Indian State Elections Go The Modi Way, But Congress Makes A Dent In The South by P. K. Balachandran
December 4, 2023
Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), whose mascot is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has won in three of the five States which went to the polls on different days in November.
The results of all elections, except the one held in Mizoram, were announced on Sunday. Counting of votes in Mizoram will take place on Monday.
The States in which the BJP won are: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, all in North India and all Hindi-speaking. The BJP has always been strong in what is called the “Hindi belt” (or “cow belt” as it is largely agricultural and culturally conservative).
As per the past pattern, the BJP lost in the South Indian State of Telangana, where the language is Telugu. In Telangana. the Congress wrested the government from a regional party Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS).
In a State election held earlier in 2023, another South Indian State, Karnataka, had gone to the Congress. So, the entire South Indian region is a non-BJP area. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, which are also in South India, are ruled by regional parties. And Kerala is under the Communists.
Analysing India’s Shifting Economic Landscape by Soumya Bhowmick
December 6, 2023
Introduction:
(Observer Research Foundation) With a GDP growth rate of 7.8 percent in Q1 of FY23-24 ( the fastest growing nation in the G20), India is expected to surpass its US$ 5 trillion economy goal by 2026-27. The country stands at a pivotal juncture in its economic evolution, where a dynamic interplay of factors reshapes its economic landscape and demographic structure.
Several key factors mark India's current economic scenario. With respect to GDP growth, projections from the Economic Survey 2022-23 indicate that India is expected to experience growth ranging from 6.0 percent to 6.8 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24, with a baseline GDP growth of 6.5 percent in real terms. However, inflation has been a persistent concern in India's economy. Efforts to manage inflation have been evident in recent fiscal and monetary policies, including the central bank's rise in key interest rates in 2022 to control inflation. India has also been actively implementing fiscal policies to address economic challenges.
The manufacturing sector holds the promise of integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs) but faces the challenge of balancing scale with labour requirements. In this context, it is imperative to explore how India can leverage these opportunities and address the associated challenges to ensure sustainable economic growth and increased employment opportunities for its burgeoning population.
The service sector in India, while employing a lower percentage of the population compared to its East Asian counterparts, has been consistently contributing to the national Gross Value Added (GVA). The construction industry, too, has shown remarkable promise in the industrial sector, with its workforce steadily expanding over the past two decades. The banking sector, employing 1.6 million individuals, sees a significant portion (49.1 percent) working in the public sector. Furthermore, the emergence of gig workers, currently constituting 1.5 percent of the workforce, is expected to increase their contribution to total employment to 4.1 percent by 2029-30.
Myanmar’s Civil War Blowing Up India’s Act East Policy by Kalinga Seneviratne
December 11, 2023
Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 2014, India has accelerated its ‘Act East Policy’ (AEP) to link more closely with its Southeast Asian neighbours to consolidate its geo-political power through trade and infrastructure development that reflects China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But, with civil war in neighbouring Myanmar spilling over the porous 400km long border into India’s north-east state of Manipur, it has seriously hampered this policy.
The 30-month-old civil war in Myanmar is fanning ethnic conflict in Manipur. Majority Meitei and minority Kuki communities in the state have clashed with each other since early May, leaving more than 150 dead and thousands displaced.
On 4 December, India’s oldest paramilitary force—Assam Riffles[1]—was rushed to a border area in Manipur where 13 dead bodies of men were found, and a major investigation has been launched to find the culprits.
During a no-confidence motion in India’s parliament in New Delhi in August over the government’s handling of the Manipur conflict, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the violence was triggered by an influx of Kukis from Myanmar into Manipur, which “created insecurities among Meiteis”.
The Meitei community, who make up a little more than half of the state’s 3.2 million population, is mainly confined to around 10 per cent of Manipur’s area in the valley districts surrounding the state capital Imphal. The remaining population—mostly from the tribal Kuki and Naga communities—inhabits the hilly terrain covering 90 per cent of the state.
[1] Assam Rifles is one of six central armed police forces under the Ministry of Home Affairs. It safeguards Northeastern regions and the Indo-Myanmar border and assists the Indian Army in maintaining law and order.
Stalled Progress Toward Eliminating Child Marriage in India December 15, 2023
Introduction:
(Eurkealert) Key points:
• Using national data between 1993 and 2021, researchers observed that India’s national prevalence of child marriage—defined by the study as marriage before age 18—declined throughout the study period.
• The decade between 2006 and 2016 saw the largest magnitude of reduction in child marriage, while the years between 2016 and 2021 saw the smallest. During these latter years, six Indian states/union territories saw increases in the prevalence of girl child marriage and eight saw increases in boy child marriage.
• The study is among the first to examine how the prevalence of child marriage has changed over time at a state/union territory level.
Boston, MA—Child marriage has declined in India—but across the country, one in five girls and nearly one in six boys are still married as children, and in recent years the practice has become more prevalent in some states/union territories, according to a new study led by researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Child marriage is a human rights violation and a recognized form of gender- and sexual-based violence. India’s success in reaching zero child marriage is critical to achieving United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 5.3.
The Evolving Role of the Colombo Security Conclave by Professor Harsh V. Pant and Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy
December 26, 2023
Introduction:
(Observer Research Foundation) In early December, India’s National Security Adviser (NSA), Ajit Doval, took part in the sixth NSA meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). The meeting reviewed the developments and progress made by the CSC in the last year and agreed upon a road map for the year 2024 to promote a safe, secure, and stable Indian Ocean. The meeting also included member-states, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, and observer-states, Bangladesh and Seychelles. The Maldives, now under a new dispensation, was the only member-state that was absent, underscoring the impact of domestic politics over regional collaboration. It is imperative for India to continue pushing for a proactive CSC to address the challenges in the Indian Ocean.
Changing dynamics
The CSC underscores the evolving dynamics of the Indian Ocean. The organisation came into its own in 2011, with Sri Lanka joining India and the Maldives for a trilateral maritime security grouping but came to a standstill after 2014 due to rising tensions between India and the Maldives. In 2020, India not only pushed for the revival and institutionalisation of the organisation but also expressed interest in expanding the CSC to Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Bangladesh. The push for the CSC demonstrates India’s evolving strategic vision for the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean is at the heart of an evolving multipolar world today, with extra-regional powers competing to make inroads in the region. This competition will further increase as the Indo-Pacific’s importance grows.
For India, a traditional power in the region, the CSC offers an opportunity to strengthen its leadership and security architecture. Since its independence, India has played an increasing role in promoting security in the Indian Ocean. The lack of capacity of island nations to secure the seas and counter transnational threats has continued to motivate India to assist them in defence and security-related capacity building, infrastructure development, and equipment provision. India has also played a vital role as the first responder in the region, be it to avert coups or to offer humanitarian and economic assistance during COVID-19 and multi-faceted crises. The CSC offers India an opportunity to institutionalise its role, shape the regional security architecture, and better address the existing and emerging threats.
Amnesty Details 'Shocking' Allegations of India Targeting Reporters with Pegasus Spyware by Julia Conley
December 28, 2023
Introduction:
(Common Dreams) Amnesty International on Thursday demanded transparency from the Indian government regarding its contracts with surveillance companies, including the Israeli firm NSO Group, after the rights organization joined The Washington Post in publishing what it called "shocking new details" about the use of spyware to target journalists in India.
Amnesty's Security Lab revealed that a round of "state-sponsored attacker" notifications that were sent to Apple customers in October by the tech company went to more than 20 Indian journalists including Siddharth Varadarajan, founding editor of The Wire, and Anand Mangnale, South Asia editor at the Organized Crime and Corruption Report Project (OCCRP).
The Security Lab ran a forensic analysis of the two reporters' devices and found evidence that the NSO Group's highly invasive Pegasus spyware, which is capable of eavesdropping on phone calls and harvesting data, had been installed on phones owned by Varadarajan and Mangnale.
In Mangnale's case, the journalist appeared to have received a "zero-click exploit" via iMessage on August 23, allowing the individual or group who sent it to covertly install Pegasus spyware on his phone without requiring Mangnale to take any action, such as clicking a link.
At the time of the attempted attack, said Amnesty, Mangnale was working on a story about alleged stock manipulation by a major Indian multinational firm with ties to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The journalist told Agence France Presse that his phone was targeted "within hours" of his sending interview questions to the company.
Bangladesh: Awami League Wins Elections Boycotted By Opposition January 8, 2024
Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party will return to power for an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in Bangladesh after being declared the winner of Sunday’s general election, which drew a low turnout amid an opposition boycott.
Early Monday (local time), preliminary results released by the Election Commission showed that the Awami League had won at least 222 out of 300 parliamentary seats, enough to form a super majority and again govern the South Asian nation of 170 million people.
With more than 294 seats declared, the Jatiya Party – an ally of the ruling party and the only other notable party contesting the election – won only 11, while independent candidates aligned with the Awami League secured victories in 61 parliamentary constituencies.
The result effectively rubber-stamped an outcome that had been predicted long before, after the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies declared they were boycotting the country’s 12th general election. Thiers was an act of protest against Hasina’s refusal to give in to their demand that she step aside to allow a neutral caretaker administration to oversee the election.
India’s Response to the Influx of Myanmar Refugees by Dr. Bibhu Prasad Routray
January 11, 2024
Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) Refugees are an inevitable consequence of conflict, and countries exposed by position or policy rarely escape the collateral damage of war. India is no exception. Strange then, given the long history of refugee movement from neighbouring states, that the best New Delhi has come up with in terms of the policy is an anti-refugee stance, especially regarding the Rohingya refugees and the Kuki-Chin-Zo tribes people from Myanmar. However, that position has faced multiple challenges from the population in the states, who live along the international border.
Anti-Rohingya Operations
On 20 December, the Jammu and Kashmir police launched a major crackdown in five Jammu districts (Jammu, Doda, Kishtwar, Poonch and Rajouri) against people allegedly providing shelter to Rohingya refugees from Myanmar or helping them get government documents. Nearly 40 people were picked up for questioning, following which some were arrested. Since 2021, the local leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been at the forefront of anti-Rohingya agitation, forcing the police to undertake such periodic raids. This hasn’t led to a decrease in the number of Rohingya in these districts, but it has subjected them to regular harassment.
Similar drives against the Rohingya, deemed as ‘illegal foreigners,’ have taken place in other states as well. While rights organisations have described these measures as further victimizing those already victims, the poor refugees, several accounts have sought to paint them as threats to national security, being supposedly terrorist sympathisers and criminals. In November 2023, the Union Home Minister praised the Prime Minister for stopping Rohingya refugees from entering India. This is strange because thousands of ‘illegal’ Rohingya still reside in the country, and on one instance of possible bureaucratic lapse, the government had decided to move some of them to officially constructed apartments in the national capital, Delhi. Nevertheless, the government’s public policy remains opposed to their presence.
The Indian Coast Guard on 24 December 2023 rescued 142 Rohingya refugees, including 47 women and 59 minors, from the sea near Shaheed Dweep (also known as Neil Island) as they travelled perilously on a boat from Bangladesh to Indonesia.
Parliament, CAG, EC: More Pillars Crumble as Modi Tightens Hold by P. Raman and Anand K. Sahay
December 31, 2013
Introduction:
(Janata Weekly) It is really a bad time for the Indian democracy. The year 2023 witnessed the Modi establishment extending its control on democratic institutions like the Election Commission and CAG. Indian parliament looks more like Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Grand National Assembly.
Let’s begin with the subjugation of Bharatiya Janata Party organisation. The electoral victory in Hindi hinterland has put Modi in a triumphalist mood. The process of centralisation and bureaucratisation of the organisation is now complete. Chief ministers are fixed at will by Amit Shah on the advice of internal experts. This time, even the formalities like the parliamentary board’s endorsement and central observers’s report have been done away with.
Instead, the central observers carried a sealed cover which contained the name of the high commands choice for the chief ministership. And the observers respectfully opened it and declared the winner. The sealed cover is a symbol of authority which every one in the party must accept without grudge.
Gone are the days when those those enjoying maximum support among the elected MLAs should take the cake. The GenX BJP CMs are not answerable to MLAs or their electors but high command. No one else. Amit Shah’s trust is most crucial. Otherwise you lose the job within weeks. That is the story that Tirat Singh Rawat’s four-month tenure as Uttarakhand’s CM tells us.
Conclusion:
In sum, there is no obstacle to the abuse of authority. Narendra Modi has accomplished all this in less than two terms – ten years – and is now hoping to return to power in the 2024 elections. If he succeeds, there will be no more pillars left to crumble.
