

Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by Time_Traveller »

DeSantis Takes Massive Lead over Trump in 2024 Florida GOP Primary Poll
Governor Ron DeSantis leads former president Trump by 45 percentage points in a new poll of 2024 Florida Republican primary voters conducted in the wake of DeSantis’s landslide reelection.

Should DeSantis join Trump in announcing a 2024 bid, 66 percent of GOP voters in the Sunshine state would favor their governor, compared to 21 percent who remain loyal to the former president, according to a recent poll conducted by Sachs Media and presented in a newsletter produced by Florida Politics.

When asked who they trust more to be a good role model for young people, respondents chose DeSantis over Trump 89 percent to 4 percent. A significant 81 percent of participants said they have more faith in DeSantis to have a “moral foundation for choices.”

Over three quarters of respondents, 76 percent, believe DeSantis is more capable than Trump of uniting voters around a common cause. On diplomatic affairs, 68 percent of surveyed residents say DeSantis is more likely to be respected by other world leaders compared to 26 percent for Trump.
https://news.yahoo.com/desantis-leads-t ... 51699.html

Are these young people republicans?
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weatheriscool
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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weatheriscool
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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weatheriscool
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 46% (+18)
DeSantis 28%
Pence 7%
Cruz 3%
Haley 2%
Rubio 1%
Pompeo 1%
T. Scott 1%

.@Harvard-@HarrisPoll, 11/16-17https://t.co/VdFur9nghr
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 20, 2022
weatheriscool
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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