Economic and jobs news thread

[caltrek]

Journalism Losing Jobs but Consolidation Occurring as a Defensive Measure
by Monika Bauerlein and Clara Jeffery
December 14, 2023

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Most of the news about the journalism business right now is grim. Storied newsrooms are being hollowed out and sold to hedge funds. Once-hot digital startups are cutting back and closing down. Even public radio and television are laying off staff. Just this year, the United States has lost more than 2,600 journalism jobs, and more than 20,000 media jobs altogether; since the Great Recession in 2008, newsrooms have shrunk by at least half. It’s no coincidence that during this same time, disinformation and propaganda have come to dominate our politics, to the point where next year’s presidential election…well, honestly, we don’t need to tell you what’s at stake.

So it’s pretty urgent that we get some good news about holding the powerful and corrupt accountable. Today, we have some, and we wanted to be sure our community of readers hears it first: Mother Jones is growing! We are joining forces with another storied nonprofit, The Center for Investigative Reporting (CIR), to become a stronger and more impactful newsroom that can deliver great, in-depth reporting on more platforms to millions more people.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/author/clara-jeffery/

[caltrek]

Why Inflation's "Last Mile" Might Not Be So Hard After All
by Courtenay Brown
December 18, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios)

Top policymakers warned that the "last mile" of getting inflation back to 2% would be most challenging.

• But now, the finish line is in sight and disinflation looks to still have momentum to carry through.

Why it matters: Beating inflation in America has not become more difficult as the fight winds down.

• Rather, supply-side rebounds and strong productivity gains have surprised top economists, who expected economic pain might be necessary to get inflation all the way back to the sweet spot central bankers aim for.

Flashback: This summer, the Bank for International Settlements — known as the central bank for central banks — warned that slowing inflation owed much to repairing supply chains and cheaper commodity prices.

• The economists warned that "the last mile to price stability may be the most challenging" largely due to tight labor markets and strong inflation in the services sector — a combination that might fuel a hard-to-tame wage-price spiral.

Where it stands: That scenario hasn't played out, at least not in the U.S.

• Labor markets have loosened up, helped by a larger supply of workers who came off the sidelines. Stronger wage gains have been paired with strong productivity growth

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/12/18/inflation-last-mile

[caltrek]

The Minimum Wage is Going Up In 22 States on Jan. 1
by Emily Peck
December 18, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios)
The minimum wage is set to increase in 22 states on Jan. 1, 2024.

Why it matters: For Americans making minimum wage, it's an automatic raise — but it also ripples out. Typically, increasing the wage floor for the lowest earners pushes up pay for those who make a bit more than the minimum, as employers have to adjust pay scales upwards.

The big picture: More states are requiring a $15 an hour minimum wage — including New York, Maryland, and New Mexico — a dozen years after Fight for $15 kicked off its campaign.

• Thanks to inflation, the dollar amount doesn't quite mean what it used to.

Zoom in: In 13 states wages are going up because they're indexed to inflation, including California, Ohio and South Dakota.

• Three more states and Washington, D.C., are set to raise the wage later in the year.

• The last time the federal minimum wage ($7.25) was increased was in 2009.

Read more here (and view interactive map showing minimum wage by state): https://www.axios.com/2023/12/18/minim ... es-2024

[funkervogt]

Enrollment in computer science majors is at all-time highs in American colleges.
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/stu ... lment-caps

I see a potential catastrophe if the trend continues, but in a few years LLMs surpass humans at computer programming and tech companies cash in by ditching human workers.

[weatheriscool]

U.S. Current-Account Deficit Narrows in 3rd Quarter 2023

December 20, 2023

The U.S. current-account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $16.5 billion, or 7.6 percent, to $200.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023. The narrowing mostly reflected a reduced deficit on goods. The third-quarter deficit was 2.9 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, down from 3.2 percent in the second quarter.



* Exports of goods increased $19.1 billion to $516.4 billion, while imports of goods increased $4.6 billion to $777.4 billion.
* Exports of services increased $2.7 billion to $252.2 billion, while imports of services decreased $1.9 billion to $176.0 billion.
* Receipts of primary income increased $11.8 billion to $362.1 billion, while payments of primary income increased $14.0 billion to $332.1 billion.
* Receipts of secondary income decreased $0.7 billion to $45.1 billion, while payments of secondary income decreased $0.3 billion to $90.7 billion.
* Net financial-account transactions were ?$138.6 billion in the third quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2023-12-2 ... arter-2023

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[caltrek]

One Percent Move Report for December 20, 2023


Introduction:

(Morgan Stanley)

• The S&P 500 Index fell 1.5% Wednesday to end the day at 4,698.35, having gained 22.4% thus far in 2023.

• Zero of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Communication Services (-0.1%) and Energy (-1.0%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Utilities (-2.0%) and Consumer Staples (-2.0%) performed weakest.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 8 bp to 3.85%; WTI crude oil prices decreased 0.2% to $73.79 per barrel; and gold decreased 0.5% to $2,030.98 per ounce.

Further Extract:

Equities
US: We remain uncertain that forward earnings estimates are accurately discounting the most recent developments of a strong US dollar, rising oil prices, maturing US fiscal stimulus and an increasingly tapped-out US consumer. Additionally, we expect that Fed actions in 2024 may result in a “higher-for-longer” rate scenario. Our preference is for defensive and secular-growth equities with quality balance sheets.

International Equities (Developed Markets): The mix of high and sticky inflation, existential risks associated with Russia/Ukraine and the European Central Bank's position that it has limited tools to help, suggest that the odds of recession are over 50%. Developed market exposure should skew toward commodities and materials exporters, especially those in the Asia/Pacific region, including Japan.

Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... -20231220

[caltrek]

One Percent Move report for December 21, 2023

Introduction:

(Morgan Stanley)

What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 Index rose 1% Thursday to end the day at 4,746.75, having gained 23.6% thus far in 2023.

• All 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Consumer Discretionary (1.4%) and Health Care (1.2%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Energy (0.4%) and Utilities (0.1%) performed weakest.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield increased 4bp to 3.89%; WTI crude oil prices decreased 0.3% to $74.02 per barrel; and gold increased 0.7% to $2,044.61 per ounce.

Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... 20231221

[caltrek]

Fed's Favored Inflation Gauge Shows Overall Prices Fell in November
Courtenay Brown
December 22, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios) The Federal Reserve's go-to inflation index declined 0.1% in November, the first monthly drop in overall prices by this measure in over three years.

Why it matters: The data from the Commerce Department is the freshest sign of cooling inflation that came alongside solid consumer spending and rising income.

• President Biden called the news a "significant milestone," but he added that "work is far from finished."

By the numbers: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.6% from the same month a year ago — edging closer to the 2% sweet spot that Fed officials target. In October, it rose 2.9% from a year ago.

• The index's monthly drop of 0.1% in November came as energy prices plummeted by 2.7% and food prices decreased 0.1%.

• Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core index rose 3.2% from one year ago. compared to the 3.4% rise in October. For November, the index rose by just 0.1%.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/12/22/infla ... rve-pce

[weatheriscool]