South America Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Leftist Gabriel Boric to become Chile's youngest ever president
More on that:

https://www.courthousenews.com/leftist- ... president/

Introduction:
SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) — A leftist millennial who rose to prominence during anti-government protests was elected Chile's next president Sunday after a bruising campaign against a free-market firebrand likened to Donald Trump.

With 56% of the votes, Gabriel Boric handily defeated by more than 10 points lawmaker José Antonio Kast, who tried unsuccessfully to scare voters that his young, inexperienced opponent would upend Chile's vaunted record as Latin America's most stable, advanced economy.

In a model of democratic civility that broke from the polarizing rhetoric of the campaign, Kast immediately recognized defeat, tweeting a photo of himself on the phone with his opponent congratulating him on his "grand triumph." He then later traveled personally to Boric's campaign headquarters to meet with his rival.
Conclusion:
Boric's victory likely to be tempered by a divided congress.

In addition, the political rules could soon change because a newly elected convention is rewriting the country's Pinochet-era constitution. The convention — the nation's most powerful elected institution — could in theory call for new presidential elections when it concludes its work next year and if the new charter is ratified in a plebiscite.
caltrek's comment: Some had feared that Kast would launch a coup if he lost. Whether his conciliatory comments and willingness to cooperate are actions born of sincere commitment to democracy, or simply a matter of realizing that a coup attempt would be unsuccessful, is a good question. Perhaps a desire for the appearance of relative stability is also a factor.
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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Argentine President Hires Two Lawyers in ‘Fiesta in Olivos’ Scandal
by James Whitehead
December 17, 2021

https://www.courthousenews.com/argentin ... s-scandal/

Introduction:
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Courthouse News) — With shades of the French Laundry scandal that dogged California Governor Gavin Newsom well into the failed bid to recall him, Argentine president Alberto Fernández has hired two lawyers to represent him after he attended a birthday party with 10 other guests at the official presidential residence despite strict lockdown measures forbidding social gatherings.

Until now, Fernández, a trained lawyer, had been representing himself. He presented his defense to federal Judge Lino Mirabelli, arguing the party at Quinta de Olivos presented no risk to public health and that no crime was committed.

Mirabelli rejected the president’s request to dismiss the case, a ruling Fernández agreed not to appeal. Instead, he hired two lawyers, Marcelo Antonio and Fabián Musso, to represent him in further proceedings.

The birthday party honored first lady Fabiola Yáñez and took place in July 2020, despite strict lockdown measures put in place by Fernández, including restrictions on travel and a ban on indoor social gatherings.

The event remained unknown to the public until this past August, when a photo first appeared followed by a video of the 11-member party. In the video, friends and staff of Yáñez could be seen celebrating and sipping champagne without social distancing or wearing masks.
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caltrek
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Why Chile's Election Signals Major Shift
by Ariel Dorfman
December 25, 2021

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2021 ... ajor-shift

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) There are many reasons the resounding victory of Gabriel Boric, a millennial left-wing congressman, in Chile’s presidential elections will echo far beyond the borders of that Andean nation.

In times that have seen the alarming rise of authoritarianism worldwide, it is a cause for celebration that Chilean voters rejected not only Boric’s opponent, the ultraconservative faux-populist, José Antonio Kast—an admirer of the country’s former dictator, Gen. Augusto Pinochet—but also Kast’s anti-immigrant, traditionalist, anti-abortion, law-and-order message of fear and intolerance.

Just as significant globally is that my compatriots chose in Boric a leader who, at 35, will be the youngest president in Chilean history, someone who embodies the emergence of a new generation on our troubled planet. The causes he believes in are those youth everywhere have been increasingly fighting for across the globe: gender equity, the empowerment of women and indigenous peoples, an end to police brutality and neoliberal economic policies, a deepening of democracy and civil rights and, above all, urgent action on climate change.

But like militants elsewhere, Boric also faces massive obstacles in order to enact the crucial changes that, in the case of Chile, are necessary to ensure justice and dignity for the country’s neglected majority. Despite the ample margins of Boric’s win with 56% of the vote and the largest total in the country’s history, the road ahead will not be easy. After all, 44% of the electorate voted for someone as retrograde as Kast, who has, like autocrats in other nations (Trump, anyone?), sidelined and devoured the potentially liberal elements of traditional right-wing parties. And major reforms will need to be negotiated in a Congress where the radical coalition that supports the incoming president—along with allies on the center-Left—barely possess a workable majority.
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caltrek
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Argentina's Economic Success in the Face of Covid-19
by Joseph Stiglitz
January 11, 2021

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022 ... e-covid-19

Extract:
(Common Dreams) Fortunately, the IMF now recognizes that its program (in Argentina) failed to achieve its stated economic objectives. The Fund's "Ex-Post Evaluation" places a significant portion of the blame on (former President Mauricio) Macri's government, whose "redlines on certain policies may have ruled out potentially critical measures for the program. Among those measures were a debt operation and use of capital flow management measures."

The IMF's usual apologists will attribute the program's failure to a lack of communication or clumsy implementation. But better communication is no fix for poor program design. The market understood this, even if the US Treasury Department and some in the IMF did not.

Given the mess that Argentinian President Alberto Fernández's government inherited in late 2019, it appears to have achieved an economic miracle. From the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021, GDP growth reached 11.9%, and is now estimated to have been 10% for 2021—almost twice the forecast for the US—while employment and investment have recovered to levels above those when Fernández took office. The country's public finances have also improved, even with a countercyclical recovery policy, owing to the strong economic growth, higher and more progressive tax rates on wealth and corporate income, and the debt restructuring of 2020.

There also has been significant growth in exports—not just in terms of value but also in volume—following the implementation of development policies designed to foster growth in the tradable sector. These include reforms to credit policies; a reduction in export duties to zero in value-added sectors, coupled with higher rates on primary commodities; and investments in public infrastructure and research and development (the kinds of policies that Bruce Greenwald and I advocate in our book Creating a Learning Society).

Despite this significant progress in the real economy, the financial media has chosen to focus wholly on issues such as country risk and the exchange-rate gap. But those problems are hardly surprising. Financial markets are looking at the mountain of IMF-furnished debt coming due. Given the enormous size of the loan that needs to be refinanced, an agreement that merely extends the amortization timeline from 4.5 to ten years is hardly sufficient to alleviate Argentina's debt worries.
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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The Slow Death of Colombia’s Fragile Peace
by David González M.
January 18, 2022

https://www.latinorebels.com/2022/01/18 ... iolence-2/

Introduction:
(Latino Rebels) BOGOTÁ, Colombia — In the first week of the year, nearly 30 people were murdered in the eastern Colombian border town of Arauca in less than 24 hours. The media did not know with certainty if the dead were fatalities of combat or the victims of another massacre—last year the Institute for Development and Peace Studies (INDEPAZ) registered 88 incidents.

After a few years of fragile peace, Colombia is against (I think Mr. Gonzales meant "again" - caltrek) spiraling into violence, and experts say that responsibility lies squarely on the shoulders of President Iván Duque and his government, a firm ally of the United States.

Colombia continues to have the largest number of internally displaced people in the world. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs published a figure that exemplifies the situation in Colombia in the last year of the Duque administration, showing that internal displacement between January and August 2021 was 135 percent higher than during the same period in 2020.

This is happening in the fifth year of a peace agreement with serious flaws in its implementation

“The Duque government has not implemented the agreement,” Sen. Iván Cepeda, leader of the opposition, tells Latino Rebels. “He does not believe in the peace agreement, and his only response to problems that exist in the territory such as Arauca is militarizing.”
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4 Year Paraguay Drought temperatures as high as 122F, crop rate failures of ~60% and the drying up of portions of the Parana river.

Paraguayan drought likely to keep Argentinian soy crush underutilized in Q1

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... ized-in-q1

Heatwave and drought hit South America’s crops and economy

https://dialogochino.net/en/agriculture ... e-economy/

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caltrek
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Argentine Non-meat Eaters Gain Ground in a Land Dominated by Beef
by James Francis Whitehead
February 19, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/argentin ... d-by-beef/

Introduction:
(Courthouse News) — A culinary struggle is underway between the growing vegetarian and vegan community and the traditional meat-eating majority of Argentina, a country famed for its grass-fed beef that stretches back to colonial times.

Argentines eat the most meat in all of South America, around 109.38kg per person per year, and have the third biggest appetite in the world behind only Australians (121.6kg) and Americans (124.1kg).

Meat, and particularly beef, has shaped the destiny of Argentina since the Spanish conquistadors herded cattle on ships and brought them over to South America.

The boundless grassy plains of the Pampas, with its fertile soil and climate, fed the rapidly multiplying cattle as well as the agricultural export-driven growth of Argentina’s economy.
Further Extract:
“With a severe economic crisis due to the pandemic, and with a drop in income and job losses, beef consumption is the lowest in the history of the country,” the (regional board of trade) report added, “around 25% less than what was consumed at the beginning of the 2000s and 40% less than 50 years ago. Yet despite this decrease, Argentina continues to hold first position in terms of world beef consumption per capita. In 2021, Argentines ate 47.5kg of beef, followed by Uruguay (45kg) and the U.S. (38kg).”
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caltrek
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Peruvian Startup Leasy Secures $17 Million in Debt, Equity to Provide Auto Loans to Latin-American Ride-Hailing Drivers
by Mary Ann Azevedo
February 25, 2022

https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/25/peruv ... -in-latam/

Introduction:
(TechCrunch) Leasy, a startup that offers automobile financing to ride-hailing drivers in Latin America via a subscription model, has secured $2 million in equity and $15 million in debt.

Italian-born Gregorio Gilardini and Alejandro Garay, who hails from Spain, met in Peru several years ago and discovered they both had an interest in using technology to make a social impact and help people escape “the poverty trap.”

They founded Leasy in 2018 with the mission to help people who would like to earn incomes as ride-hailing drivers be able to afford cars, thus earning a steady income. Traditional financial institutions charge outrageous interest rates and require hefty down payments, making it nearly impossible for members of a lower-income population to afford to purchase their own car.

Lima-based Leasy is different, said Gilardini, in that its interest rates are far lower and terms much more flexible. It claims that it offers loans that are “built around the needs” of a ride-hailing driver at competitive prices that match rental market prices. It also requires a down payment of 5%, compared to the 20% to 30% required by most banks.

“That’s an amount of cash that most people don’t have,” Garay said. “A lot live day to day and drivers are like ghosts in the system.
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Argentina’s Grain Shipments Reach Record Level Yet Wildfires and Conflict Darken 2022 Forecasts
https://www.bcr.com.ar/es/mercados/inve ... en-el-2021 (hit “English” for translation)

Extract:
(Rosario Board of Trade) Grain shipments from Argentine ports totaled 60.66 Mt, a historical record. The participation of the ports of Greater Rosario fell, also influenced by the lower production of the central and northern regions of the country.

After a 2020 marked by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption and the key variables of the national and global economy, 2021 brought a strong recovery in world economic activity and the normalization of the flow of international trade, which decanted in a strong increase in the demand for food that impacted both the prices and the volumes of grains sold.
In this context, and despite the difficulties imposed by the level of the Paraná River and the productive setback suffered by some of the main crops during the last campaign, the country shipped, from all its port terminals, grains for 60.66 Mt in the 2021, 7% more than everything shipped in 2020 and reaching a historical record by surpassing the 2019 mark (at that time 60.3 Mt were shipped).

Finally, regarding grain destinations, Asia once again became the main destination for Argentine grain shipments, receiving 52% of the total, equivalent to 31.8 Mt (↑ 6% vs. 2020). In second place was America, which represented 26% of total shipments (16.1 Mt, ↑18% vs. 2020). Africa ranked third with shipments of 12.2 Mt (↑ 2% yoy) and Europe came fourth and last with 616,419 t (↓28% yoy).

In the case of wheat, Brazil undisputedly positioned itself as the main (single country) recipient of shipments of Argentine winter grain. In the last year, it received 5.2 Mt, 16% more than in 2020. In addition, Chile also stands out, receiving almost 840,000 t, more than double the 2016 record. On the other hand, and as expected, shipments destined for Indonesia fell sharply. This is because, in previous years, the island country had to go in search of new supplies when Australia (its usual supplier) had severe production problems due to a severe drought, which was beneficial for Argentine wheat. However, in the last year the Australian production recovered, so it was once again the supplier of its usual customers, to the detriment of domestic wheat.
https://www.courthousenews.com/argentin ... forecasts/
(Courthouse News) Although the volume of grain shipments is at record highs, the number of farmers growing crops is concentrating in fewer hands of Argentina’s rural landed class. And despite positive export figures for 2021, Argentina faces an uncertain and volatile harvest for the 2021/2022 season, with soaring summer temperatures triggering droughts and forest fires in the northern provinces.

Running alongside the eastern border of Corrientes is the Paraná River, the second-longest in South America and a vital waterway for transporting grains from the farm belt for export. Yet drought has led to its lowest levels since 1944 (its flow rate dropped from an average of 17,000 cubic meters to 6,200) and limited the volume of grains for transport.

The drought, which has also affected areas of Brazil, has pushed the price of soybeans upward, rising by $4.80 to $593.20 per ton, as producers scale back their production estimates for 2022. Together, Argentina and Brazil grow half of the world’s soybeans. Soy production is expected to reach its lowest levels in 14 years during this year’s harvest, 30% less than expected.

Rising grain prices are not only consequences of worsening climate conditions but also military conditions, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provoking volatility in the price of wheat and corn – with wheat rising by $5.10 to $298 per ton and corn rising by $4.50 to $262.10 per ton.
Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters, accounting for 19% of global corn exports, 29% of wheat exports and 80% of sunflower oil exports.
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El Salvador's leader wants to go in even bigger on bitcoin
Source: NPR
SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador — The president of El Salvador is making a huge bet on bitcoin with his country's treasury. President Nayib Bukele is hoping to launch bitcoin-backed bonds to raise $1 billion for the country.

Bukele wants to raise the funds through international cryptocurrency traders, and to avoid his critics in the United States, including at the International Monetary Fund.

Last year, Bukele got El Salvador to become the first nation to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, right alongside the national currency, the U.S. dollar.

The bitcoin bond launch would mark another first of its kind. But while these moves are welcomed by crypto enthusiasts, they've raised concerns among detractors of the popular, unregulated asset market
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