Food Price Watch Thread

[wjfox]

This is worrying. Food price rises are a major driver of social unrest.

Could we be heading for another period of turmoil like we saw in 2008-2011?

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UN: Cost of food rises at fastest pace in over a decade

2 days ago

Global food prices have jumped at their fastest monthly rate in over a decade, according to the United Nations.

The UN uses a broad index of global food costs, which have also climbed for 12 months in a row.

Suppliers have been affected by disruptions to production, labour and transport during the pandemic.

Concerns are growing about broader inflation and how higher grocery bills will impact the world's economic recovery.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index tracks prices around the world of a range of food including cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar.

According to the index, food prices in May were 4.8% higher than April - the biggest monthly rise since October 2010 - and 39.7% higher than this time last year (May 2020).

All five components of the index rose, led by the surging cost of vegetable oils, grain and sugar.

That pushed the index up to its highest overall level since September 2011.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57353624

[wjfox]

This could be disastrous in terms of geopolitical stability.

Even a rise of 10% would be bad. But some commodities are pushing nearly 20%...

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Global food prices rise to highest ever levels after Russian invasion

Fri 8 Apr 2022 13.40 BST

Global food prices rose to their highest ever levels in March as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UN has reported.

Cooking oils, cereals and meats hit all-time highs and meant food commodities cost a third more than the same time last year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index published on Friday.

The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted Black Sea exports of crucial commodities from a region that had been producing more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports.

The war has helped push cereal prices up 17% over the past month with the closure of ports throttling wheat and maize exports from Ukraine. Russian exports have also been slowed by financial and shipping problems.

World wheat prices soared by 19.7% during March, while maize prices posted a 19.1% month-on-month increase, hitting a record high along with those of barley and sorghum.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... aine-wheat

[caltrek]

This reminds me of my future of foods thread. They were (and are) also animated, in part, by my concern over the issue of hunger. In those threads, various alternatives were identified both in items of potential future consumption and in ways of increasing production.

Like so many things, the Ukraine war has heightened the sense of crisis surrounding this issue. The problem is not that there is a lack of alternatives, there are plenty. The crisis is in the potential immediacy of the problem. People need to eat NOW. They cannot wait nine months while new crops are planted in the ground, or new alternatives such as insects are fully developed as a viable alternative food source.

It has been a rather constant theme of mine that city folk need to better understand the political culture of country folk. The potential for mass famine underlines that point. By coincidence, I have been half-heartedly trying to study the depression of the 1930s. One of the themes that constantly re-emerges is the manner in which the agricultural sector suffered in the 1920's, even as life was basically a ball in the roaring twenties of our urban landscape. As a nation, we ignored the problems that were developing in the agricultural sector prior to the depression, and then paid a price.

We complain, quite rightly in some respects, of the inequality of the electoral college system. Yet, that very system ought to force us to pay closer attention to rural problems. As it is, city folks simply don't understand the country, and country folk don't understand the city. A recipe for disaster.

Urban gardening is nice not only because it increases the food basket, but also because it reconnects people back to nature, especially that part of nature that provides our food. As such, it has been a step in the right direction. One wonders, is it a question of too little, too late?

Edit: The word "consumption" was deleted and replaced with "production" to reflect my original intent. The word "sector" was added.

[Nanotechandmorefuture]

This is worrying. Food price rises are a major driver of social unrest.

Could we be heading for another period of turmoil like we saw in 2008-2011?

-----

UN: Cost of food rises at fastest pace in over a decade

2 days ago

Global food prices have jumped at their fastest monthly rate in over a decade, according to the United Nations.

The UN uses a broad index of global food costs, which have also climbed for 12 months in a row.

Suppliers have been affected by disruptions to production, labour and transport during the pandemic.

Concerns are growing about broader inflation and how higher grocery bills will impact the world's economic recovery.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index tracks prices around the world of a range of food including cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar.

According to the index, food prices in May were 4.8% higher than April - the biggest monthly rise since October 2010 - and 39.7% higher than this time last year (May 2020).

All five components of the index rose, led by the surging cost of vegetable oils, grain and sugar.

That pushed the index up to its highest overall level since September 2011.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57353624

I sure hope not! I remember those times and they sucked!

[caltrek]

Denmark Decries EU Decision to Till Fallow Lands in Face of Food Shortage
by Mie Olsen
April 8, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/denmark- ... -shortage/

Introduction:

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (Courthouse News) — This past month, European agriculture officials agreed to let farmers grow food and sow crops on their fallow lands. The decision clashes with the new agricultural reform 2023-2027, which calls for a mandatory 4% increase in unused farmland.

The EU justified the decision as necessary to counter the prospect of a food supply crisis catalyzed by Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine export over a quarter of the world´s wheat, and the former is a major global supplier of fertilizer.

In addition, the war has caused a sharp spike in already volatile energy prices, which have tripled for many European households and companies.

While the European Commission states that “food availability is not currently at stake in the EU,” the primary concern is soaring production costs for European farmers and — perhaps more importantly — the inability to export enough food to North Africa and the Middle East.

Allowing farmers to use land that has been ordered fallowed to improve biodiversity — an “exceptional and temporary derogation,” according to EU agriculture officials — is seen as a necessary force majeure measure. Yet Rasmus Prehn, Denmark’s minister for food and agriculture, called it “old-school” and “contra-intuitive” after meeting his colleagues in Brussels.

[weatheriscool]

White House says it expects inflation to be 'extraordinarily elevated' in new report
Source: CNBC

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is bracing for Tuesday’s key consumer inflation report to show that the prices Americans pay soared in March, as Russia’s assault on Ukraine caused energy prices to jump.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that the Labor Department’s previous report – which showed prices rising at a dramatic rate in February – failed to include the majority of the jump in oil and gas costs caused by the Kremlin’s unprovoked invasion.

“We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin’s price hike,” Psaki told reporters.

“We expect a large difference between core and headline inflation,” she continued, “reflecting the global disruptions in energy and food markets.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/inflati ... eport.html

[Yuli Ban]

Wouldn't be surprised if there's another stimulus check. Between this and gas prices, I mean.

[caltrek]

Wouldn't be surprised if there's another stimulus check. Between this and gas prices, I mean.

No, Senator Manchin is too worried that you will use the money to take a drag on a marijuana cigarette.

[Nanotechandmorefuture]

Wouldn't be surprised if there's another stimulus check. Between this and gas prices, I mean.

No, Senator Manchin is too worried that you will use the money to take a drag on a marijuana cigarette.

Those jazz cigarettes may help ease things. It wouldn't matter who makes em business wise it would just calm everything down because right now the environment is antsy.

[caltrek]

^^^Quoted in Yes, I am Just Joking thread.

[weatheriscool]

Inflation rises by the most since 1981 as CPI jumps 8.5% in March

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Tue, April 12, 2022, 8:32 AM · 2 min read

U.S. consumer price increases quickened in March, underscoring ongoing inflationary pressures as supply chain disruptions and shortages lingered across the economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% in March compared to the same month last year, according to the latest report released Tuesday. That marked the fastest rise since December 1981. This followed a 7.9% annual increase in February. Heading into the report, consensus economists were looking for an 8.4% jump for March, according to Bloomberg data.

On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 1.2% in March following a 0.8% monthly rise in February.

Some of the biggest contributors to the latest increase in inflation were food, shelter and gasoline, according to the BLS. In fact, the index tracking gas prices rose 18.3% in March, comprising more than half of the total monthly increase in CPI. ... But even excluding more volatile food and energy prices, the CPI also posted a marked move higher in March. The core CPI jumped 6.5% in March over last year, accelerating from a 6.4% increase in February.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer ... 02319.html

[weatheriscool]

Producer prices rose 11.2% from a year ago in March, the biggest gain on record

PUBLISHED WED, APR 13 2022 8:32 AM EDT * UPDATED 1 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528

@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom[quote]

The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The producer price index, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers, increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge increased 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate.

Stripping out food, energy and trade services, so-called core PPI rose 0.9% on a monthly basis, nearly double the 0.5% estimate and the biggest monthly gain since January 2021. Core PPI increased 7% on a year-over-year basis.

PPI is considered a forward-looking inflation measure as it tracks prices in the pipeline for goods and services that eventually reach consumers. ... Wednesday's release comes the day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index for March surged 8.5% over the past year, above expectations and the highest reading since December 1981.[/quote]


Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/produce ... 2022-.html

[caltrek]

^^^Interesting approach to include a Facebook, Twitter and CNBC link.

[wjfox]

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years - World Bank

By Jonathan Josephs
50 minutes ago

The war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s, the World Bank has warned.

In a new forecast, it said disruption caused by the conflict would contribute to huge price rises for goods ranging from natural gas to wheat and cotton.

The increase in prices "is starting to have very large economic and humanitarian effects", Peter Nagle, a co-author of the report, told the BBC.

He said "households across the world are feeling the cost of living crisis".

"We're particularly worried about the poorest households since they spend a larger share of income on food and energy, so they're particularly vulnerable to this price spike," the senior economist at the World Bank added.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61235528

[weatheriscool]

Corn and Soybeans Near Record Prices, Push Food Costs Higher

Ukraine war, drought in South America and biofuel demand pressure supplies of the crops

By Ryan Dezember

Corn and soybeans prices have risen nearly to records, signaling higher food inflation to come.

Global food prices had already reached records when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and jeopardized big slices of the world’s grain and oilseed supplies. Poor harvests in South America, inclement planting weather in the U.S. and rising biofuel demand threaten to stretch inventories even thinner and push prices higher.

Already a WSJ member? Sign in

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/corn-and-s ... 1651092056

[SerethiaFalcon]

I know this is more about worldwide food supply, but I just had a random thought about if food prices were to rise significantly in the US. Tonight, I was just reading an article from the Atlantic about how the drug scene has changed in the US. We have been so focused on the opioid crisis, and then the pandemic, while completely ignoring the fact that we have definitely now entered a very dangerous age worldwide and in the US as well of synthetic drugs. While these aren't new, the methods being employed are new, and the effects are becoming quite bad. Meth especially has shifted from plant-based to synthetic based, and it has been perfected in production to such a degree that much more is produced with a much more powerful effect. A lot of the homelessness problems in the US today are caused by this new form of Meth. Effects of the old Meth used to take years and appear as more of a decaying effect, now it escalates very quickly so that by a year, people in their thirties and forties are experiencing psychosis and schizophrenic symptoms for the first time. These are not due to normal mental health problems but due to the effects of this new kind of Meth on the brain. It also doesn't kill people fast, but it does deteriorate their condition faster, so that they are in a really bad state of mind, having paranoia, conspiracies, violent disruptive thoughts, etc. So, if the food prices do rise, and since this condition has no effective treatment and is quite challenging for getting people out of, I expect the situation will only become direr, not only in the US, but I suspect in other places too. Anyway, here is the article. Quite fascinating and terrifying at the same time. I mean, a sizable portion of the US is quite literally going mad, no joke. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... th/620174/

[caltrek]

World Hunger Doubled in the Five Years Before Ukraine's Breadbasket Was Hit by War
by Layla Maghribi

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/u ... it-by-war/

Introduction:

(The National) Conflict, climate change and Covid-19 have pushed the number of people facing severe food insecurity to “devastating” highs, a UN study has shown.

The Global Network Against Food Crises said in its annual report that the number of people facing acute food insecurity and requiring urgent, life-saving assistance had risen to 193 million in 2021, nearly double the number in 2016 when the agency first began tracking it.

The latest figures represent an increase of nearly 25 per cent — 38 million people — in the past 12 months, compared with the already record numbers of 2020.

“The outlook moving forward is not good. If more is not done to support rural communities, the scale of the devastation in terms of hunger and lost livelihoods will be appalling,” warns the report.

Launched at a virtual roundtable on Wednesday, contributors to the multi-agency study said that the war in Ukraine and its knock-on effects indicated that, without intervention, the worst is still to come.

[caltrek]

Heatwave Hitting India and Pakistan Devastates Crops
by Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shah Meer Baloch
May 4, 2022

https://www.motherjones.com/environment ... -pakistan/

Extract:

(Mother Jones) For the past few weeks, Nazeer Ahmed has been living in one of the hottest places on Earth. As a brutal heatwave has swept across India and Pakistan, his home in Turbat, in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, has been suffering through weeks of temperatures that have repeatedly hit almost 50C (122F), unprecedented for this time of year.
…
The heatwave has already had a devastating impact on crops, including wheat and various fruits and vegetables. In India, the yield from wheat crops has dropped by up to 50 percent in some of the areas worst hit by the extreme temperatures, worsening fears of global shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has already had a devastating impact on supplies.

In Balochistan’s Mastung district, known for its apple and peach orchards, the harvests have been decimated. Haji Ghulam Sarwar Shahwani, a farmer, watched in anguish as his apple trees blossomed more than a month early, and then despair as the blossom sizzled and then died in the unseasonal dry heat, almost killing off his entire crop. Farmers in the area also spoke of a “drastic” impact on their wheat crops, while the area has also recently been subjected to 18-hour power cuts.

“This is the first time the weather has wreaked such havoc on our crops in this area,” Shahwani said. “We don’t know what to do and there is no government help. The cultivation has decreased; now very few fruits grow. Farmers have lost billions because of this weather. We are suffering and we can’t afford it.”

[weatheriscool]

CPI for all items rises 0.3% in April; shelter, food, airfare indexes rise


CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - APRIL 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a
seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before
seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest
contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.9 percent over
the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent. The energy index declined in April after
rising in recent months. The index for gasoline fell 6.1 percent over the month, offsetting
increases in the indexes for natural gas and electricity.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in April following a 0.3-percent
advance in March. Along with indexes for shelter, airline fares, and new vehicles, the indexes
for medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April.
The indexes for apparel, communication, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month.

The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase
than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March. The all items less food and energy
index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last
year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period
ending April 1981.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[funkervogt]

India's government has banned the export of wheat due to fears of supply shortages. If the Ukraine War continues, I predict a global food shortage this winter of the sort we haven't seen in our lifetimes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... urity-risk