Economic and jobs news thread

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

billionaires get richer by 3.9 trillion

I still can't see how some can write about a "declining rate of profit" when you have data like that coming in.

What I came here to post:

Markets Cap Off Week with a Win but are Down Overall for January

https://www.courthousenews.com/markets- ... r-january/

Introduction:

MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — A turbulent week on Wall Street settled down on Friday, with investors able to notch a win. However, markets are still down hundreds of points for the year.

Putting the massive swings from earlier in the week behind them, the three major U.S. indices calmed on Friday. By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 565 points for the day, though it still lost 461 points for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each made substantial gains on Friday — by 105 points and 417 points, respectively — but similarly lost for the week.

Since the beginning of the year, however, all three markets are down substantially, with the Dow having declined 1,596 points, the S&P 500 347 points, and the Nasdaq a whopping 1,962 points since trading resumed on January 3.

The lift on Friday was due mostly to good news from corporate earnings, most notably from Apple, Microsoft and Caterpillar. For Apple, revenue increased significantly, to the tune of 11%, or almost $124 billion, during its first 2022 quarter, the highest in company history. Microsoft also beat forecasts with its revenue increase, which topped $51 billion and was 20% better than a year ago. For Caterpillar, sales and revenue jumped 23% last quarter, hinting that supply-chain issues may be starting to loosen up.

Markets are also still chewing through the statements on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve, which on Wednesday began to lay the groundwork for finally raising the federal funds interest rate after its March meeting.

The "One Percent Move Report" from Morgan Stanley goes over some of the same ground, with additional data included: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220128

[weatheriscool]

Job openings rose to 10.925 million in December

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Tue, February 1, 2022, 10:01 AM

The number of job openings and quits each held at historically elevated levels in December, with worker leverage remaining high as labor demand persisted.

Vacancies across the U.S. totaled 10.925 million at the end of 2021, the Labor Department said in its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS). (1) This compared to 10.775 million openings in November, according to the revised monthly print. Consensus economists had anticipated December vacancies would come in at 10.3 million, according to Bloomberg data.

The latest report represented a seventh straight month that job openings held above the 10 million level, underscoring the ongoing tightness in the labor market as employers struggle to find enough workers to fill positions. Vacancies had set an all-time high of nearly 11.1 million in July, and trended only slightly lower since then. Before the pandemic, job openings had averaged around 7 million per month throughout 2019.

And beneath the surface, churn within the labor market has also increased over the course of 2021. Another 4.3 million individuals quit their jobs in December, coming down only slightly from a record high of 4.5 million in November. And the quits rate was little changed at 2.9%, or just a tick below November's record rate of 3.0%. A higher quits rate typically indicates workers are more confident that they will be able to find new jobs after voluntarily leaving their current ones.

{snip}

(1) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jolts-jo ... 37642.html

[weatheriscool]

U.S. construction spending misses expectations in December

Tue, February 1, 2022, 10:27 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. construction spending increased less than expected in December as a solid rise in private projects was partially offset by a sharp decline in outlays on public projects. ... The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending rose 0.2% after advancing 0.6% in November.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending gaining 0.6%. Construction spending increased 9.0% on a year-on-year basis in December. It rose 8.2% in 2021.

Spending on private construction projects rose 0.7% in December. Outlays on residential construction surged 1.1%. ... Single-family homebuilding spending accelerated 2.1%, while outlays on multi-family housing projects rose 0.4%.

Homebuilding remains constrained by higher prices for building materials, especially framing lumber. The United States last November nearly doubled the duties on imported Canadian softwood lumber to 17.9% from 9% after a review of its anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders. Residential investment contracted for a third straight quarter in the fourth quarter.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-constr ... 28566.html

[weatheriscool]

U.S. manufacturing sector slows in January; employment rises - ISM

Tue, February 1, 2022, 10:05 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to a 14-month low in January amid an outbreak of COVID-19 infections, supporting views that economic growth lost steam at the start of the year.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its index of national factory activity dropped to a reading of 57.6 last month. That was the lowest reading since November 2020 and followed 58.8 in December.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dropping to 57.5.

The economy hit a soft patch in December, which appeared to have persisted into early 2022 as coronavirus infections, driven by the Omicron variant, raged across the country. The ensuing disruptions at businesses and schools have led economists to anticipate a sharp slowdown in job growth in January.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-manufa ... 03841.html

[weatheriscool]

January jobs report: Payrolls jump by 467,000 as unemployment rate rises to 4.0%

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Fri, February 4, 2022, 8:31 AM · 4 min read

U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January even as Omicron cases surged at the beginning of the new year. ... The Labor Department released its January jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Non-farm payrolls: +467,000 vs. +125,000 expected, +199,000 in December

-- Unemployment rate: 4.0% vs. 3.9% expected, 3.9% in December

-- Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.7% vs. 0.5% expected, 0.6% in December

-- Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.7% vs. 5.2% expected, 4.7% in December

The January jobs report marks the first to reflect a fuller impact from the Omicron variant. The highly contagious variant first discovered in the U.S. in late November had only just begun to spread by the time of the December jobs report survey period. Around the time of the January survey period in the middle of the month, new daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. had soared to a record.

The renewed jump in COVID-19 cases was expected to weigh especially heavily on the high-contact services sector, which has remained exceptionally vulnerable to rising infections levels.

Heading into Friday's report, estimates for the headline January print on non-farm payrolls ran the gamut as top Wall Street economists attempted to predict the latest virus-related speed bump to the labor market's recovery. At the high end, several economists polled by Bloomberg expected 250,000 jobs to return in January. However, a number of pundits also saw job growth turning negative for the first time since December 2020, with at least one economist forecasting a drop of 400,000 payrolls for January.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/january- ... 48590.html

[weatheriscool]

Inflation reaches 40-year high: January CPI posts 7.5% annual gain
Source: Yahoo! Finance

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, February 10, 2022, 8:31 AM

U.S. inflation accelerated in January, with prices across a wide range of goods and services soaring further amid lingering shortages and supply chain disruptions.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday morning registered a 7.5% annual gain in January. Consensus economists were looking for a 7.3% rise, according to Bloomberg data. This represented the fastest rise since 1982, as well as an acceleration from the 7.0% year-over-year increase seen in December. ... On a month-over-month basis, consumer price increased by 0.6%, matching the rate seen at the end of 2021.

Heading into Thursday's report, contributions to the headline jump in inflation were expected to be broad-based, reflecting widespread price pressures still reverberating across the recovering economy.

Energy prices have been a key contributor to the overall CPI and were up by more than 29% on a year-over-year basis in December, even as prices pulled back slightly compared to November. Natural gas prices jumped by a record in January and crude oil prices topped $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014, suggesting further contributions from the energy index to the January CPI. ... And even excluding more volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 6.0% in January over last year, also marking the biggest jump since 1982. The core CPI had risen by 5.5% in December.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer ... 44769.html



January CPI preview: Inflation likely to reach fresh 39-year high

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer ... 44769.html

[caltrek]

How Raising Interest Rates Curbs Inflation – and What Could Possibly Go Wrong
by Rodney Ramcharan

https://theconversation.com/how-raising ... ong-176426

Extract:

(The Conversation) It’s part of the mandated job of the U.S. Federal Reserve to prevent inflation from getting out of hand – and lowering it back to its preferred pace of about 2%.

To do that, the Fed has signaled it plans to raise interest rates several times this year – perhaps as many as five – beginning in March. And January’s faster-than-expected inflation figures suggest it may have to accelerate its overall timetable.

Will this work?
…
In keeping with our car example, if the price of computer chips – a critical input in cars these days – is increasing sharply primarily because of new pandemic-related lockdowns in Asia, then carmakers will have to pass on these higher prices to consumers in the form of higher car prices, regardless of interest rates.

In this case, the Fed might then have to dramatically raise interest rates and reduce demand substantially to slow the pace of inflation. At this point, no one really knows how high interest rates might need to climb in order to get inflation back down to around 2%.

[caltrek]

Investors Buy the Dip, but Can’t Say Bye-bye to Inflation
by Nick Rummel
February 11, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/investor ... inflation/

Introduction:

MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — Many Wall Street experts had hoped this would be the week that inflation finally began to drop, but data showing persistent price increases caused investors to pull away from early-week gains.

Investors also were kept on edge late Friday by worsening Russia-Ukraine tensions, which has caused oil prices to skyrocket over the last few weeks to about $94 a barrel, the highest price in years. Some analysts fear that if any military action actually occurs, that price could shoot up to higher than $150 a barrel.

By the week’s end the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed the gains made from Monday and Tuesday, losing 352 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq similarly gave up their own increases to fall 82 points and 307 points, respectively.

The biggest news of the week, yet again, was headline-grabbing inflation numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported that a 0.6% month-over-month rise in consumer prices last month. All told, inflation has risen to 7.5%, the highest yearly increase since 1982.

The price increases were mostly across the board, but some items stuck out like sore thumbs. Gasoline prices, for example, actually dropped 0.8% in January but are up a whopping 40% since early 2021. Used cars and trucks, a persistent culprit in inflation reports, gained 1.5% last month and now cost 40% more than they did in January 2021.

[wjfox]