Food Price Watch Thread

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caltrek
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UN Agencies Warn 'Acute Food Insecurity' Likely to Worsen in 18 Hunger Hot Spots
by Jessica Corbett
May 29, 2023

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) As El Niño looms and fighting in Sudan rages on, a pair of United Nations agencies on Monday warned that "acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 18 hunger hot spots" across 22 countries from June to November.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) delivered that warning in a joint report.

"Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen remain at the highest concern level," the report states. "Haiti, the Sahel (Burkina Faso and Mali), and the Sudan have been elevated to the highest concern levels; this is due to severe movement restrictions of people and goods in Haiti, as well as in Burkina Faso and Mali, and the recent eruption of conflict in the Sudan."

"Pakistan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Syrian Arab Republic are hot spots with very high concern, and the warning is also extended to Myanmar," the publication continues. "Lebanon, El Salvador, and Nicaragua have been added to the list of hunger hot spot countries, since the September 2022 edition. Malawi, Guatemala, and Honduras remain hunger hot spot countries."


Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/un-w ... ots-sudan
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Fertilizer Companies Cash in While Farmers and Communities Struggle
by Noah Zann
June 26, 2023

Introduction:
(Investigate Midwest) On a small vegetable farm in Georgia, Shad Dasher used to grow watermelons every year.

Last year, he didn’t plant any.

Dasher, 56, said it was because of elevated fertilizer prices. Like many farmers, Dasher is finding it hard to stay afloat. “The American public just doesn’t understand what kind of beating our group (of farmers) has been taking over the years,” he said.

Although fertilizer prices have fallen from their all-time high in March 2022, when they spiked up to 3.5 times higher than two years before, the commodity is likely to remain costly for some time, continuing to squeeze the food production system.

Meanwhile, the fertilizer industry has yielded record profits. Canada-based Nutrien Ltd., the world’s leading producer of potash fertilizer, saw profits increase 1,575% between 2020 and 2022 to $7.7 billion. Florida-based Mosaic Co., one of the largest U.S. producers of potash and phosphate fertilizer, netted $3.6 billion in 2022, a 438% increase from 2020. CF Industries, an Illinois-based fertilizer company, made $3.2 billion in 2022, a 955% increase from 2020.
Read more here: https://investigatemidwest.org/2023/06 ... struggle
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The End of Russia and Ukraine’s Grain Deal Is Bad News for the Global Food Supply
by Eamon Whalen
July 21, 2023

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) In July 2022, the United Nations and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan helped broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative: A deal between Russia and Ukraine that the UN Secretary-General António Guterres called “a beacon of hope.” It allowed food and fertilizer exports from three Ukrainian ports—on the Black Sea, Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi—to be shipped to the rest of the world. Since the agreement was signed last year, 32.8 million tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported; more than half has gone to developing countries, including drought-ridden East African nations like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.

This week, that deal ended. And it soon got worse. After pulling out of the deal, Russia attacked storage facilities in the coastal city of Odesa, reportedly destroying 60,000 tons of grain, according to Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi. Both nations say that they will now treat each other’s ships traveling across the Black Sea as potential military targets.

The end of the deal, and the bombings, could be a major blow to the global food supply. As my former colleague Tom Philpott wrote in March 2022, the Russia and Ukraine war is being fought in the world’s breadbasket:

Today, Russia is a global wheat powerhouse, the world’s number-three producer of the staple crop, and its number-one exporter. Just as in 1768, much of its most productive farmland lies east of the Ukraine border, making it largely reliant on the same “black paths” (now covered in paved roads and railroad tracks) to reach markets. Ukraine, too, is a major wheat exporter, and has recently emerged as a corn powerhouse, too, supplying China and its booming meat industry with nearly a third of its feed corn imports.

What does it mean when a war of conquest descends upon one of the globe’s great breadbaskets in the 21st century? With trade routes embattled and markets roiled by Russia’s invasion, wheat prices have already shot up to their highest level in 60 years. This far exceeds the spike of the early 2010s, which led to bread riots in the Middle East that helped bring about the Arab Spring and the still-simmering civil war in Syria.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... od-supply
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A Rice Shortage is Sending Prices Soaring Across the World. And Things Could Get Worse
by Aniruddha Ghosal and Evelyne Musambi
August 22, 2023

Introduction:
(San Diego Union Tribune) Francis Ndege isn’t sure if his customers in Africa’s largest slum can afford to keep buying rice from him.

Prices for rice grown in Kenya soared a while ago because of higher fertilizer prices and a yearslong drought in the Horn of Africa that has reduced production. Cheap rice imported from India had filled the gap, feeding many of the hundreds of thousands of residents in Nairobi's Kibera slum who survive on less than $2 a day.

But that is changing. The price of a 25-kilogram (55-pound) bag of rice has risen by about a fifth since June, going from the equivalent of about $14 to $18. Wholesalers are yet to receive new stocks since India, the world's largest exporter of rice by far, said last month that it would ban some rice shipments.

It's an effort by the world’s most populous nation to control domestic prices ahead of a key election year — but it’s left a yawning gap of around 9.5 million metric tons (10.4 tons) of rice that people around the world need, roughly a fifth of global exports.

“I’m really hoping the imports keep coming,” said Ndege, 51, who's sold rice for 30 years.
The article also explains that Vietnam is seeking to increase its export of rice to the Philippines and the United Kingdom.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... A1fxK9C?
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Since the 2020 low, the price of orange juice is up a massive 315%.

This year alone, orange juice prices have jumped by 105%.
More on that:

Crop Diseases and Hurricanes Hammer Orange Juice Supply
George Glover
October 3, 2023
Extract:
(Market Insider) (O)range juice futures' rapid rise has been driven by two factors that even the Federal Reserve can't control: disease and hurricanes.
Citrus greening is transmitted by infected insects and has led to the supply of oranges from Florida cratering 75% over the past quarter of a century, according to Successful Farming. It's also destroyed crops in Louisiana, Texas, California, and Brazil.

Two hurricanes that hit Florida during the second half of 2022, Ian and Nicole, have also hit citrus supplies, dragging the state's overall orange output to a low not seen since the Great Depression.
Read more here: https://markets.businessinsider.com/ne ... 2023-10

For the cited Successful Farming article: https://www.agriculture.com/researchers ... se-7852746
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GR Fresh Looking for a Winter Rebound
by Tom Linden
November 21, 2023

Introduction:
(The Produce News) After a challenging year, culminating with a weather-caused delay in its fall production from Mexico, McAllen, TX-based GR Fresh is looking for a strong rebound as it heads into the holiday season and typically greater production from West Mexico.

“After experiencing our best year ever in 2022, this has been a tough year overall,” said GR Fresh Vice President of Sales and Marketing Tony Incaviglia. “There has been pain coming from a whole lot of factors, but inflation is the number one problem. We have experienced rising costs across the board, including the cost of seed and packaging and getting the product from the source to the warehouse in McAllen and then on to our customers.”

If that wasn’t enough, a couple of October storms in Mexico caused damage to some shade houses and knock out some young acreage, requiring some rebuilding and some replanting. He said flooding caused some acreage to be lost and heavy winds and rains damaged some of the shade house infrastructure.

“Just as we are celebrating last year’s successes, we have these challenges,” he said. “To use a baseball analogy, you are only as good as your last at bat.”

Continuing in that vein, GR Fresh is back up at the plate looking for some solid hits as it heads toward the typically heavy Thanksgiving pull. “Our supplies have been light, but it looks like we are going to start to get some volume over the next week or two,” Incaviglia said on the first day of November.
Read more here: https://theproducenews.com/headlines/g ... -rebound
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Indian Rice Export Ban: Implications for Global Markets and Food Security
by Arya Roy Bardhan
December 22, 2023


Introduction:
(Observer Research Foundation) Rice is a principal agricultural product that impacts diets, cultures, and economies across the world. It is crucial for nearly 3.5 billion people, especially in Asia, where it is a staple food and a major source of livelihood. The rice value chain plays a central role in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as it supports around 900 million poor individuals globally, with 400 million actively involved in its production. It is pivotal for food security, poverty reduction, and economic growth, particularly in Asia. Amid global challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions, rice prices have increased, threatening the global agricultural sector. At this time, any trade interventions by the major exporters will have deleterious effects on global prices and food security. The recent ban on Indian rice exports—India is the second-largest producer of rice and has been the largest exporter of rice since 2012—will thus affect global prices and the resultant shortage can lead to a food crisis.

The Indian government is balancing the protection of its consumers and farmers with the need to support food security in vulnerable nations. These developments highlight the delicate balance between national policy and global food security, underscoring the need for a careful analysis of India’s rice trade strategies and international commitments to understand the full impact of its export regulations on both local and global participants. The paper highlights the role of India’s low productivity as a driving factor of domestic uncertainty and later discusses the implications of the export ban for international producers and consumers.

Rice production—India and the world

India holds a significant position in global agriculture, being the third-largest cereal producer with 11.2 percent of the world’s arable land. Despite having the highest area under rice cultivation, significantly more than China, it is the second-largest producer due to its lower yield rates, standing at 2,809 kg/hectare. The core issue lies in the low productivity, which, despite improvements since independence, remains below global standards.
Read more here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak ... security
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Trendspotting: Unsettled Weather Hitting Crops on Both Coasts
by Craig Levitt
December 21, 2023

Introduction:
(The Produce News) As many throughout the country prepare for the holiday weekend, storms are expected to impact Southern California and the southwestern desert growing regions. The rains will likely impact northern Mexico areas as well, according to Tim Lynch, quality assurance manager at Pro*Act.

“The southwestern desert regions have seen cold mornings and lettuce ice recently with some epidermal peel and blister showing up in the leafy green supplies," said Lynch. "The upcoming storm system will likely increase mold and mildew in the fields.”

Adverse weather, including rain and colder temperatures, has meant strawberry production in central Mexico is low, according to Pro*Act. It is expected that through the weekend, demand will exceed supply.

Demand is also exceeding supply for asparagus and white onions, mostly due to holiday promotions.

There have been rains — and cooler temperatures — in Florida as well, as production moves toward southern Florida. The weather will likely cause some bloom drop on squash, peppers and tomatoes, impacting supplies and quality in the near term, according to Pro*Act.
Read more here: https://theproducenews.com/headlines/ ... th-coasts
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A $126 Grocery Tab that Explains the Vibes Paradox
by Neil Irwin
January 13, 2024

Introduction:
(Axios) Americans are furious about high inflation, according to the Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll. Economists say that high inflation has mostly been vanquished. Both are correct.

Why it matters: If you look at the level of prices, they are way up since 2020. If you look at the rate at which prices are changing, it has returned to fairly normal levels. This intuition is crucial to understanding this confusing moment for inflation trends and public opinion around them.
Axios Vibe Check: How Americans feel about their grocery tab: 😡 😬 😔

• What the data show: It's complicated.

By the numbers: About 72% of respondents said that groceries are where they feel most affected by inflation.

• 59% feel some sort of negative reaction when shopping for groceries: angry, anxious or resigned — with anger the most common of those.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/01/13/food- ... s-economy
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