Economic and jobs news thread

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caltrek
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...and just in case that was not enough reading material for you to digest:

Meme Stock Hype Dies Down
by Courtenay Brown
December 10, 2021

https://www.axios.com/meme-stock-hype-d ... 7cc65.html

Introduction:
(Axios) GameStop and AMC are shedding that unprecedented Reddit day-trader chatter and those eye-popping stock swings — two defining factors for the meme stock cohort.

Why it matters: The hype for the OG meme stocks at the center of the pandemic-era phenomenon has died out.

The latest: GameStop’s stock dived 10% Thursday after the video game retailer disclosed it had been subpoenaed by the SEC related to an investigation into stock trading activity.

But there hasn’t been a plunge that steep since June — one sign that wild swings (to the downside or upside) have become less common.
By the numbers: A five-day moving average of GameStop's stock moves over the past year shows a daily shift of roughly 5%, as of Thursday. In February, that was as high as 74%.
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weatheriscool
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US inflation jumps 6.8% in November -- fastest rate in 39 years

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Fri, December 10, 2021, 8:45 AM

U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest clip in nearly four decades last month, underscoring the persistently elevated inflationary pressures in the recovering economy.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 6.8% in November compared to last year, marking the fastest annual increase since June 1982. This rate matched consensus economists' estimates, according to Bloomberg data, but accelerated compared to the 6.2% year-over-year rate from the prior month.

Even excluding more volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 4.9% over last year for the fastest increase in about three decades.

On a month-over-month basis, the CPI rose 0.8% in November, coming in ahead of the 0.7% rise anticipated. This also marked an eighteenth straight month of advances in the index. And excluding food and energy prices, the month-over-month CPI rose 0.5%, matching estimates and coming down by just a tick compared to October's 0.6% increase.

"Inflation is outpacing increases in household income and weighing heavily on consumer confidence, which is at a decade low," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, wrote in an email on Friday. "It is only a matter of time before it impacts consumer spending in a material way."

Contributions to the CPI last month were broad-based, though price increases in gasoline, shelter, food and both new and used vehicles were some of the largest contributors.

Energy prices overall were up 3.5% in November over October for sixth consecutive monthly gain, as increasing consumer mobility during the reopening pushed up both demand and prices for fuel and other energy products. Gas prices alone were up 6.1% to match October's increase, and the gasoline price index was up about 58% over last year for its largest 12-month increase since 1980.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer ... 29314.html
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caltrek
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The 1% Move Report
December 15, 2021

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20211215

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley) What Happened in the Markets?

US stocks rallied on Wednesday as the S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500) gained 1.6% to close at 4,710. With the rally, the index is now up 25.4% year to date.

The Federal Reserve was the main focus for markets today as investors looked for clarity on the path forward for monetary policy. The December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting came after several weeks of volatility that began with Fed Chair Powell suggesting to Congress that removal of accommodation could be accelerated. This hawkish pivot was confirmed, as the Fed committed to $30 billion of tapering per month and the dot plot indicated as many as 3 hikes in 2022. While equities traded lower to start the day, these losses quickly reversed after the 2pm FOMC statement as the Fed delivered an outcome that was largely in-line with consensus expectations. With the S&P 500 down 1.7% week-to-date after Tuesday's session, investors had positioned defensively into today’s meeting, setting the stage for a potential relief rally. Notably, the Fed indicated that it would continue to manage policy in-line with economic data and suggested that the removal of policy will remain gradual. With this risk event out of the way, equities gained, led by Tech stocks which reversed recent underperformance as the Nasdaq 100* rose more than 2%.

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the session, with Information Technology (+2.8%) and Health Care (+2.1%) outperforming the broader market, while Materials (+0.3%) and Energy (-0.4%) lagged.

Rates were higher across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 1.46% as of the 4 p.m. equity market close. Gold was modestly higher on the day while WTI was also higher at nearly $72 per barrel. The US dollar was modestly weaker on the trading session, as measured by the US Dollar Index.
*https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nasdaq.asp
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weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Kellogg's reaches tentative agreement with 1,400 striking workers
Source: CBS News
Kellogg's has reached a new tentative agreement with its 1,400 striking cereal plant workers that could bring an end to the strike that began October 5.

Members of the Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union will vote on the new offer that includes cost-of-living adjustments and a $1.10 per hour raise for all employees on Sunday. Last week, the union overwhelmingly rejected a previous offer from the Battle Creek, Michigan-based company that included 3% raises, but only some employees would have received cost-of-living adjustments.

"We value all of our employees. They have enabled Kellogg to provide food to Americans for more than 115 years," said Kellogg Co. Chairman and CEO Steve Cahillane. "We are hopeful our employees will vote to ratify this contract and return to work."

The results of the contract vote are expected to be released Tuesday. Union officials declined to comment Thursday on the details of the new five-year deal.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... ar-AARVaXf
weatheriscool
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Jobless claims: Another 206,000 individuals filed new claims, rising from 52-year low

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, December 16, 2021, 8:30 AM

New weekly jobless claims ticked up slightly last week to hold near a 52-year low.
The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 11: 206,000 vs. 200,000 expected and 184,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 4: 1.845 million vs. 1.943 million expected and 1.992 million during prior week

First-time unemployment filings fell sharply to reach their lowest level since 1969 in early December, coming in at a better-than-expected 184,000. As of last week, the four-week moving average for new claims -- which smooths out volatility in the weekly data - came in at the lowest level since March 2020, dropping by more than 21,000 on a week-over-week basis to reach 218,750.

And continuing claims, while still somewhat above pre-pandemic levels, have also come down sharply from their pandemic-era high. This metric tracking the total number of individuals claiming benefits across regular state programs peaked at more than 23 million in May 2020, but is expected to come in below 2 million for a third straight week in this week's report.

"After a bit of a gift in the recent sharp decline in seasonally adjusted new jobless claims, the expectation is that we may have to give back just a little of that progress this week," wrote Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, in a note on Wednesday. "Even so, the continued downward trek in new claims has been one of the pleasant surprises among economic themes this year."

The marked drop in new weekly jobless claims over the course of 2021 -- and especially in the past several weeks -- has served as one key indicator of the current tightness in the labor market.

But even as the rate of those newly unemployed per week sank to multi-decade lows, labor force participation has remained depressed compared to pre-virus levels, and job openings have held near record highs. The labor force participation rate last came in at 61.8% for November, or short of February 2020's 63.3%, and the size of the civilian labor force was still down by 2.4 million.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-u ... 22770.html
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caltrek
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The 1% Move Report
December 17, 2021

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20211217

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley)
What Happened in the Markets?
  • US stocks traded lower on Friday as the S&P 500 declined 1.0% to close at 4,621. With the sell-off, the index is now up 23.0% year to date.
  • Equities traded lower on Friday as the S&P 500 has now declined in four of the past five trading sessions. There was no clear catalyst for the move lower into the weekend, though risks related to the Omicron variant appear to be continuing to weigh on markets, with New York setting a daily record for new cases on Friday. Outside of Omicron, the Federal Reserve has been in focus this week with Wednesday's meeting confirming the central bank's hawkish pivot as they accelerated the tapering of asset purchases; while markets staged a relief rally on Wednesday as the Fed announcement was largely in-line with market expectations, all of those gains were given back on Thursday and Friday. Cyclicals underperformed Friday after outperforming defensive and growth stocks on Thursday.
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower on the session, with Real Estate (-0.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.5%) outperforming the broader market, while Energy (-2.2%) and Financials (-2.3%) lagged.
  • Rates were mixed across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 1.41% as of the 4 p.m. equity market close. Gold was flat on the day while WTI (Western Texas Intermediate) was lower at nearly $70 per barrel. The US dollar was modestly strong on the trading session, as measured by the US Dollar Index.
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Re: Inflation
by Rich Lowry

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... urd-525086
(Politico) President Joe Biden has the misfortune to be president at the moment when corporate America has decided to get together and gouge American consumers.

That, at least, is the story the White House and its allies, most prominently Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), want to tell.
caltrek's comment: Yes, because the problem is systemic in nature.
No one on the left seems to deny that supply chain disruptions are playing a role in inflation, but the focus on corporate greed is an absurdly reductive depiction of the U.S. economy — as if a broad-based, multicausal economic phenomenon is being mainly or at least significantly driven by a handful of corporate malefactors wielding nearly unchecked power over the consumer price index. It is a fairy tale transparently intended to shift the political blame for an economic discontent that is hobbling Biden’s presidency.
caltrek's comment: No...it is a realization that the problem is systemic in nature. Incidentally, that systemic problem looks remarkably like " handful of corporate malefactors wielding nearly unchecked power.
Did the American economy, after 30 years of notably low inflation, suddenly become more concentrated earlier this year, such that companies could arbitrarily jack up prices?
caltrek's comment: The author answers his own question:
And why was it that this economic power made itself felt just as supply chain disruptions took hold and the Democrats’ massive Covid relief bill further stoked demand in an already growing economy?
caltrek's comment: i.e. Covid. Yes, the economy was growing....until Covid caused it to shrink. How soon we forget.
If greedy corporations are to blame, they are at work across the board.
caltrek's comment: Yes, because the problem is systemic
It is true that most big companies have increased their profit margins.
caltrek's comment: Thank you.
But demand is higher than it was pre-pandemic in many sectors of the economy, providing a strong foundation for profitability, and a standard feature of an inflationary environment is companies seeing how much they can raise prices without hitting a wall of consumer resistance.
caltrek's comment: A systemic problem. One that is especially acute within the monopoly sector of the economy.
This is one reason it’s best not to have an inflationary environment in the first place.
caltrek's comment: Which is why there is today a heavy reliance on stabilizer mechanisms to keep inflation in check.
Regardless, they are operating in a complex, highly competitive environment in which misjudging the market can do serious harm. Also, just because a company is highly profitable in the current quarter doesn’t mean it was nearly as profitable a year ago, or will be as profitable a year from now. If a persistent inflation takes hold, the recent price increases and enhanced profits will be eroded away again by still higher wages and increased costs.
caltrek's comments: Oh, the poor little capitalists. My heart bleeds.
As for the meatpackers... What’s happened during the pandemic is that there has been high demand that, combined with labor disruptions at meatpacking plants, has disrupted supply
caltrek's comment: Ok.
All the hokum about the causes of inflation is basically a confession of impotence. If the Biden administration had a good story to tell about how it’s fixing inflation, it wouldn’t need to create cartoon villains.
caltrek's comment: No, it would need to help us understand that it is a systemic problem. So, greedy capitalists are simply playing the role that has been assigned to them. An assignment which they seem to wildly embrace.
It would be better served by focusing on a whole host of barnacles on the U.S. supply chain — from union rules and environmental laws that have hampered U.S. ports and other infrastructure; to the Jones Act, which increases the costs of shipping; to the foolish tariffs on truck chassis at a time when they are in short supply.
caltrek's comment: The problem is systemic in nature. These are just band aids, many of which will endanger worker health, remove protection for workers earnings, and/or damage the environment. If truck chassis are so strategically critical, then perhaps we should provide incentives for their domestic production. Better late than never, although it is particularly painful during a time of inflation.
Of course, all these measures would be politically painful to address, and none would be a magic bullet.
Yes, and addressing the systemic problems of capitalism as Elizabeth Warren and others suggests would be "politically painful." Monopoly capitalists would see to that.
It is easier to pretend that, sometime earlier this year, corporate America suddenly decided out of nowhere to get greedy.
caltrek's comment: I, for one, would not argue that corporate America has "suddenly decided" to get greedy. It has always been greedy. Again, a role assigned to it by the current system.
Don't mourn, organize.

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Yuli Ban
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Regardless, they are operating in a complex, highly competitive environment in which misjudging the market can do serious harm. Also, just because a company is highly profitable in the current quarter doesn’t mean it was nearly as profitable a year ago, or will be as profitable a year from now. If a persistent inflation takes hold, the recent price increases and enhanced profits will be eroded away again by still higher wages and increased costs.
It (the Biden administration) would be better served by focusing on a whole host of barnacles on the U.S. supply chain — from union rules and environmental laws that have hampered U.S. ports...
Image
https://otherwords.org/the-only-epidemi ... s-worried/
Don't mourn, organize.

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