Food Price Watch Thread

weatheriscool
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UK inflation exceeds 10% as bread and milk prices soar

By Mark Thompson, CNN Business

Updated 5:27 AM ET, Wed August 17, 2022
(CNN Business) -- Inflation in the United Kingdom hit a new 40-year high last month, rising above 10% for the first time since 1982 and piling further pain on households already struggling to pay their bills.

Annual consumer price inflation hit 10.1% in July, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday, up from 9.4% in June. Soaring food prices — up 12.7% since July 2021 — were the largest single contributor to the acceleration in inflation, the ONS said.

The headline inflation number was higher than predicted by a Reuters poll of economists, and food inflation is now running at its highest level in 14 years. ... "All the eleven food and non-alcoholic beverage classes made upward contributions to the change in the annual inflation rate, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago," the ONS said.

The largest upward contributions came from bread and cereals, and from milk, cheese and eggs, with notable price increases in cheddar cheese and yoghurts. ... On a monthly basis, the consumer price index was up 0.6% in July, compared with no change a year ago. Higher gasoline and diesel prices, together with rising air fares, were also to blame, the ONS added.
{snip}

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/economy/ ... index.html
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Food Price Increases and Inflation in the U.S.
by Abby Vesoulis and Hannah Levintova
August 19, 2022

Extract:
(Mother Jones) The Ukraine-Russia conflict plays an outsized role in the grocery hikes. Together, the countries are normally responsible for more than half of the world's vegetable oil exports and more than a third of the global wheat supply, but exports have fallen steadily due to the war. Sanctions against Russia have also impacted the supply chain, collectively culminating in food price increases across the globe.

Additionally, Brazil produces at least four-fifth's of the world's orange juice and a third of its soy, sugar, and coffee—in normal weather conditions. The past few years have been anything but: Last year, the country's southern region faced its worst drought in a century, while its north has seen an increase in disease due to too much rain. These weather conditions have consequences. Between April 2020 and December 2021, the global price for soybeans jumped more than 50 percent, while coffee beans surged more 70 percent, according to a February New York Times analysis.

If weather and war are causes of inflation, the companies themselves might be part of the problem too. The price of meat, poultry, and eggs has increased 10.9 percent since July 2021. Like other industries, meat processors have also faced supply chain and labor struggles, but there is also evidence some are raising prices far above their increased costs. Tyson, one of the world's largest meat processors, estimated in the second quarter of 2022 that it responded to a $1.5 billion operating cost increases by raising prices roughly $2 billion. Tyson's 12-month gross profit margin is 15.6 percent, according to market research platform Finbox, while its median gross profit margin for fiscal years 2017-2021 were 13.4 percent.

Grocery stores themselves are holding fairly steady profit margins despite the sticker shock you're experiencing at checkout lines.

The 12-month gross profit margin average at Kroger Co., which also owns grocery chains King Soopers and Harris Teeter, is 22.4 percent, slightly below its 22.8 percent median gross profit margin between fiscal years ending February 2018 to 2022.
The article also discusses rising prices of gas, electricity, airfare, dining out, new cars, and housing rentals.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... xpensive/
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New Roots of Famine
August 18, 2022

Introduction:
(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Radio Ergo, a news outlet that focuses on humanitarian news in the Horn of Africa, recently reported on the plight of Hawo Adan Shuriye, a widow with nine children in central Somalia’s Galgadud region. She was forced from her home by conflict between the Somali national army and the paramilitary forces of Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a.

According to the radio station, Hawo lost dozens of goats during a skirmish last year. She had previously collected two containers of milk daily from her goats, worth about three dollars. “You can see we are sheltering under trees that we have wrapped up with clothes. We have no proper shelter here, no food. We have no one else except Allah,” she told Radio Ergo. “What I am now left with are four goats. I looked for the lost goats for about a month, but I have now lost hope of getting them back,” she told Radio Ergo.

Hawo is one of many thousands. The ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa—which scientists say has been intensified by climate change—has led to an extraordinary humanitarian crisis as large areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia teeter on the brink of famine. But the drought is only partly to blame for the suffering. Two other significant threats are contributing to the likelihood of famine: food shortages caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and regional and insurgent conflict preventing aid from reaching those most in need. Meanwhile, large numbers of people have been forced—by failed crops and war—to migrate, creating hygiene and water problems that have led to serious disease outbreaks.
Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/how-cl ... t-heading
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Harvard and University of Washington Study Concludes Pandemic Federal Programs Helped Kids in Need Get Access to 1.5 Billion Meals Every Month
September 9, 2022

Conclusion:
(EurekAlert) Based on your findings, what should Congress do for kids?

Krieger: Our study offers evidence that these components of the proposed act — an EBT (Electronic Benefit Transfer) program to distribute the value of school meals, similar to the proposed summer-EBT program, combined with expanded distribution of meals in the community, similar to the expanded summer meals program— were effective in feeding millions of children when schools were closed due to COVID and suggests that they will also likely be effective in delivering food to children during school summer recess. Including both programs in the act would help to assure food access when schools are closed during summer breaks.

Kenney: An important takeaway from our study that may be relevant for the conversation about the Healthy Meals, Healthy Kids Act is that these should be considered together, as a two-pronged strategy. The two approaches complement one another: P-EBT can help make sure that at least the cash value of those missed meals can get out to low-income families efficiently, and grab-and-go meals can ensure that families who may be struggling but may not have a low-enough income to qualify for P-EBT can still get meals. They can also ensure that families who may have more difficulty preparing food — like families experiencing homelessness or with limited kitchen facilities, or even just with limited time — can access nutritionally adequate meals.

What else should Congress consider?

Krieger: The federal government should be investigating strategies for optimizing the cost-effectiveness of grab-and-go school meals. It should also expand the P-EBT program or its equivalent to cover 60 meals per month instead of 40 to match the grab-and-go school meals benefit level. And, it should work to optimize the nutritional quality of the foods provided.
quote]Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/964338
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Food Price Index Drops for the Fifth Consecutive Month in August
September 2, 2022

Introduction:
(Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations ) FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016. A feature article published in the June 2020 edition of the Food Outlook presents the revision of the base period for the calculation of the FFPI and the expansion of its price coverage, to be introduced from July 2020. A November 2013 article contains technical background on the previous construction of the FFPI.(See link below for further links regarding the referenced articles).

Monthly release dates for 2022: 6 January, 3 February, 4 March, 8 April, 6 May, 3 June, 8 July, 5 August, 2 September, 7 October, 4 November, 2 December.

FAO Food Price Index drops for the fifth consecutive month in August

» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 138.0 points in August 2022, down 2.7 points (1.9 percent) from July, registering its fifth consecutive monthly decline. Despite the latest drop, the index remained 10.1 points (7.9 percent) above its value a year ago. All the five sub-indices of the FFPI fell moderately in August, with monthly percentage declines ranging from 1.4 percent for cereals to 3.3 percent for vegetable oils.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 145.2 points in August, down 2.0 points (1.4 percent) from July, but still 14.8 points (11.4 percent) above its August 2021 value. In August, international wheat prices fell by 5.1 percent, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, driven by improved production prospects, especially in Canada, the United States of America and the Russian Federation, and higher seasonal availability as harvests continued in the northern hemisphere as well as the resumption of exports from the Black Sea ports in Ukraine for the first time in over five months of interruption. Nevertheless, global wheat prices remained 10.6 percent above their values in August last year. International prices of coarse grains increased marginally (+0.2 percent) in August and averaged 12.4 percent above their values a year ago. World maize prices firmed slightly, up 1.5 percent, largely influenced by lower production prospects in the European Union and the United States of America due to hot, dry conditions, while the resumption of exports from Ukraine prevented prices from increasing further. By contrast, global barley and sorghum prices decreased by 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The FAO All Rice Price Index held steady in August, as slight declines in quotations of the most widely traded Indica varieties compensated for mild price gains in other rice market segments.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 163.3 points in August, down 5.5 points (3.3 percent) month-on-month, pushing the index value slightly below its year-earlier level. The continued decline of the index was driven by lower world prices of palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils, which more than offset higher soyoil quotations. International palm oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, driven by increasing export availabilities from Indonesia, mainly thanks to lower export taxes, as well as seasonally rising outputs in Southeast Asia. In the meantime, world sunflower oil values declined on lingering subdued global import demand that coincided with the gradual resumption of shipments from Ukraine’s seaports. International quotations for rapeseed oil also dropped in August, due to prospects of ample supplies for the upcoming 2022/23 season. By contrast, world soyoil prices rebounded only moderately, mainly because of concerns over the impact of unfavourable weather conditions on soybean production in the United States of America.
Read more here: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation ... index/en/
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Crop Disruption from War in Ukraine Could Increase Global Carbon Emissions and Food Prices
September 19, 2022

Introduction:
( EurekAlert) INDIANAPOLIS -- The disruption of crop production after the Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to increase carbon emissions and food prices across the globe, without easing food insecurity.

New research published this week from Jerome Dumortier, associate professor in the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IUPUI, and his co-authors, uses economic simulation models to predict the short-term and long-term effects of the war on climate change, crop prices and food shortages.

The study found that the war's impact on crop production and exports in Ukraine and Russia will continue to increase the world's food prices and food insecurity, but not as much as initially feared -- largely because other countries have stepped up their production. Researchers estimate we may see corn and wheat prices increasing by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. They also considered the prices of crops like barley, rice, soybeans, sunflower and wheat, which are predicted to increase.

Nations already facing significant food insecurity will be impacted most, they predict.

"There was a lot of worry about food insecurity globally when the war first started in Ukraine," Dumortier said. "Our research shows while this will continue to impact the global supply chain, the effects on food shortages won't be as bad as we initially thought. Much of that is because other countries have started to produce those crops and exports to make up for what Ukraine has not been sending out."
Read more of the EurekAlert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/965194

For the Nature Food article that presents the research findings: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00600-0
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Why Food Keeps Getting More Expensive
by Madeleine Ngo
October 13, 2022

Introduction:
(Vox) Rising inflation continues to strain American households, and stubbornly high prices have been especially evident for shoppers at the grocery store.

A jump in inflation in September was partly fueled by rising food prices, according to a Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday. Overall inflation rose 8.2 percent from a year ago, driven by gains in food, rent, and medical care costs.

In September, food prices rose 11.2 percent compared to a year ago and 0.8 percent from the month before. Everything from meat and cereal to fruits and vegetables grew more expensive. Food prices at restaurants also climbed 0.9 percent from the month before, while food at home increased 0.7 percent.

Food has become more expensive for a range of reasons. Increased gas prices and labor shortages have driven up costs for businesses. The war in Ukraine has disrupted exports of wheat, sunflower oil, and other produce, straining the global food supply and pushing up prices. And climate-related issues, such as a drought in the Western portion of the United States, have lowered crop yields.

“Spikes in costs due to labor, production disruptions, transportation demands, and global conflict are affecting every aspect of the food business,” Andrew Harig, the vice president of tax, trade, sustainability, and policy development at The Food Industry Association (FMI), said in a statement after the CPI report’s release. “Today’s numbers make it clear that there is still work to be done to address these issues.”
Read more here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politic ... pi-prices
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Americans are Buying Less at the Supermarket
by Emily Peck
October 18, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) Americans are buying fewer items at the grocery store, as food prices surge, a new survey finds.

Why it matters: We're at a turning point when it comes to food shopping. For a while, inflation was mainly changing what types of items consumers bought — more generics, and different cuts of meat.

• Now Americans are starting to simply buy less, says Emily Moquin, food and beverage analyst at Morning Consult, which conducted the survey.
• People are starting to think about what they truly need — and what can wait.
• It's the opposite of the "pantry loading" we saw in 2020. Now it's pantry unloading. You buy less and work your way through what remains of the old stockpile.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/super ... -shopping


Change in price of select food items September 2021 to September 2022 according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as summarized in the above cited article:

🍽️ All food at home +13.0%
🥯 Cereals and bakery products +16.2
🥛 Dairy products +15.9
🥤 Nonalcoholic beverages +12.9
🍎 Fruits and vegetables +10.4
🥩 Meats, poultry, fish and eggs +9.0

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics site containing this information in more detailed form: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
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