South America Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Days Before Runoff, Argentina’s Presidential Election Is Neck and Neck
by Ella Feldman
November 16, 2023

Introduction:
BUENOS AIRES (Courthouse News) — As Argentina readies to elect its next leader in the decisive final round of voting Sunday, polls show the race for the presidential Casa Rosada is neck and neck.

With skyrocketing inflation and a looming recession weighing heavily on their shoulders, voters will choose between two remaining candidates: Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the ruling center-left party’s candidate, and Javier Milei, a libertarian outsider who wants to dollarize Argentina’s economy.

The primary consensus from public opinion polls is that the election will be competitive, though in recent days Milei has pulled slightly ahead of Massa.

“The biggest question mark is the portion of the electorate that will cast a blank ballot — in other words, people who don’t like either candidate,” said Ezequiel González Ocantos, a political science professor at the University of Oxford. “How big is that portion of the electorate? I think that will, in many ways, hold the keys to the result.”

Milei, an economist who made a name for himself by bringing his eccentric demeanor and radical proposals to Argentine television programs, emerged as the race’s frontrunner in a shocking August primary upset. But after over two months of campaigning, it was Massa who took home the most votes in the first round of voting last month. That marked the first time since primaries were established over a decade ago that the party that won the primary did not hold onto its lead in the general election’s first round.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/days-be ... d-neck/
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weatheriscool
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firestar464
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firestar464
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more of an ancap
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Time_Traveller
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Re: South America Watch Thread

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weatheriscool wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:06 am
He is more associated as the new Argentinian Trump.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... on-363468/
"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."

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erowind
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Re: South America Watch Thread

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RIP Argentina. Peronist policy was never radical enough and could only kick economic problems down the road not actually solve them. They needed to actually collectivize the economy through unions, cooperatives and a gradual transition into a mixed economy. Argentina's public sector comprises less than 20% of its workforce and isn't focused in productive industries. Unlike Norway where state owned enterprises (SOE) makeup over 90% of employment. The Argentinian government isn't pulling in revenue and even if it were operating on more socialistic models resources would not be able to effectively flow between SOE's, coops, and unionized businesses as they wouldn't saturate the economy enough to solve the current crises.

https://www.oecd.org/daf/ca/Argentina-SOE-Review.pdf (SOE's employment data of Argentina compared to other countries. Page 32. Fig 5.)

That all said, a libertarian or anarcho-capitalist isn't going to solve anything. (Very funny to see an "anarchist" in office btw.) Dollarizing the economy will only increase capital flows out of Argentina into the Global North as Argentina will have less control over its currency and no ability to capitalize its own debt, leaving it completely at the mercy of international loans from the World Bank and IMF.

Beyond dollarizing, austerity isn't going to help the economy either. There are ways to bring the countries debt crises under control without cutting services in a real way. In most cases there are gross inefficiencies in public spending that could be addressed, taxation could be levied against large corporations and the wealthy, and as always Argentina could create cooperatives and SOEs to transition away from reliance on capital flows in monetary terms, at least internally within Argentina. None of this stuff works without cultural changes though, it's not something that can just be legislated into action it has to be actively built and would take years if not decades.
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Powers
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Re: South America Watch Thread

Post by Powers »

Time_Traveller wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:35 pm
weatheriscool wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:06 am
He is more associated as the new Argentinian Trump.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... on-363468/
Bullrich was more similar to Bolsonaro/Trump.
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caltrek
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erowind wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:45 pm ... Unlike Norway where state owned enterprises (SOE) makeup over 90% of employment.
At the risk of derailing this thread, SOE employment accounts for an estimated 9.6% of employment in Norway, not "over 90%." This is still a very high level.

Source: https://www.oecd.org/industry/ind/Item ... n_Kane.pdf (see chart on page six of the linked document).


Edit: I fixed the link in response to Erowind's comment below.
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erowind
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Re: South America Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

caltrek wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:59 pm
erowind wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:45 pm ... Unlike Norway where state owned enterprises (SOE) makeup over 90% of employment.
At the risk of derailing this thread, SOE employment accounts for an estimated 9.6% of employment in Norway, not "over 90%." This is still a very high level.

Source: https://www.oecd.org/industry/ind/Item ... orin_Kane. (see chart on page six of the linked document).
The source I posted is also from the OECD. This is very confusing, I thought that Norway's numbers were actually lower myself and was surprised to see a 90%+ figure. My guess is that these are actually two different metrics we're both seeing that are being calculated differently. In Norway's case the OECD may be considering even ostensibly private firms to be SOE's or "SOE's" for the purposes of this calculation due to the Norwegian government holding stock in so many domestic firms through their sovereign wealth fund. This is just speculation, I don't know actually know why we're both seeing wildly different numbers from the same source.

In any case, this is the chart I was referencing in my link, apologies for it being so blurry it is not loading properly in the PDF.

Image

Also the link you posted is broken for some reason, this is what I see when I click it.

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